Something interesting appears to be happening in Michigan, a state that Joe Biden must win if he wants a chance of staying in the White House. Unfortunately for him, he hasn't led the RealClearPolitics average in the state since mid-October.
Biden's declining poll numbers in Michigan, which has a significant population of Muslim Americans, may have been related to his public support of Israel following the October 7 terrorist attack in Israel by Hamas. In February, 13.2% of Democrat voters voted for "uncommitted" in the state's primary. Things were clearly not looking good for Biden in the state.
Two new polls have been released that show Biden with a two-point lead. The first was a Bloomberg/Morning Consult poll of registered voters conducted April 8-13, and the next was a CBS News/YouGov poll of likely voters conducted April 19-25. Both of these leads are within the margin of error, but they are the first polls showing Biden with a lead since early November, when an Emerson survey conducted from October 30 to November 4 showed Biden with a two-point lead.
For what it's worth, a new Fox News poll shows Trump up 3 points.
Joe Biden is most certainly aware of his political problems in Michigan, and for months Biden's pandering to the antisemitic wing of the Democratic Party did little to change the polls, suggesting that there was little that Biden could do to win them back. Could Biden's firmer stance against Israel be helping him? While it's a possibility, it's premature to draw definitive conclusions from just two polls within the margin of error. Currently, Trump still leads in the RealClearPolitics Average in Michigan. However, his advantage has gone from over five points in January to just 1.3 points today—a clear indicator that the political winds are shifting.
Related: More Bad News for Democrats Hoping to Turn Arizona Blue
And then there's the Robert F. Kennedy Jr. factor. Kennedy recently qualified to appear on the ballot in Michigan, and despite polls generally showing that Kennedy's inclusion in matchups hurts Biden, according to RealClearPolitics Trump performs better in a two-way matchup with Biden (+1.3.) than in a five-way matchup including Kennedy, Jill Stein, and Cornel West, with Biden and Trump now tied in the RCP average. To that point, the Fox News poll showing Trump up 3 points in a two-way matchup shows Trump up only 2 points in a five-way matchup—further proving that Kennedy's inclusion on the ballot in the state is actually hurting him.
Related: Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Will Be on the Michigan Ballot, But Does It Really Help Trump?
This doesn't necessarily mean that Trump is in trouble in Michigan—at least, not yet. While Biden's tougher stance on Israel may have moved the needle in his favor in Michigan, it's hard to say how long that will last. In reality, it is likely that many of these voters who abandoned Biden before were always going to vote for him anyway. It's also worth noting that both Biden and Hillary Clinton underperformed in the state compared to the polls, and Trump still appears to be in a stronger position today than he was four and eight years ago.
