WILL TRUMP BE OVERCONFIDENT TUESDAY NIGHT? Powerline’s Paul Mirengoff has watched a few presidential debates in his day and he notes that incumbents tend not to do well in the first contest of the quadrennial campaigns.

Mirengoff doesn’t suggest Trump will stumble for that reason but he does see some significant potential problems from a related factor, namely, OrangeManBad’s reliance on rhetoric, presence and (selected) facts to make his case.

Mirengoff, his Powerline colleagues John Hinderaker and Scott Johnson, and Glenn here at Instapundit are the three guys I have followed longer than anybody else in Blogdom, and I especially pay attention to Paul’s analysis before significant events like presidential debates.