NORTH KOREA MISSILE UPDATE: This morning at 8:18 AM Eastern Daylight I posted on the latest North Korean missile test. Based on those reports it was highly likely North Korea had test-fired a ballistic missile with ICBM characteristics. NBC reports U.S. PACOM initially thought the missile was an IRBM (inter-mediate range ballistic missile), so there may be some room for doubt. But if the missile was not an ICBM in the strictest definition, it is certainly an IRBM with extended reach.
Reuters is now reporting experts it has contacted say the test shot means Alaska is within range. The fact is, parts of Alaska (western Aleutians) have been within range of North Korean missiles for several years. So has Guam. This missile test indicates Anchorage and Fairbanks are within range.
From the Reuters report:
David Wright, co-director of the Global Security Program at the U.S.-based Union of Concerned Scientists, said the flight time and distance suggested the missile could travel about 6,700 km (4,163 miles), bringing all of Alaska into range.
4,200 miles gets very close to Oahu and Pearl Harbor.
I have no first hand data, but given the development program that accelerated in 2011, I think Wright’s estimate is very reasonable. However, I doubt this test demonstrated the missile’s maximum range. I’ve followed the North Korean program as closely as possible. I spent four years as a reservist in the J-3 Operations section of the Ballistic Missile Defense Organization. Like the wiki says, BMDO was the original name of the office guiding the U.S. missile defense effort. The Clinton Administration brought it back in 1993 because it didn’t like Strategic Defense Initiative (SDI), the name the Reagan Administration used. BMDO is now MDA, Missile Defense Agency.
Reuters says other analysts think the missile has a range of 8,000 km (4,970 miles) and quotes one South Korean by name. Check the map. In that case Pyongyang starts getting in the vicinity of the Pacific Northwest.
So the NorKs have a booster that has ICBM range. It doesn’t mean they can handle operational targeting, doesn’t mean they can mount an operational nuclear warhead on the missile, it doesn’t mean they have a warhead that can re-enter the atmosphere without breaking apart, and it doesn’t mean they can detonate a warhead that does reach the target area. But they are working on it.
It’s also worth noting that the vehicle transporting the missile was a modified Chinese truck built to haul timber. North Korea took a civilian vehicle and turned it into a transporter-erector-launcher (TEL). That sends a message about the limits of sanctions when a regime is intent on acquiring ballistic missiles and nuclear weapons.
The test in February of a solid fuel IRBM featured a launch from a tracked TEL.
RELATED: Here are some photos of the anti-missile missiles in the U.S. inventory.
The Patriot PAC-3 is for short-range defense. This photo dates from 2014.
The Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) has a much longer range. THAAD batteries are now deplyed in Guam and South Korea.
The USN has several Standard Missiles with anti-missile capabilities. Here’s a Standard Missile 3 (SM-3).
The Ground-Based Interceptor (GBI) is the long range interceptor employed in the Ground-based Mid-course Defense (GMD) system.