May 26, 2009

GETTING READY FOR INFLATION:

The government is spending trillions of dollars using a broad swathe of initiatives to fight deflation, which is the opposite of inflation. And therein lies the rub. Should the government’s efforts succeed, and there are some signs that they may, the huge new debt issuance that’s supporting them could lead to a spike in inflation that we have not experienced since the 1970s.

The deftness and agility that will be required in the pivot from fighting deflation to fighting inflation is tremendous. In essence, the government has to provide enough monetary stimuli to get the economy firmly on the growth path, while standing ready to reverse course without stepping on the recovery. At USAA, our view is that the government will err on the side of letting inflation run a while, rather than risk a double-dip recession.

Reader Meghan Hammond, who sent the link, comments: “I’ve also never heard ‘deftness and agility’ in reference to any government entity.”

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