February 11, 2009

MICHAEL BARONE: REPUBLICANS TRAIL OBAMA DEMS BY ONE POINT IN POLL — ANTI-STIMULUS PUSH IS WORKING. “Astonishing news on the generic ballot question. Pollster Scott Rasmussen reports that Democrats are currently ahead of Republicans by only 40 percent to 39 percent. Given that this generic ballot question over the years has tended to understate Republicans’ performances in actual elections, one gathers that if the 2010 election for House seats were held today, Republicans would win or come close to winning a majority of seats—which is to say, they would gain about 40 seats. By way of comparison, they gained 52 seats when they won their majority in 1994. This result may just be a momentary blip, which will pass away as quickly as it appeared, and we are a long, long, long way from the November 2010 elections. But if I were a Democratic member of Congress in even a marginally marginal district, I would be just a little bit worried.” If the economy improves before 2010, this may still be an issue. If the economy doesn’t improve by 2010, then it will really be an issue.

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