HMM: Are Democrats Cornered in Illinois? “One of the most surprising results of the 2020 election was the defeat, in Illinois, of a state constitutional amendment to permit a progressive income tax. The Graduated Income Tax Amendment would have eliminated the Illinois constitutional requirement that tax rates remain flat across incomes. Its defeat is likely the most important political event for the state since I moved here 18 years ago. The proposed change in the state constitution was an effort by the dominant Democratic Party to continue its model of high taxes and high spending to support the base of its political muscle—public-sector unions. The party retains control of the legislature and the governor’s office, but it is politically cornered. Legislatively, it faces a choice between a reform agenda that would undermine its political base or a substantial tax increase on every working citizen.”

Any tax hike big enough to cover Illinois black hole of debt and unfunded liabilities would likely worsen the ongoing exodus from Illinois, particularly among high-income earners. In other words, the expected revenues would never materialize.

Reform is the only way out, and the least likely for Democrats to pursue.