October 29, 2020

KEEP AN EYE ON MINNESOTA: Two new polls today out from Minnesota, which has been barely polled this cycle. Biden ahead 47-42 and 48-45. Even more interesting, the former poll, by Survey USA, shows Biden and Trump even in favorability, 44-44, with Trump way ahead in “extremely favorable,” 27% to 16%, suggesting greater enthusiasm for Trump. Seems to me these numbers put Trump in striking distance, and if I were going to expect any big surprise this year, it would be in the state that saw the worst summer rioting. Turnout is a huge wildcard, and Minnesota always seems to disappoint Republicans, but this is one to keep an eye on.

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