IT’S 2004 ALL OVER AGAIN: It’s all about Ohio.

Ohio voters traditionally rewarded Republican and Democratic gubernatorial and US Senate candidates who appealed broadly across the state. A presidential candidate who could appeal beyond his party’s base also secured a majority of Ohioans. Trump is a great example of this reality.

Specifically, unlike most Republicans who ran in 2016, Trump took orthodox views on two key issues that broadened his appeal beyond the Republican base. First, he attacked free trade agreements beloved by the Republican establishment because he felt those agreements hurt blue-collar workers in Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Next, he didn’t embrace right-to-work, which is viewed as anti-union by many blue-collar workers. Rank-and-file union workers in Ohio and the other blue-collar state voters felt increasingly uncomfortable with the growing progressive, anti-America sentiment in the Democratic party. They saw Trump as a Republican they finally could support.

The support from those unionized workers and their families helped Trump beat Hillary Clinton in Ohio by more than 8 percent. Trump also converted blue-collar voters in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, too, which enabled him to squeak out victories in the ‘blue wall’. Those states pushed him over the 270-Electoral Vote threshold he needed to win The White House.

There is little evidence those voters are going to abandon Trump in 2020.

Don’t get cocky.