June 25, 2020

IS THE RISE IN COVID CASES A RESULT OF THE BLM PROTESTS? A friend in Texas writes:

So, your sort of sideways point that nobody is willing to finger the protests for the spike in cases is probably correct. I did some work on this about a week ago, but am not willing to write about it myself, being a corporate tool. Math: Median time from exposure to symptoms (if you get them) is 5-6 days. Median time from symptoms to hospitalization is 7 days. Point is, hospitalizations should start to increase ~12 days from a super spreader event. Well, that is exactly when cases started to spike here in Austin. I graphed the “Texas reopening” orders against the Austin MSA hospitalization graph. No effect, until exactly 12 days after the first big demonstration. Here you go.

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