NEITHER THE MODELS OR THE MODELERS HAVE COVERED THEMSELVES WITH GLORY, BUT THE EXPERT CLASS AS A WHOLE HAS BEEN A PANTLOAD OF FAIL UNDER COVID-19: Can we trust Covid modelling? More evidence from Sweden.

When people finally got to look under the hood of the famous Imperial College study, they found twisted and tangled code. And most of the model’s predictions bear little resemblance to what is actually happening. Some defend the models by saying that their predictions turned out to be wrong only because governments imposed harsher restrictions than the coders expected.

If so, we have a perfect experiment. Sweden did not close borders, shut down schools, businesses, restaurants, gyms or shopping centres and did not issue stay at home orders. So it should be the one country where the models fit. Let’s see. . . . At this moment, when the models suggested that Sweden would have 30 to 40 patients fighting over every available ICU bed, there is spare capacity in beds, equipment and personnel of around 30 percent.

Pantload.