DID NEW YORK CITY’S SHUTDOWN FAIL? OR WAS THERE NEVER, IN FACT, A REAL SHUTDOWN AT ALL?
The Metropolitan Transit Authority’s decision to cut back its train service to accommodate the reduced demand may have indeed helped to shore up the agency’s financial position, but it most likely accelerated the spread of coronavirus throughout the city. That’s because the resulting reduction in train service tended to maintain passenger density, the key factor driving viral propagation (Goldbaum and Cook 2020). How ironic it is that, from the public health perspective, the optimal policy would have been to double – maybe even triple – the frequency of train service. The agency’s decision to convert multiple express lines into local service only enhanced the risk of contagion (Goldbaum 2020).
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Related: Here’s How Much Downstate New York Is Skewing the United States’ Coronavirus Numbers.