March 26, 2020

HMM: The US’s COVID-19 Death Rate Is Far Below the Rates in Italy and Spain. I wouldn’t get too excited about this. My guess is that it’s a combination of (1) Lag, since the disease got here later thanks to the early travel ban with China, and people usually don’t die until three or four weeks after they’re infected; and (2) the US having more ICU beds per capita, so that it will take us longer to hit the saturation threshold above which the mortality rate goes way up (I think this is the big difference, actually). I’d love to be wrong, but I think that’s what’s going on.

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