MEANWHILE, OVER AT VODKAPUNDIT: After Action Report: Super Tuesday’s Lessons.

South Carolina voted just five days ago. The week prior — the date I’ve highlighted on the chart — polls seemed to confirm that Biden’s longterm decline in SC had accelerated, maybe into a collapse. Meanwhile, Sanders had been inching up for months. By February 21, the two candidates were in a statistical tie.

But that’s not what happened on primary day, not by a longshot. The final result was that Biden did slightly better than his best poll numbers during the entire race, all the way back in November. Texas tells a similar story. In polls there, Biden appeared as though his campaign had stumbled like the Three Stooges trying to walk across a field full of rakes. And yet, he won convincingly on primary day.

Forecasting guru Harry Enten tweeted that the move to Biden in the hours — mere hours — before Super Tuesday was triple the normal bounce after a big win like South Carolina.

Much more at the link, but this one is just for our VIP members. The VODKAPUNDIT promo code will still get you a discount, if you’ve been thinking of joining.

My regular column is coming up later this afternoon, but last night’s drunkblog on top of the dreaded CPAC CPLAGUE led to a slow start.