February 18, 2020

ANALYSIS: TRUE. Political Pundits Have No Idea What They’re Talking About.

Warren’s collapse reveals the sorry state of today’s political media. From the perspective of voters who watch cable news and take seriously the so-called analysis and punditry they hear from so-called political experts in the media, Warren’s downfall is a shocking development. But it’s only the latest of many examples of said “experts” having absolutely no idea what they’re talking about and showing why no one should take them seriously.

Warren’s campaign, oddly enough, made this very point in a memo it sent to supporters (and the New York Times) ahead of the New Hampshire primary—in which Warren finished a distant fourth and failed to win any delegates. “People who are predicting what will happen a week from now are the same people who a year ago predicted that Beto O’Rourke was a frontrunner for the nomination,” wrote campaign manager Roger Lau.

Lau makes a legitimate point, but it applies to his own candidate as well. Warren, who made history as the “first woman of color” employed by Harvard Law School, was once widely touted by political pundits as the candidate to beat.

Not that their analysis was based on anything other than conventional wisdom. For most of 2019, betting markets viewed Warren as the second most likely candidate to win the nomination, behind former vice president Joe Biden. After New Hampshire, betting markets rank Biden fourth, at 9.2 percent. Warren is sixth, at 2.2 percent, behind Hillary Clinton.

To be fair, being behind Hillary Clinton is a lot safer than having her behind you.

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