MORE REPORTS that Saddam’s inner circle is defecting. I don’t know how reliable they are, but their simple existence makes defections more likely in the future.

Then there’s this report of a recent assassination attempt aimed at Saddam. I don’t vouch for these stories being true. But I hope they are.

UPDATE: Reader Gary Haubold writes:

The Instapundit just observes that:

MORE REPORTS that Saddam’s inner circle is defecting. I don’t know how reliable they are, but their simple existence makes defections more likely in the future . . . . . . .

. . . . . but that’s only half the story. In terms of game theory: (1) it’s certain that IF the United States goes after Saddam that he’s finished, but (2) given the problems with the United Nations and anti-war Democrats, it’s not certain that the United States will go after Saddam full-bore. If (2) did not exist and everyone knew for certain the United States was going after Saddam full-bore, then odds are WE WOULDN’T ACTUALLY HAVE TO DO ANYTHING because it would be so much likelier that either Saddam would run for his life or else one of his closest friends would kill him.

I’m all for open debate and intellectual honesty and I wouldn’t question the patriotism of anyone opposing the war – but I do think that we should all recognize the damage that war protestors are doing to the war effort simply by protesting – they’re not operating in a vacuum, and the more that the Iraqi government appreciates and fears our seriousness of purpose, the less likely we are to have to actually have to engage in hard-core fighting.

That’s my thought for the day.

Yes, it’s this sort of calculation that adds irony to Vegetius’ statement that “If you want peace, prepare for war.” Or maybe it’s not irony at all.

UPDATE: Reader Matt Sitar disagrees:

I think the war effort has actually benefitted from much of the balking from Congress and the UN. Had the US been given free rein from the outset, there still would have been a period of time where the US and its allies would have prepared for the war. This would have given Saddam a similar amount of time, during which he could move whatever biological and chemical (and perhaps even nuclear) weaponry he has to strategic locations.

As it is, though, with the possibility of resumed inspections, any biological or chemical weapons need to stay hidden. Meanwhile, the US is free to continue preparations for war. So when the time comes, the US will be ready.

The outcome of all the debating, in the UN, in Congress, in the US, is uncertain. This can be a good thing. If Saddam knows he is a dead man, he will try to inflict as much damage as possible, both to the US and to Iraq (he strikes me as the “if I can’t have it, no one can” sort of person). Uncertainty forces him to consider many other options and many other outcomes.

This is an interesting theory, and I’d like to believe it, not least because it meshes with a theory I’ve written on, that the unpredictability of democratic decision-making is inherently advantageous. But I’m not sure I’m convinced. Since Vietnam, every adversary of the United States has felt that it could neutralize American military power so long as it could get people marching against the war in America. That has led them to do things they wouldn’t have tried otherwise.

ANOTHER UPDATE: Austin Bay agrees with Gary Haubold’s approach, more or less. So, pretty much, does Tom Friedman, though his final paragraph proves that he doesn’t understand his own argument fully.