HMM: Is Elon Musk Osborning His Model 3?

First, a little background on The Osborne Effect:

In 1981, Osborne introduced a machine that was, in effect, the first commercially available portable computer, the Osborne 1.

Sales took off, reaching 10,000 units per month. This might not sound like much by our smartphone standards, but thirty years ago it was a truly phenomenal success.

This wasn’t enough for our fearless entrepreneur. In 1983, he told anyone who’d listen: Just you wait! I have two superior models in the works, the Executive and the Vixen.

Customers took his advice. They stopped buying the current model and waited…and waited… In 1985, the company ran out of cash and went bankrupt.

And now back to today:

The parallel with Tesla’s Model Y announcement needs little elaboration. Musk finally announces Tesla’s CUV, a model many will would prefer to the Model 3 sedan. No trouble if both are available simultaneously or in close succession. But the Model Y is promised for the “last quarter” of 2020, and the base model for “early 2021” — past Tesla performance easily explains the skeptical quote marks. First deliveries are 18 months away and manufacturing plans are glowingly vague.

This could be Tesla’s riskiest transition ever.

Musk is rightly known for escaping tight situations, so predictions might be a fool’s game.