CONCENTRATE AND ASK AGAIN: Are Democrats Set To Win 2020, Or Are They Facing A McGovern-Style Blowout?

Late last year, at a New York City economic-policy conference, I ran into a friend who held a senior Clinton White House position. He was certain that Trump — whom he dislikes — would be easily reelected. I disagreed: with low approval ratings and a quarrelsome, unpredictable personality, Trump was undermining his 2020 chances and making it difficult to repeat his electoral romp through Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, and Wisconsin. He was alienating, not attracting, independent voters.

My friend countered that Trump’s base remained solid, and his fellow Democrats would probably do something foolish, like nominate an extreme progressive. In 2020, he expected another 1972 McGovern-style blowout.

He might be right — but I’m not sure. The Democrats seem much smarter than that. Potentially.

2016 was decided by late-breaking Obama-to-Trump voters in the Rust Belt. If Trump can continue to deliver on jobs and wages, it might not matter how smartened up the Democrats get — assuming they don’t stay dumb and keep giving full rein to the crazies.