April 16, 2018

BLUE WAVE? 2018 vote margin narrows as Democratic engagement slips.

A 10-point Democratic lead among all adults narrows to 4 points among registered voters and 5 points among those who say they’re both registered and certain to vote; neither of those is statistically significant. In January, by contrast, Democrats held similar margins in all three groups – 13, 12 and 15 points, respectively.

Factors at play include a slide in self-reported registration among Democrats, which is a sign of waning engagement; consolidation among Republicans of their base; and better results for the GOP among less-educated Americans generally, and non-college-educated white women in particular.

Among other results, the poll, produced for ABC by Langer Research Associates, finds more than three-quarters of Americans looking for a congressional candidate who agrees with them on gun policy.

Somewhere, Bill Clinton shakes his head at today’s Democrats.