YES. NEXT QUESTION? Are Israel and Iran Stuck on a Collision Course?

With respect to Israel, the Islamic Republic until recently maintained a policy of having sticks along Israel’s borders to poke at Israel (such as Hezbollah and Hamas) in order to deter Israel from ever considering an attack on Iran’s nuclear weapons plants at home. Now, the Revolutionary Guard appears to have become more ambitious, and is building a transnational Shia militia group in Syria and across the Middle East along with military installations, precision missile factories and Shia proxy forces that are answerable directly to the Revolutionary Guard and not to Assad. Their ambitions are to have Shia militias on Israel’s borders with thousands of precision missiles aimed at Israeli critical infrastructure. Just like North Korea has thousands of missiles threatening South Korea, Iran through its proxies can similarly try to threaten Israel.

The Islamic Republic has supplemented its moves on the ground with rhetoric calling for the liquidation of the state of Israel in 25 years. Iran leads the “Resistance” against Israel, a movement that includes Hezbollah, Hamas and growing numbers of foreign and local militias in Syria. Israeli leaders worry that the Islamic Republic has a long-term goal to surround Israel’s borders: in the north, Hezbollah and now Syria; in the east, Hamas joined by some disillusioned Fatah members in the West Bank (and maybe someday a post-Hashemite pro-Iran Jordan); in the south, Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad in Gaza.

At the moment, the Revolutionary Guard is riding high after its successes in Syria and elsewhere, which is stoking the fears of Sunni Arab states and Israel. But extrapolating current successes into the future is highly uncertain.

Incoming National Security Advisor John Bolton had a few bold things to say about Iran back in August.