BOOM: Limited Strikes on North Korea Are Past Due.

This comes from retired US Navy Captain David Allan Adams:

Whether North Korea can be deterred is a pivotal unanswered question. The trouble is that many of the same experts who are calling for the United States to lean on diplomacy and deterrence also say that Kim Jong Un “is not rational.” [iv] These leaders either failed or have forgotten their basic political science courses on deterrence. Renowned Harvard Professor Graham Allison explains in his Essence of Decision (Little Brown, 1971) why deterrent strategies require rational decision makers to succeed. In practice, Allison’s theories have proven right time and again. The success or failure of the U.S. North Korean policy hinges almost completely on the rationality of the North Korean regime.

Those who call for diplomatic solutions and a posture to deter North Korean aggression while at the same time calling out Pyongyang’s conduct as irrational cannot have it both ways. Allison and others argue that Kim is rational, although erratic. [v] Allison goes on to claim that if confronted even with limited military strikes, the North Korean dictator would unleash a suicidal war on the peninsula. This is hardly a rational response to measured U.S. military action.

The truth is, nobody knows for sure whether Kim is a “crazy fat kid” [vi] or a rational actor cleverly playing to his regime elites’ notion of their nation’s best interest. The distinction, however, is critical. Since no one knows for sure, the only way to absolutely discern the true nature of North Korea’s provocative decisions may be to gauge the regime’s response to limited military action.

China should take the lead on reining in their dangerous ally before our hand is forced.