QUESTION ASKED: The Beginning of the End of Putinism?

Putin may have cause for concern. The recent protests, complaining about corruption, are materially different in substance than the 2011 and 2012 protests that focused on election fraud, although the issues are related. The latest round of protests has taken place in a worse economic and political environment.

Moreover, the luster of the nationalism aroused by Putin’s geopolitical adventures in Ukraine, Syria and elsewhere may have begun to fade as the conflicts in those regions continue and as their economic cost rises. Russia’s increased negative image in the world, and in the West in particular, may be taking its toll on the Russian polity as the effects of the corruption exposed in the Panama Papers and by the impressive investigative activity of opposition leader Alexei Navalny starts to have an impact. This is in addition to the impact of the massive Russian sports cheating scandal exposed by the WADA investigations.

Western sanctions have been meaningful but not for the purpose for which they were implemented, i.e., to reverse the annexation of Crimea. The sanctions may have helped foster the economic conditions which might over time bring about political change in Russia. Real incomes in Russia have been steadily falling for several years despite relatively stable energy prices. The number of Russians living below the poverty line has increased by 15 percent in the past two years. The number of billionaires and millionaires has increased, and evidence of their extravagant lifestyles has become increasingly available on the internet.

A corrupt and heavily centralized state has always been good for the 1%.