PUTTING THE A.I. IN C.I.A.:The Data-Driven Transformation of Intelligence.

Data correlation has always been part of intelligence tradecraft, however, it is largely still a product of analysts laboriously reading through of mountains of intelligence reports. There is a limit to the type of reports available to analysts, who have limited time to make assessments. There is a better way for analysts to tackle intelligence problems given the amount of data that exists—or could exist with the right focus—on just about anything or anyone.

Imagine if in the post-mortem of the Crimea invasion analysts, working with data scientists, could take the datasets tied to the missed indicators and fold them into algorithms that drive artificial intelligence (AI). This AI could then help analysts predict future outcomes and focus resources. As this human-machine ”red” teaming matures, AI could learn to think like an adversary by looking for data, in specific combinations and quantities, to anticipate when little green men will be on the move, for example.

A very real problem in the intelligence community is a tendency towards consensus-building — squashing the insights of more imaginative analysts.

A.I.-driven analysis might not be any better than the traditional kind, but it might provide renegade analysts with an electronic imprimatur for breaking through the consensus.