July 31, 2016

NOT MUCH OF A BOUNCE FOR HILLARY, according to the USC Dornsife/LA Times tracking poll:

Screen Shot 2016-07-31 at 1.23.07 PM

Meanwhile, Nate Silver has the chance of winning at 51% Clinton, 49% Trump.

UPDATE: That’s Silver’s PollsPlus forecast. The NowCast has Trump lagging badly, 56.8 to 43.2.

Correction, that’s the PollsOnly. PollsPlus is 60.9 and 39.1. Silver’s site doesn’t play very well with my NoScript plugin.

ANOTHER UPDATE: “Our ‘now-cast’ has flipped back toward Clinton, but long-term models haven’t really budged yet… not enough data.” Stay tuned.

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