MICKEY KAUS: WHAT REALLY TERRIFIES DEMS ABOUT NY-O9.
It’s not that Obama’s ratings are so low that even this historically Democratic district decided to send a message of disapproval. Obama’s ratings may pick up, after all.
It’s not that Israel and gay marriage emerged as medium sized ”wedge issues” (translation: issues) that drove some Democrats in a quirky district heavily populated by Orthodox Jews to vote for Republican Bob Turner. Few other districts look like NY-9. ….
It’s the possibility that the Democrats favorite issue–-Social Security-–didn’t work to save them because Obama, too, has embraced cutting Social Security and Medicare in “some undefined ‘everything on the table’ entitlement reform,” as Weigel puts it. Could it be that the differences between Obama’s Medicare cuts and GOP Rep. Paul Ryan’s Medicare cuts–differences that seem so significant to policy analysts in Washington (and to me)–don’t have much salience in the crude argumentation of direct-mail electioneering? Now that’s scary for a Dem. After decades of pledging not to touch the two sacred programs, it’s beginning to look as if Democrats can’t just suddenly agree to pull trillions out of Social Security and Medicare and expect voters to maintain their reflexive loyalties.
Yep.
UPDATE: Obama Falls Below 50% — In California.
Related: GOP Candidate Wins By 20 Points In Nevada Race. Not a great pair of special elections for the Dems.
More: Politico: Twin defeats spark Democratic fears. “In New York, Republican Bob Turner soundly defeated Democrat David Weprin in a House contest that – in the view of party leaders, at least — featured an anemic urban machine, distracted labor unions, and disloyal voters. In Nevada, a consequential state for the president’s re-election strategy, Democrats suffered a runaway loss rooted in a weak showing in Reno’s Washoe County, a key bellwether. . . . In a high-level campaign conference call Tuesday afternoon, Democratic donors and strategists commiserated over their disappointment in Obama. A source on the call described the mood as ‘awful.’”
New 2012 slogan: Re-elect President Millstone!