In early 2001, in the wake of the closely contested 2000 presidential election, I wrote an Introduction to The Almanac of American Politics called “The 49 percent nation.” Not only was the popular vote for president 49% to 49%, but in each of the three preceding congressional elections, both parties had received either 48% or 49%, and Bill Clinton had won the preceding presidential election with 49%. We were pretty evenly divided.
As we are these days. In 2016, President Trump won his majority in the Electoral College by winning Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin by a total of 77,000 votes out of 137 million cast. Joe Biden won his majority in the Electoral College by — and this is an approximation, subject to change and probably upward adjustment in the final count — by winning Georgia, Arizona, and Wisconsin (there it is again) by a total of 49,000 votes. Those narrow margins gave each of them their 306 electoral votes in their respective victories. . . .
Why the polls were wrong is an interesting question worthy of exploration in multiple columns to come. But the results speak for themselves and make it plain that even though a large majority of Americans vote straight-party tickets, they are also closely enough divided between the parties that even a few split tickets can, and usually have, given us divided government.
This year’s Senate elections are another example. Like most pundits this fall, I said it was likely the Democrats would win a Senate majority. Polls showed multiple Republican senators trailing their Democratic challenger and only one likely Republican gain. The Senate would go from 53-47 Republican, many predicted, to 54-46 Democratic.
Didn’t happen. Last winter, before COVID-19 and the rush of polls, I predicted that voting in Senate races would resemble the 2016 presidential election and that the new Senate would look much like the old. That’s largely what happened. The one incumbent Democrat in a Trump 2016 state, Alabama, lost. So did one of two incumbent Republicans in a Clinton state, Colorado. The other, Susan Collins in Maine, who has long run ahead of party lines, won solidly, even though every poll showed her behind. But that was offset by the defeat of a Republican incumbent with a history of running behind party lines in Arizona, a narrow Trump 2016 state where Biden currently leads. In Georgia, another narrow Trump 2016 state, there will be two January runoffs in races in which no candidate got 50%.
My conclusion, in 2000 and now, is that neither party owns the future, and that, even if you believe (as I do) that both sides this year ran suboptimal campaigns, they do tend to adjust and remain competitive over time. Twenty years later, we’re still living in a 49% nation.
Sadly, we’re doing so with the worst political class in our nation’s history.