Isaac Strengthening; Florida Panhandle Most Likely Target
First things first. Today will be an important day in Isaac’s forecast history, as the computer models hopefully coalesce around a consensus track. This weekend will be even more important. I’ll update this blog as often as I can, but for the very latest updates, follow me on Twitter — @brendanloy.
Isaac’s wind speed is up to 60 mph as of 11:00 AM EDT, and its inner core is finally getting a bit better organized — though the window for further organization will end soon, as it reaches Haiti, and won’t really begin again until it pops off Cuba on Sunday. From the NHC’s discussion:
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT DATA AND SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT ISAAC HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. WHILE THE CIRCULATION CENTER REMAINS ELONGATED EAST-TO-WEST WITH MULTIPLE EMBEDDED VORTICITY MAXIMA…THE LARGE CENTRAL AREA OF LIGHT WINDS HAS SHRUNK AS THE STRONGEST WINDS MOVE CLOSER TO THE CENTER. …
WHILE THE ORGANIZATION HAS IMPROVED…THE STRUCTURE OF ISAAC STILL DOES NOT FAVOR RAPID INTENSIFICATION DESPITE A VERY FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WIND PATTERN. THE EARLY PART OF THE INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS A LITTLE MORE STRENGTHENING THAN EARLIER…AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT ISAAC COULD BE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH WHEN IT REACHES HISPANIOLA. LAND INTERACTION WILL LIMIT THE INTENSITY FROM 24-48 HR…AND THIS PART OF THE FORECAST MAY NEED SOME ADJUSTMENT AFTER IT IS SEEN WHAT STRUCTURE ISAAC HAS AFTER CROSSING HISPANIOLA. ISAAC SHOULD STRENGTHEN OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO…WITH THE FORECAST SHOWING THE CYCLONE BECOMING A HURRICANE BEFORE REACHING THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.
At present, the forecast is for “just” a Category 1 hurricane to hit the northeast Gulf Coast on Tuesday night or Wednesday morning. The NHC believes the roughly 24-30 hours Isaac will have over the Gulf before landfall won’t be enough time to become a major hurricane. They’re probably right, but it’s important to remember that hurricane intensity forecasting is an inexact science, especially in the 4-5 day range. Dr. Jeff Masters thinks a major hurricane Isaac is still not out of the question: “It is possible that Isaac could be approaching Category 3 strength by the time it makes landfall on Tuesday on the Gulf Coast, as suggested by the latest 06Z run of the HWRF model.”
Meanwhile, as I mentioned in a brief post earlier, the computer models’ westward shift yesterday — which had caused some folks, myself included, to fear that the “trend” might result in a New Orleans landfall consensus by today — has instead reversed itself, edging slightly back east. More importantly, the confidence of the forecast has increased somewhat, as the computer models are coming into better agreement. New Orleans is still technically within the NHC’s cone of uncertainty, but no trusted computer model is calling for a landfall west of Mobile, AL:
This is good news for New Orleans, which is still America’s most vulnerable city to flooding from a major hurricane, and also good news in general because it means Isaac will have less time over water to restrengthen after exiting Cuba. It’s not such good news, of course, for anyone between Mobile and Tallahassee, which now appears to be the most likely landfall zone. (The Panama City area is where the current official forecast track takes Isaac, though as the NHC reminds us: “IT IS IMPORTANT NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT TRACK DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTIES IN THE FORECAST AND THE FACT THAT ISAAC HAS A LARGE AREA OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH IT.”)
Look at the track of Charley. The safest place to be is where the weather dudes predict landfall more than 24 hours out.
Why have we not seen headlines screaming “REPUBLICANS HATE PANHANDLERS!”?
It’s too early to say ‘good news’ for
New Orleans especially 7 years after Katrina.
Where ever it hits I really believe it’s going to be major.
I think most people know by now that Issac means, God laughs,God will laugh.
‘Because you disdained all my counsel,And would have none of my rebuke,
I also will laughat your calamity;I will mock when your terror comes,
When your terror comes like a storm,And your destruction comes like a whirlwind,When distress and anguish come upon you.’
Proverbs 1:25-27
Don’t you know that hurricanes never, ever hit Tampa? All the locals know this. It’s because of a old Indian blessing (or was it a curse?)and because the way Tampa Bay is shaped and because St. Pete is on a peninsula and there’s metal deposits under the Sunshine Skyway Bridge that repel hurricanes and there’s also a ley line with negative ion flux that keeps the Bay safe.
(Yes, one did hit us in 1921, but that was a fluke. It can’t possibly happen again.)
Marcel, you are a LOSER, and so is anyone else who hopes for a major hurricane landfall in a populated area. May the God of your Proverbs help the shriveled, pathetic souls of everyone who thinks like you.
“Here’s a graphical representation of what I mean. To emphasize, I AM NOT A METEOROLOGIST, AND THIS IS NOT A FORECAST. I’m just pondering the scenario that would keep me up at night if I were Tampa Mayor Bob Buckhorn:”
That’s right. You are not a meteorologist. You don’t NEED to be a “meteorologist” to come dadgum close to determining where the windstorm will be at any given time. Studying the windstorms for 40 years will give you roughly the same expertise; adding the NOAA satellite water vapor loops will let you get downright accurate, assuming your livelihood depends upon such accuracy, as mine does. In Florida.
The windstorm will have virtually no effect upon the west coast of Florida. Might be some rain, a smidge of wind — maybe 20 mph — and that’s it.
That graphic scare-cast of yours is, in my opinion, akin to yelling “FIRE!!!” at the top of your lungs in a crowded theater.
Why, for heavens sakes, would you even attempt such a post???? Why?!?!? You don’t know what you’re doing, you “disclaim” any expertise, but still insist upon terrifying people with that doofus graphic of yours, which is BASED UPON NOTHING AT ALL!!!
Next time you’re tempted to show off expertise you don’t have, don’t.
Brendan,
I think for your worst case scenario to even have a chance, there would need to be a cold front bearing down on the Florida peninsula at about the time Isaac starts heading up the coast. That’s the only way I think the hurricane would be pulled suddenly east. But if this were the case, then I think we’d see wind shear taking some of the juice out of the storm, weakening it pretty significantly.
So, I really can’t see it playing out that way. Checking where the frontal boundaries are a couple of days before the storm is due in the area should give some clues, though.
Hi Amy ,Lets hope and pray that Issac doesn’t turn a whole bunch of people over here in the Gulf area including myself into losers of everything we have.
God keeps warning US and we keep ignoring Him and that spells disaster,guaranteed.
The danger to New Orleans, just like with Katrina, will be if the/a storm finds more political corruption built into the levies to exploit. Katrina didn’t flood New Orleans, a hundred or so years of graft and corruption in the building and maintenance of the levies caused the breach.
As for Isaac, things will still be up in the air 8 am Monday. You can’t predict the details of a storm until it is in the Gulf proper.
NukemHill…
Go look up Charley. Those of us that were suddenly in that one’s path can see it easily. Charley was kinda link the Spanish Inquisition – no one expected it.
Luther and NukemHill, a look at the latest spaghetti model map shows that my worst-case scenario is not insane or absurd. It’s not likely, as I explicitly acknowledged numerous times in my post, but it’s not impossible. All of the models agree that Isaac will take a right turn at some point, in response to the winds ahead of a trough of low pressure (i.e. a “frontal boundary”). The question is WHEN that will occur. If it occurs sooner than the models currently project, the scenario I presented could happen. Indeed, there’s one model — I’m not sure which one it is — on the above-linked “spaghetti” map showing just that. Again, AGAIN, I’m not saying it’s likely. But it’s by no means meteorologically or geologically impossible.
It certainly would not be unprecedented for the models, even the “trusted” ones, to “miss” on something like this, and have the right turn happen significantly earlier than expected, with little warning. My entire point is not that I’m predicting this, but that the uncertainty is alarming. Planners have to prepare for the “realistic worst case,” right? Well, here, I think the difference between likely case and worst-case will remain more divergent than usual, later than usual. If Isaac is just a little bit offshore, moving basically parallel to the coast, such an unexpected-but-not-implausible “early turn” could very rapidly change the forecast for Tampa, without adequate time to react. That’s why I don’t envy the decision those local officials have to make, about the RNC and everything else.
Kathy is right: Remember Charley. Or, thinking back a little further, Opal. That’s a storm that made landfall in a very unexpected location due to a last-minute right turn. It can happen. It’s not a crazy idea. And the only purpose of my map was to illustrate what I was talking about, not scare people. I very specifically used the terms “what-if” and “hypothetical,” precisely to avoid giving the impression that this is a forecast of any kind. It’s an illustration of a scenario that’s unlikely but that concerns me.
And Luther, if forecasting “windstorms” were as easy as you say, the best meteorologists in the world wouldn’t average 250-mile errors in their five-day forecasts. Predicting hurricanes’ movements is NOT easy, it’s very hard, particularly with certain storms — and this has been an especially difficult to predict storm thus far, what with its odd central structure and its challenging track angles, which makes small differences in track hugely important to intensity (because of land interaction). You are vastly overconfident in your predictive abilities based on reading water vapor maps and such. All the data the NHC is collecting, all these computer models they’re using, all that stuff exists for a reason, and it’s not to throw money down a hole, it’s because they improve the forecast and make this difficult task just a little bit easier.
Just looked at the track map for Opal; I may be thinking of another storm. I was only 13 in 1995, so my memory is not the most reliable.
I know there was a Gulf storm that made an unexpected last-minute right turn that resulted in a significantly different landfall point than expected, but I’m not sure now which one it was.
Regardless, Charley is certainly a good example of the broader point about uncertainty, if not necessarily this specific issue. I was actually out camping with my then-fiancee, away from the Internet and TV, when Charley made her move, so I don’t remember the run-up to that storm is an much detail as many others. But I do know it caught people off guard.
Actually, Tampa Mayor Bob Buckhorn is a Dem lackey and is probably praying for this hurricane to hit atlanta so he can all off the RNC convention.
Current NWS forecast for Tampa on Monday: Scattered showers and thunderstorms, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 9am. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 88. Windy, with a east northeast wind 25 to 30 mph, with gusts as high as 41 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.
I think Haiti will suffer the worst from this storm. Even as a rather disorganized tropical storm it could cause trouble down there.
I don’t think there’s much chance of this turning into another Charlie. Charlie was already well organized as a cat-2 before it crossed Cuba. I think there is a better chance of this one fizzling out before it reaches the Gulf than becoming stronger than a cat-1.
Brendan,
Forgive me if I came across as dismissive or pooh-poohing of your scenarios. Far from it. I think it is worth discussing, given the import of next week and the vagaries of hurricane forecasting. I was just pointing out the necessary ingredients for the worst-case scenario to come true.
And it was Charley I was thinking of, too. Just looking it up on Wikipedia–I’d forgotten how damaging that storm had been. Nasty.
Understood, NukemHill. No apology needed at all. Sorry if my response seemed defensive. Some of the language was more directed at the comment before yours.
The magic guarding Tampa Bay is the shallowness of the Gulf . So unless the storm comes up east of the Cuban mountains and the waters of the Gulf don’t turn to steam, the storm is headed for Panama City or west.
Andy, shallow water does not “deflect” hurricanes. That’s a common myth, and a dangerous one, because it makes people feel invincible and not take precautions. Hurricanes are steered by atmospheric steering currents (air, not water). They aren’t “deflected” by shallow water, or land, or any other surface (as opposed to atmospheric) feature, unless the surface feature produces *wind* that may steer the storm.
There’s no “magic” protecting Tampa. None whatsoever. It’s a less likely landfall target than, say, Miami or Cape Hatteras, because of the direction the steering currents tend to blow. But hurricanes can hit Tampa, they have hit Tampa, and they will hit Tampa again.