NWS: Ike threatens "certain death" in coastal areas

Just a quick update:

• The Houston Chronicle‘s Eric Berger is about to start his daily 3pm EDT live chat. It will undoubtedly contain a wealth of good information.
   
• ABC 13’s Houston Weather Blog has a run-down on what various regions of the metro area can expect from Ike, assuming the current forecast holds.
   
• The latest computer models seem to have clustered on Galveston Bay. This may actually be a good thing, methinks, if this rightward trend nudges the landfall point ever-so-slightly further north. If Ike’s center comes ashore just slightly northeast of Galveston Island (thus sparing Galveston the storm’s “right-front quadrant,” or “dirty side”), the impact on the Houston/Galveston area — particularly in terms of storm surge — will, I think, be much less severe than if Ike were to come ashore well to the southwest of Galveston Island. Better 20 miles up the coast than 75 or even 100 miles down the coast, I think. (Somebody correct me if you think I’m wrong on this.) Though it would be a very close call. One contributor at Eastern U.S. WX Forums writes: “Houston may miss the right front quadrant at this rate. I have a feeling this is going to come down to last minute wobbles as to whether it goes just left, into, or just right of Galveston Bay.”
   
• Apropos of the above, the NHC’s 2pm advisory says, “IKE HAS MADE A SMALL JOG TO THE NORTHWEST OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS…BUT IS GENERALLY MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH.”
   
• The 2pm advisory also says that Ike’s pressure has risen to 952 millibars. This temporary weakening could portend subsequent strengthening, if an honest-to-goodness eyewall replacement cycle is now underway. Or not. I don’t know. But one WX Forums contributor did write this, after looking at the recon data a couple of hours ago: “I did not notice more than 1 double wind max, if that. That was a MUCH MUCH better structure. … I had counted 4 wind maximums earlier this morning.” Later, he added: “Yep, just went back and checked, NO double wind maximum on this pass.”
   
• A full mandatory evacuation has been ordered for all of Galveston Island, all of Chambers County, and evacuation zones A and B in Harris County, as well as “Brazoria County and areas south of Texas 35 and the Blessing area of Matagorda County.” (Here’s a Texas county map, for the uninitiated.)
   
• The National Weather Service in Houston put out this statement at 2:20 PM EDT, for coastal areas:
  

  LIFE THREATENING INUNDATION LIKELY! ALL NEIGHBORHOODS…AND POSSIBLY ENTIRE COASTAL COMMUNITIES…WILL BE INUNDATED DURING HIGH TIDE. PERSONS NOT HEEDING EVACUATION ORDERS IN SINGLE FAMILY ONE OR TWO STORY HOMES WILL FACE CERTAIN DEATH. MANY RESIDENCES OF AVERAGE CONSTRUCTION DIRECTLY ON THE COAST WILL BE DESTROYED. WIDESPREAD AND DEVASTATING PERSONAL PROPERTY DAMAGE IS LIKELY ELSEWHERE. VEHICLES LEFT BEHIND WILL LIKELY BE SWEPT AWAY. NUMEROUS ROADS WILL BE SWAMPED…SOME MAY BE WASHED AWAY BY THE WATER. ENTIRE FLOOD PRONE COASTAL COMMUNITIES WILL BE CUTOFF. WATER LEVELS MAY EXCEED 9 FEET FOR MORE THAN A MILE INLAND. COASTAL RESIDENTS IN MULTI-STORY FACILITIES RISK BEING CUTOFF. CONDITIONS WILL BE WORSENED BY BATTERING WAVES. SUCH WAVES WILL EXACERBATE PROPERTY DAMAGE…WITH MASSIVE DESTRUCTION OF HOMES…INCLUDING THOSE OF BLOCK CONSTRUCTION. DAMAGE FROM BEACH EROSION COULD TAKE YEARS TO REPAIR.