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Wargaming Senate Control

March 25th, 2014 - 5:11 am

SENATE MAP

You’re getting a threefer today, courtesy of Tom Dougherty, Erick Erickson, and David Freddoso, and also courtesy of my recent inability to sleep much past 4AM. Since Tom has the big headline number, let’s go to him first:

The latest ratings from the Practical Politicking Report have seen the odds of the GOP regaining the senate majority jump to 66.3%, an increase of more than 8% since the beginning of March.

The map [ABOVE] shows the 18 seats we consider to be in play, though realistically there are 13 states we are focused on with Hawaii, Massachusetts and Virginia most likely remaining blue; and Georgia and Kentucky (both just miss being rated Likely R) staying in Republican hands.

All 13 states of interest are currently held by Democrats; and we consider South Dakota and West Virginia virtual locks for the Republicans, with Montana also highly likely to go red even with the recent Walsh shenanigans.

Tom has four Democrat seats rated Likely R or Leans R and eight in the Toss Up category. The tossups include AK, AR, CO, LA, MI, MN, NC, OR. If a rising wave smashes all boats, I’d be tempted to put AK, AR, and LA in the Leans R column soon — giving the GOP a net pickup of eight. That’s right in line with various math models I’ve seen, which all seem to hover around a six-to-eight seat GOP pickup, with “eight or more” being more likely than “six or less.” Quite a change from just five weeks ago.

But wait, there’s more.

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All Comments   (4)
All Comments   (4)
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There is just no way that Oregon and Minnesota are going to send a Republican to the Senate. Not even if President Obama gets caught smoking a live boy while wearing a Goldwater pin and singing "ACA uber alles".
35 weeks ago
35 weeks ago Link To Comment
The Festival of Lies and Corruption leaves a treasure trove of targets for the truth to assault.

It is time to play Pin The Tales On The Donkeys.
35 weeks ago
35 weeks ago Link To Comment
" But energizing a base on hate does not last." GOP would be wise to remember that. Have alternatives to Obamacare, even (or especially) if it is "let the free market decide.
35 weeks ago
35 weeks ago Link To Comment
"Free market" is too ephemeral. It should simply be: "It's your healthcare. You decide. And start by deciding to drop your premiums and increase your network back to pre-Obamacare levels."
35 weeks ago
35 weeks ago Link To Comment
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