Back in July, Five Thirty Eight’s election guru Nate Silver believed that control of the Senate was a tossup. That has all changed now that voters got their first real look at the brutal consequences of ObamaCare.
Starting with the generic ballot that simply pits Republican lawmakers against their Democrat counterparts, the movement towards the GOP has been striking. In the Real Clear Politics average of these polls, going back as far as the beginning of the year, Democrats have consistently led by 3 to 4 points. During the government shutdown, Democrats leaped to 6 and 7 point leads. Since the disastrous rollout of ObamaCare, though, Republicans are not only in the lead by 2.5 points, they have led in every poll but one since November 10.
It’s heartening to me that the battlefield has widened enough to include Colorado’s own Mark Udall, who was considered one of the Democrats’ safe seats until recently. “Recently” in this case is defined as “since the ObamaCare rollout.”
But I’ll reiterate that for the GOP to win control, it all comes down to the candidates. This isn’t the House, where rinkydink districts can be won be rinkydink candidates. These are statewide races garnering national attention by a hostile(ish) media. So say it with me now just one more time: Fewer Todd Akins, more Rand Pauls.