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Repeat After Ben: There Is No Inflation

July 1st, 2013 - 5:12 am

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Official inflation is 4.5% combined over those two years. Ignoring the small-fry categories, and health insurance(which, as Sigivald said, is an Obamacare thing and not a monetary policy thing) we're left with:
Home -27
Groceries +6
Utilities +35
Tuition +70

I don't believe that tuition number for a second. I'd predict about +10-15, and I could believe +20, but +70 is just not possible. That's a flagrant measurement error, so I'm going to throw it out. If we assume that the other three categories are equal, they average out to...+4.7%. And they're not equal, housing is the biggest of the three, so that gives you some wiggle room for big jumps in small expenses.

I get why people worry about inflation, but at this point you're just making a fool of yourself. The data simply isn't agreeing with your preconceptions, and anyone with a mild understanding of monetary policy could tell you why(hint: look up "velocity of money").
42 weeks ago
42 weeks ago Link To Comment
"Children's activities" went up 118%!

When Bernanke talks about inflation, he is talking about monetary policy and inflation due to an increase in the money supply, because that's what he's concerned with and has power over and what can completely ruin an economy (see Weimar Germany, Zimbabwe).

I believe him that it's around 2%, which counts as "none" for practical terms; what little other there is (zomg children's activities! daycare! and less sarcastically, healthcare) is plausibly not being caused by monetary policy. Obamacare is raising health insurance costs, sure. But that's not "inflation" by any terms used by economists - it's just a government-caused price increase.

42 weeks ago
42 weeks ago Link To Comment
There is no inflation!!! It is easy to prove. How? Do not count the cost of lliving raises? Aboding here in Germany, my entire life's saving earned last year a, yes, fantastic REAL minus interest of ca. 1%. Oh, there was only a gov. ascertained inflation rate of 1.8% for 2012 (hell, a new top line Mercedes is not more expensive or a trip around the world for two cosst the same) with a nominally earned interest rate for savings at 0.5%, yes 1/2 of a percent gain (vs 1.8% inflation, not to mention US-comparable augments here in food, clothing, etc. costs) I have entered the path of decline. Let me repeat, I received 1/2 of 1% cent nominally and lost ca. 1% power of real purchasing power. In 2007 I would have received 4.25% nominal interest with low inflation and that might return except that the gov. holds the interest down. The ECB has explicitly announced that there is no limit, none whatsoever, of the "funny money" (as Buckley used to call it) that will be used to bail out Greece and any other wayward land of the south. That means my non-earning savings will continue on financing the ECB's give away. As a saver I can no longer effectively participate in the market through my bank's savings. (The bank earns a healthy percentage with my money and not I.) No relief is in site. BUT, I have received the highest possible plus here in Germany, namely "solidarity". And who said that the Goebel's propaganda tradiction was dead?
42 weeks ago
42 weeks ago Link To Comment
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