Predicting the Predictions
October 29th, 2012 - 11:29 am
Battleground Poll: Election Day final will be Romney 52, Obama 47.
On Friday I tweeted, “If the polls are around 50-47 in the challenger’s favor on election day, the actual election results will be around 52-48.” I wasn’t including third-party candidates in there, which will probably take more votes from Obama this time than Romney — Gary Johnson included.
Folks I know in Oregon are saying that Gary Johnson has a better than good chance of throwing the vote to Romney in that State. He’s got quite a following in Eugene.
Stephen, after almost four years of this crew of assclowns, I’m still skeptical that you’ll be right about the election. There is nothing-nothing- that I would put past Barry and Co. (including their kneepad wearing friends in the media) to hold onto the presidency. That said, I will gladly eat crow, humble pie and my hat the evening of November 6. I’ll go from “must read Vodkapundit” to “ALL! HAIL! MOST AWESOME VODKAPUNDIT!!!” if Romney wins by 4% or more.
It’s strange: I’m one of the more optimistic-tempered by realism- people you’ll meet, but I feel like I’m channeling my inner Allahpundit these days. And I want, want, want to be wrong.
As happy as a Mitt win would make me, I just can’t see how he gets there without OH. And I don’t see him taking the state from Obama unless his surge picks up speed. A full airing of what went on in Libya would help, but the Frankenstorm story has given the networks an excuse for burying that troubling storyline. And Obama hasn’t been shy about coming here and claiming credit for Ohio’s relatively good rebound. Obama’s electoral college cushion from four years ago is just too great. I’m predicting four more years of his incompetence and class warfare rhetoric.
The only way I can see Romney losing Ohio is if Ohio suddenly stops being so much like the rest of the country, as so many analysts have been saying. If Romney is winning the other 56 states strong enough to be 51-46 or whatever the polls are saying, then he has to win the one damn state that’s supposed to be America in microcosm.
I’ve long thought that the independent vote breaking for Romney meant that he had a decisive edge over Obama in the overall percentages of the vote. The polls are starting to reflect that (even if half the media persists in rigging their topline numbers). That 15% advantage for Romney with independents means that the D/R/I Split of 31/33/36 probably turns out something like this:
53% Romney, 45% Obama, 2% Other (Johnson, Stein, etc).
My one caveat is that I think Dem support is way down from 2008, in part because Obama has underperformed, and the ranks of Independents have been swelled by former Obama voters who are tired of Obama’s crap. GOP support is up because A) they have an actual candidate who wins on issues that matter to the GOP (economy, foreign policy), B) Social Conservatives don’t really matter at the end of the day, and C) They are united against Obama at all costs.
And there’s no way that my popular vote split will NOT be reflected in the general election and electoral college. That’s why Obama is now doing advert buys in Minnesota and Pennsylvania. He’s fighting to keep his Blue Coalition together, rather than fight in any area that is a Red State.