Tom Dougherty is a good guy to talk, drink, and dine with. He can also crunch numbers with the best of them, and he used my Romney column from yesterday as a jumping-off point to try and discern a thing or three about libertarian voters — and how they might impact the election.
This will get you started:
It’s impossible to tell how many libertarians are already committed to Barack Obama or Mitt Romney, but I estimate that there are 1.9% undecided or Gary Johnson supporting libertarians nationally and 2.1% of the same in the eight swing states I track (see Map 2012).
Looking at the national popular vote, using the raw unweighted and my weighted averages, it’s clear that a majority of the undecided libertarians or votes that moved from Gary Johnson to Mitt Romney could have some meaningful impact.
It’s nice to know you count. But go to Tom for the charts and the methodology. He’s not one of these crunchers who cheats by not telling you how he arrived at his conclusions.