Slip Slidin’ Away
I don’t spend much time looking at poll numbers in off-years, for the same reason I don’t eat canned beets: It’s unpleasant and unnecessary. But this PPP study was just too juicy to pass up:
A Democratic polling firm said President Obama’s already weak job-approval numbers are “worse than they appear” and he likely would lose the election if it were held today.
For the first time in a year, Mr. Obama does not lead former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney in Public Policy Polling’s monthly national poll on the 2012 presidential race. They are tied at 45 percent, and Mr. Obama is losing among independent voters by a margin of 49 percent to 44 percent.
Worse for Mr. Obama, PPP said, the “vast majority” of undecideds disapprove of the president’s performance. The survey of registered voters was conducted July 15-17.
“There’s a very good chance Barack Obama would lose if he had to stand for re-election today,” said Dean Debnam, president of PPP. “This is his worst poll standing in a long time, and he really needs the economy to start turning around.”
It’s starting to feel like 2005 or 2009 — when the incumbent party clueless as to the depths of public disgust with them. As late as the spring of ’06, GOP strategists were simply clueless, talking about how money and name recognition would save their majority. The Democrats were just as bad, convinced somehow that everything would be just fine last November. Seriously — it wasn’t until late summer/early fall that “reputable” polling firms got serious about talking about a GOP takeover.
By “reputable,” of course, I mean “anybody but Rasmussen.”
President Obama should have gotten a wakeup call, but this White House is constitutionally unable to change course. I don’t know if that’s due entirely to the man at the top, or if his advisors, cabinet, czars, and syncophants reinforce Obama’s essential intransigence. Whatever the case, their entire strategy — for dealing with immediate problems and next year’s campaign — seems to consist of the same two steps, repeated as needed:
1. Make dangerous, stupid policies.
2. Make sure the Republicans get slightly more blame for them than the President.
Oh, and I guess there’s a third step: Re-election! But, like the underwear gnomes or getting directions in Maine, I’m not sure how they get there from here.
The feeling I get — But a Lot Can Happen Between Now and the Election™ — is that if the GOP can pair a credible candidate with a not-too crazy Veep, there’s going to be a whole lot of red on next year’s map. Public sentiment has turned nasty against this President — and for good reason.
“… and he really needs the economy to start turning around.”
You know that scene at the end of Trading Places, where Randolph is lying on the floor having a coronary, and the guy is telling Mortimer “but your brother is ill”? Mortimer’s reaction to that statement is my reaction to this “he really needs” statement – I don’t give a hoot about I Won’s re-election chances. The country needs the economy to start turning around, but that won’t happen with any reliability or strength, I think, until O is out of office.
That’s a pretty big if, especially considering Bachmann’s homophobia and Cain’s disregard for the First Amendment.
Cain recognizes the problem of Islam. He does not understand that it would take a Constitutional Amendment to do something about it. Your criticism of him is fair enough.
But Bachmann? Homophobia? Just because lots of folks find homosexuality to be pretty disgusting does not mean they fear it; Nor does it mean that they hate homosexuals. “Hate the sin, but love the sinner.” “Homophobia” is just the Left’s way of attacking good people for speaking out against the Left and their disgusting agenda. Homophobia. Racist. Heartless. Just so many slurs.
No; in this case homophobia (and I’m quite immune to progressive propaganda) means someone who runs a clinic to “cure” gay people, who unconditionally opposes even civil unions, and calls a gay lifestyle “part of Satan.”
Social cons are just as bad as progressives when it comes to using the Federal government as some sort of bludgeon to coerce the rest of society into conforming to their rules. That’s why the Tea Party became so popular so quickly; things like gay marriage aren’t even on the radar for them. Now the social cons are trying to worm their way into Tea Party graces by posing as financial conservatives, before they whip out the bog-standard social con agenda, which has been regularly un-successful for decades.
A genuine political conservative recognizes that there are very few -if any- “social issues” which may be addressed by the Federal government. These sort of questions are more properly addressed at the state or local level, if they’re an appropriate subject of government control at all.
obama is chief incompetent number one, along with all the idiots that surround him.four more years of this circus?then we all will be on giligans island thankful that we got away from this social terroist group in washington.
I never underestimate the Republican’s ability to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.
The difference between Obama now and Bill Clinton in 1996 was that Clinton, faced with either losing the ’96 election or telling his supporters on the left to pound sand by signing Congressional Republicans’ welfare reform bill, chose the latter course at the urging of Dick Morris. But it did take Clinton until the early summer of ’96 to realize he would be in trouble with the moderates if he didn’t have some sort of tangible legislation signed to prove to swing voters he had learned the lessons of the ’94 midterms.
Obama? He’s still got time to change course, but the only lesson he and his staff seem to have taken from Clinton’s 1994 spanking was that White House’s ability to demonize Newt Gingrich (with the help of the big media) in 1995, via the battle over the federal shutdown. There’s no indication as of now Obama has the stomach to go face-to-face with his core hardline liberal supporters and tell them he’s breaking from their orthodoxy to save his own skin — he might have ticked them off at times before by not moving fast enough on their pet projects, but he’s yet to either tell the left their plans are dead, or that he’s going to sign a bill mostly crafted by those on the right.
As long as Obama’s more afraid of confronting his base than he is of losing re-election, the greater the chance is that he’s going to lose re-election. He’s still got about 10 months to win some of the swing voters back, but if he does take that course, the howls of betrayal of the left will be something to behold.