The Gulf War gave us President Clinton. People forget that, but it’s true. By the summer of 1992, President Bush had alienated his base (and become something of a joke to the middle) to the point where most any politically-competent Democrat could beat him.
But why was that Democrat a relatively unknown governor from a small southern state?
Because the year before, in the wake of the Gulf War, Bush’s popularity soared to 91% — and all the Brand Name Democrats said “no thanks” to running against him.
Today something similar might be going on. President Obama looked weak after the midterms, but he has very quickly reestablished his “relevance” in Washington. From here, the 2012 electoral math looks daunting — which might well be why the GOP field is notable for its emptiness. Newt Gingrich put a toe in the water last week, but I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again: Gingrich will never be President, not even if he ran against the decayed corpse of Andrew Johnson.
But next year there might also be a similar dynamic to 1992 at work. I doubt Obama will ever alienate his base — for the same reason that eight-year-old girls never fall out of love with unicorns: They’re magical! But without significant improvement (or at least the expectation of improvement) in the jobs picture and with continued flaccidity on the international scene, America could sour on the President, and quickly, too.
That said, the current Brand Name Republicans are almost all dismally unappealing, each uniquely so. So the idea of the party producing its own Clinton next year might be its best idea in ages.
UPDATE: Mark Sanford for President!
Is this a call for Mark Sanford to throw his hat into the ring?
http://www.hermancain.com/index.asp
I say Yes We CAIN !!!!
I remember an SNL sketch from 91 or so, with all of the potential Democratic candidates in a debate trying to convince primary voters to choose someone else. What sticks in my mind was Cuomo repeating “I have Mob ties!” over and over again.
“but he has very quickly reestablished his “relevance” in Washington. From here, the 2012 electoral math looks daunting — ” What world are you living in? Foreign policy-present, budget – present, trade deals-against them. Doesn’t sound like a winning agenda to me.
Not to mention doubling down on healthcare reform and, more recently, gun control.
Someone from the western states invite him for a speech, quick. I’m crossing my fingers that he says something YouTube-able on immigration reform/amnesty and public union support.
Is there anyone left in America that The Won has not alienated?
I can see, coming down the road, more Republican loserdom: Romney! He too has well pressed pants; he is great looking (in a white way, but that contrasts well with Obama, no?) He has twinkly eyes. He looks GOOD!
And he is so last decade.
I agree that Obama cannot alienate his fans; if any kind of reality were in play in this respect they wouldn’t have elected him in the first place since they did so for the same reason a bird might peck at something shiny.
Nor will any Republican over the age of 50 be elected since they are one and all non-shiny objects with default titles of Faux News lovin’, imperialist, colonialist, racists with their hands in the pockets of big business.
Nuance wouldn’t enter a Presidential election in the United States if every citizen had a personal tutor riding on his back like a monkey.
Gingrich is a rotten, disagreeable man, Huckabee is smarmy. The third guy? I forget his name, which should tell you how viable a candidate I think him to be. Let them demonstrate just how empty their suits are and let the viable candidates wait until the media has its way with the fools.
I’ve seen this analysis–that Obama is so tough to beat that all the good Republicans are staying home–and I don’t get it. If Obama is too tough to beat, then any sitting president is too tough to beat. Which is true enough, but that’s it. The power of incumbancy is all Obama has goign for him.
It’s a lot, but the real Republican problem is this: every groomed, turn-waiting, “ready for prime time” Republican is a snoozer unpalatable to the Tea Party, and there is no winning without them. Whereas every good Tea Partier is too new.
This is part of the fallout of the Tea Party effort to reform the Republican Party first. Well worth it in the long run, IMO, especially if the Republicans retake the Senate in 2012, but still, an Obama second term may be the price to be paid for cleaning house on the right side of the isle.