Handicapping the House — The Final Edition
This is it — the final countdown!
Sorry about that. But I’m still in shock that the Toss Up races have zoomed back up to 40. This close to D-Day is when the center should be emptying out to both sides, as voter preferences become clearer.
But this just isn’t that kind of year.
First, let’s look at the races that shifted to the left since we last checked in.The GOP is showing some weakness in the Midwest (IA01 & IA03) and in Pennsylvania (PA07 & PA11), where they are expected to make some big gains. Nobody is quite sure what’s going on in IA01, due to a lack of polling. And in IA03, Republican Brad Zaun has stumbled pretty badly in recent weeks. Both races went from Toss Up to Leans Dem. Data is thin in PA07, but I think the GOP’s Patrick Meehan will take this one — Pennsylvania’s districts aren’t as competitive as they could be for the Dems, thanks to the last round of redistricting. And PA11 slipped due to one pretty outlandish poll result. Both races went from Leans GOP to Toss Up, but I have them colored red on my private map.
Three other races exited the Tossers to Leans Dem. They are KY03, NH02 and NM01. All three are looking solidly blue to me, absent a wave even bigger than the one I’m expecting.
WA03 slipped from Leans GOP, but I honestly don’t know why. Jaime Herrera has held nice margins since August, but I’m not coloring it in yet.
And our last left-mover is FL25, from Likely to Leans GOP. No incumbent in this race, but I still like David Rivera’s chances. Enreddenate it already.
That’s nine left-movers — the most we’ve seen in a single week. Bad news for the GOP? Perhaps. But if so, then the Democrats have even worse news — only one of those seats (FL25) is currently held by a Republican and that one is likely to stay red. So the Donks are, at best, treading water.
And for the really bad news for the Democrats: A total of 16 races red-shifted — and every single one of them is currently a blue seat.
Five of those went Leans GOP from the Toss Up. They are:
•CA20, where farmer Andy Vidak is showing great strength against Jim Costa. Despite the weakness at the top of the GOP ticket in California, I’m calling this one for Vidak.
•GA08 has Austin Scott doing well against Blue Dog Dem Jim Marshall, who voted against all key elements of the Obama agenda. I’m withholding judgement on this one.
•NJ03 has an incumbent (John Adler) who can’t break 50% against a GOP challenger (Jon Runyan) who has shown up best in the most reliable poll. Also I’m thinking there might be a Christie Effect in New Jersey, giving a helping bump to the GOP’s chances. Mark it red.
•NY23 could very easily go red, but I have it on good authority that having Carl Paladino at the top of the ticket is doing very rude and unlubricated things to candidates down-ticket. So I’m not ready to give this one to challenger Matt Doheny just yet.
•SC05. I don’t even have to look at the latest data from this one — Mick Mulvaney will almost certainly take this R+7 district for the GOP.
The Democrats also lost nine Leaners to the Toss Ups. That’s too much to cover race-by-race in the scope of this column — but I promise to have them all colored in for you by Monday. And they are: ID01, IN02, KY06, ME01, MS04, NC02 (Go, Renee!), NY20, NY24 and RI01.
The last two movers were MO05, where Jacob Turk is gaining some traction against Emanuel Cleaver in a D+10 district, and WA06, where Doug Cloud is doing the same in a D+5 district. RCP has them rated as Likely Dem, and so do I.
So forget the horse races, and take a look to the numbers that will blow your mind.
Set aside not just the Safe seats, but the Likelies, too, so we can concentrate on the Leaners and the Toss Up races — where control of the House will be decided.
Do that, and you see that the Democrats start with a base of 148 seats, and the GOP starts with 176 — leaving us with 113 seats to play with. Most years, somewhere between 25-40 races are contested. In a wave election, those numbers can double, to 60-80 seats. This year, it’s 113 — almost doubled yet again, albeit from the low end. That’s huge. And the magic number is only 218.
Of the 46 seats currently leaning the GOP’s way, 40 of them belong to Democrats today. Of the 25 seats leaning towards the Democrats, 23 of them already belong to Democrats. Obviously, the Donks are on defense. Let’s go ahead and award each side all their Leaners. Sure, there’ll be some surprises on Election Day — some of them nasty. But I suspect that will cut both ways.
Leaners included, the Democrats have a pretty solid hold 173 seats. And the GOP? Right now, RCP averaging gives them 218+4… er… 222, and the speaker’s gavel.
But what about the middle, the Toss Ups? Let’s play a game called Pretend There Is No Wave. And why not? The Democrats have been playing it for months now. If we Pretend There Is No Wave, we’ll take those 40 Toss Up races and just split them down the middle. That’s right, give each side an equal share.
And that gives you a Republican majority of 242-193 — a mere 13 seats shy of the supermajority the Democrats have enjoyed these last two years. That’s a pickup of 64 seats, and as decisive a repudiation of a ruling party as any of us are likely to see in our lifetimes.
But that repudiation isn’t something you can watch on TV or read about on the web. It’s something you have to make happen, your very own self. That means voting on Tuesday. That means bringing friends with you, so they can vote, too. Look, we all know someone who is out of work. They might not have gas money — but they sure have plenty of free time. So give ‘em a lift and let ‘em vote.
And bring your iPhone, Flip cam, whatever you have that takes pictures or video. See something iffy? Make a record of it. And then start making phone calls.
You’ve seen the numbers: We can do this. But it still must get done.
You’ve seen what the other side is capable of — intimidation and fraud. But they haven’t seen what we can do — not yet they haven’t.
Show them on Tuesday.
Typo alert: You have Runyan-Adler backwards. Runyan is the Republican and the challenger.
Not an Eagles fan, eh?
Thanks! Got it fixed.
If all the persons who spoke to me in the last two months go and vote against the Democommies as they said they will, it will be an earthquake.
Never seen anything like this.
There is no need whatsoever to apologize for that link.
This is truly the definitive version of “The Final Countdown,” about which, there can be no argument!
I’ll see you, and raise you this one..
Steve, you did a heckuva job…dude!
(pun intended,…except it’s not really a pun is it? Especially because I meant it!)
IA-01,03 may have moved back to leans Dem, but IMO IA-02 is a good shot at an upset.
Dr. Miller-Meeks is a strong candidate with a good ground game and she will hold her own in blue counties.
Story will be Dem turnout.
Gotta get past the margin of fraud, Stephen. Post election we need to follow up and be merciless on ballot stuffers and their ilk.
How many election results were reversed on proven voter frauds? None. Court’s judgement: there were no ways to distinguish which votes were fraud votes.
How many election results were reversed by voter frauds? At least two, WA governor race a couple of cycles ago, and Al Franken’s senate seat, by including dead votes and ghost votes in repeated recounts.
I admit I don’t know which authority does what in prosecuting vote fraud and election campaign fraud — but whoever it is, they’ve been AWOL, starting at least from 2008 (“Good Will Hunting,” “Loving You,” “Minnie Mouse,” anyone?). But prevention is key, and it’s not being done. I suspect inert Republicans as much as corrupt Democrats. I bet we see raving fraud in 2012 while Republicans in Congress hem and harrumph and do nothing.
Sheila Jackson Lee thinks we all need to be on the look out for tea party types committing voter fraud. ACORN gets a pass from her though. Must be that long history of cheating by the tea parties and the squeaky clean record of ACORN. Be vigilant.
Just wondering, what’s the Senate race look like? Or did I just miss it on the front page?
Unfortunatly the only place where you find Senators in the House is in the minds of Liberals.
You see somehow McCarthy is responsible for the activities of the Hous UnAmerican Activities Commission (HUAC) in the minds of liberals.
McCarthy only accused members of the State Department of being Communists. (people who were later proven to actually be communists when the wall came down) But he is blamed for things like the Blacklists (result of HUAC) anyway.
There is one good thing about voter fraud, if you are convicted of it, you can never legally vote again along with felons in most all states. Look for those that do such and document it by any means to stop them from further activity and some jail time if the offense so requires it!
The most exciting election of my life. Too bad I’m an election judge and won’t be able to watch it happen. Oh, well. I’ll just have to console myself with all the Democrat whine parties the remainder of the week.
Stephen, why the deference to the MSM when Republicans are
coloured red? Up here in Canada, the Liberals (who are to the left of the Conservatives) are the one’s coloured red.
Change has to begin somewhere. So, why not here?
I’ve often wondered that myself since proggie politics are red any way you look at them.
It has to do with the colors used by the networks to depict the election maps in 2000.
Until 2000, blue was the color used for the incumbent party and red for the challenger. Since the Dems held the presidency in 2000, blue was used to show the states that went for Al Gore.
Vote fraud will never be punished by the legal system in the United States. When the Democrats are in power, they will not do anything to curtail one of the main sources of their electoral victories. When the Republicans are in power, they are gorm-less, goolie-less wimps who would not dream of trying to at least make it clear that it was rape and not consent. There are only two ways to stop it. One, the Republicans have to cheat better than the Democrats, or two, it has to become both dangerous and unprofitable for the Democrats. We know the first will never happen.
Subotai Bahadur
Let’s take your thinking one step further, Let’s give the GOP all the tossups. That gives them 20 more seats. 20+64=84 80+ has been my prediction.
Fine as that is, what I want to know is the number of incumbents rejected or retired. That’s the number that matters to me; how many bums got thrown out.
And which party were the rejected incumbents.
You just know if it’s 10 to 1 dem to rep the MSM will still play it as a General Anti Incumbent sentiment.
Renee is up 46 to 41 for Bob the Mauler Etheridge truly bad for a seven term incumbent. Bob carried NC2 with 67% in 08 and 06 RCP has no poll for NC4 for this year, Price carried it by 63% in 08 but with no polling for this race RCP calls it likely Dem but has NC7 and 11 both toss ups. Ilario Pantano(R)is up 1 over Mike McIntyre (D) in a poll from Sept. McIntyre won with 69% in 08. Heath Shuler is up 45 to 44 over Jeff Miller in NC11 in a poll from July yet RCP rates that race a toss up. Shuler won with 62% in 08. If this is going to be a “wave year” I say NC flips districts 2,4,7,8,11 and 13, NC4 having many liberal precincts as does NC2 where Renee Ellmers is running for my vote. We have to average 2.6 flipped seats in the House to match the gains made in 1894.
I live in NC13. Brad Miller (D) incumbent vs. Bill Randall (R). This is a district that Miller help draw in 2001. I don’t think Miller has ever gone below 59% in any election, and considering Randall has pretty much run a stealth campaign, I don’t see him winning this election.
With the way Lawson “stepped on his d***” with his fake Morgan Freeman campaign ad, I don’t see him defeating Price either.
It is amusing to see everyone is still ignoring Michiganistan’s 12th district. The polls are now showing that the Pelosi-lapdog chair of the House Ways & Means committee is about to take a fall from his 28 years of no-need-to-even-ask-for-your-vote seat. Good news for a district that has the distinction of being at the top of the list for losses of jobs, income and home values.
Couldn’t happen to a nicer guy: http://tinyurl.com/2eztulj
http://firelevin.com
I follow the political stuff such as this as a form of amusement, but quite frankly I don’t really expect any change, whoever wins. As far as I can see, this is just a way of bringing in cash for what Sean Scallon has dubbed “Conservative Inc.” over at the indispensable American Conservative. As to the futility of voting, I think that long time writer and USMC vet Fred Reed has the best take on it: http://fredoneverything.net/Squid.shtml
Don’t let the title fool you. It is a well written piece about the real political impotence of the citizenry, and the lack of genuine choices. I admit that I voted, but only for one of the minor parties that concerns itself with social conservative issues.
I still believe that the tea baggers(and I use the term deliberately) are going to be in for a profound shock once the Repubs take over. They will find that very few, if any of the people that they have worked to elect have any intention of doing what they said they were going to do. And at that point, they will return to their regular lives, watch tv, and return to their zombie like state, even as Faux News cheers the meaningless triumph of Oceania, er I mean Republicanism. And the money machine known as Conservative Inc, which is not in any way, shape or form related to genuine conservatism, will keep fleecing the suckers.
Now I have to get some work done. I have to earn enough to pay my taxes so politicians can pander to the lowest common denominator.
If the Tea Party and the awakening independents save your country after all, I’m sure you’ll find something else to be depressed and nasty about, a beaten man, a freeloader.
They beat you. During the next dozen years, starting Tuesday, we’re going to beat them. Why not join us instead of being a dead weight with balls in your mouth?
Meehan is going to win in Pa7.
Not that it necessarily means much but he has shockingly got the endorsements of both the left-leaning Philadelphia Inquirer and Delaware County Daily Times due to electioneering stunts pulled by Lentz.
And not that this is definitive either but the Meehan signs far outnumber those for Lentz. In ’08 the Sestak signs far outnumbered those for Craig Williams.
Taken together along with various hard-to-measure subjective observations, I will be totally flummoxed if Meehan fails to win.
I think we waited a little too long.
I’m hoping for a 113 GOP pickup, because that would give them a veto-proof supermajority. Likely? Not very. But we can dream can’t we?
Mr. Green “I have it on good authority that having Carl Paladino at the top of the ticket is doing very rude and unlubricated things to candidates down-ticket [in NY].”
You should not make too much of McCarthy’s (NY4) attack ad on Becker on Paladino to generalize. NY4 is a highly educated, overtaxed district, and Becker is well known.
That makes no sense to this not-partisan NY-watcher who is following the congressional contests because they will drive turnout. Schumer is still pretending he is not on the ballot. Gillibrand is still in her first statewide contest. The real drivers are the statewide contests for Comptroller and AG, and the congressional contests. Most importantly, Cuomo has no coattails outside of the straight ticket die-hards who would vote for anyone with a D. I will be surprised if he gets 50% of the vote because there will be so many people voting third-party this year. My gut prediction is Cuomo will lose more votes to Barron, Hawkins, and Redlich, than Paladino will to Redlich. Some of us might just vote Paladino because his Lt. Gov Edwards is so strong, and, in NY, one can expect the next governor to either be indicted or resign in disgrace… or resign due to nervous breakdown over the next budget
Do you really think Anthony Weiner (NY9) would ask Bill Clinton in for a last-minute fundraiser if things were not contentious?
Do you think the Dems making the protection of abortion rights such a major issue is anything more than the need to get more women to the polls to vote D? (forgetting that 49% of New Yorkers are Catholics)
I also think the turnout in the not-competitive NYC CDs will be unusually low due to 1) the BoElections fiasco from the primary, and, 2) fear of bedbugs. Do not scoff. The bedbug crisis is affecting everything. I do not understand why NYC has not made it an official health emergency as if it was an epidemic. People are afraid to take the subway, buy clothing, go the movies, or move to a new place. Yonkers already had to change one polling site due to bedbugs.
The good news is that a few entrenched NY incumbents are so miffed that they actually have to campaign this year. Good practice.
That settles it. After Nov. 2, the official symbol of the Democratic Party will be the bedbug!