Stopped Clock
Kevin Drum pretty much punted yesterday in his “Why Did North Korea Do It?” piece — “running interference for Iran” never once came up, not even in the follow-up. But today he’s onto something, looking at how the Right pretty much owns social networking. We’ll get to the meat, but first read the lede:
Back in the early aughts, liberals took an early lead in the blogosphere and never looked back. Conservatives were apparently too stodgy, too top-down oriented to make effective use of online technology.
Then a couple snipped bits, followed by this:
I’m going to take a guess here: online technology is fundamentally more attractive for insurgents than it is for the party in power. Partly this is because the party in power already has lots of other tools available for fundraising and communications. Partly it’s because the party in power is more invested in leadership keeping control of its message. Partly it’s because the party in power is just flat out busier with the actual work of governing. And partly it’s because online chatter is riskier: if you’re tweeting all day long you’re bound to screw up sometime and say something stupid. That’s more dangerous for the party in power than it is for the party out of power.
Fair enough — but not far enough. Drum concludes that he doesn’t “expect this state of affairs to last much longer,” but he might want to rethink that. Once one side becomes entrenched, it becomes very difficult for the other side to win back control — or even parity — within a given medium.
The Left owns movies, TV, and the blogosphere (not to mention academia). The Right owns talk radio and social networking. And there’s no sign yet of any insurgencies, not even against the insurgents.
Ahhh. So it’s not just me. I thought I was being particularly paranoid about this whole sequence of events. To me, this has Iran’s fingerprints all over it. It smells so much like a head fake, while Iran plans a surprise attack on Israel, that I thought maybe I needed to take a break because of my over-active imagination.
At least when the Middle-East goes up in flames and Obama gets caught sucking his thumb, I can rest comfortably knowing others share in my overwhelming paranoia.
Think smaller. Iran didn’t need cover for any kind of attack on Israel — that’s what Syria and Hezbollah are for. But suddenly everyone’s talking about something other than nuclear enrichment…
But that’s the most anyone has been doing anyway–talking. I’ve already written that off as the horse gone from the barn. Horses Gone Wild, as it were. But if Obama’s forced to move multiple task forces within striking distance of North Korea, in order to act preventatively, or for counter-strikes against Nork firepower after a shooting war starts, then the Persian Gulf and Eastern Mediterranean suddenly get much bigger for the remaining naval forces left behind.
And if Iran “simply” resorts to a proxy war against Israel, in a scenario looking similar to what Bill Whittle’s interviewee spelled out a couple of weeks ago, then Israel will most certainly lash out against Iran. And we will have very little to throw into the fray, even if we wanted to.
I really see this as a two-front war being orchestrated by … Russia? Could they be coordinating this whole mess? Have I really gone around the bend and into Tom Clancy fantasy land now? It really has the feel of being part of a larger strategic play to me. It may simply be Iran attempting to become a supra-regional power. But no matter who is pulling the strings, it doesn’t feel like a feint to me. Sinking an enemy warship is way too big a move to simply be a distraction. I know Li’l Kim’s a nutcase, but this is beyond batshit territory.
Occam’s Razor says NK is about to collapse, so he’s looking to either solidify the military power-base, or go out in a blaze of glory. But I think we’d know something about the internal situation. There has been some speculation to that, but certainly nothing solid. That’s why I think there is a bigger game being played right now. And I don’t think Kim would be willing to see his country be destroyed just to act as a distraction while Iran finishes up its nuke program. That’s too small a return for him. I think Iran has to be promising bigger action.
I dunno. Gotta say–Bill’s video still has me spooked. Maybe that’s coloring my perspective too much. I think Professor Reynold’s recent vacation was a good idea….
I dispute the idea that the left owns the blogosphere, but they do make more effective rabble rousing with it. In any case, the reason the right was slower to embrace the new media is… well we have lives, we have jobs, we’re busy.
Regarding the Norks, Kim Jong Il is a lunatic and I think he believes having a nuke makes him all powerful. Run out of gas in 2 days? We have nukes. Malnourished populace? We have nukes. Ill trained troops? We have nukes. Logic doesn’t work into this.