Age, Guile, Etc.
October 29th, 2008 - 12:14 pm
It ain’t over till it’s over:
Analysts have predicted that new voters, young voters and Hispanic voters will turn out in record numbers in this election. But as Nevadans continue to flock to the polls, turnout among those three groups is lagging, at least in the early going.
While turnout statewide was nearly 25 percent through Sunday, it was just 20 percent among Hispanic voters, 14 percent among voters under 30 and 15 percent among those who didn’t vote in the last three elections, according to an analysis of state early voting records through Sunday prepared by America Votes, an organization that works to mobilize voters.
It might be time to stop using Gallup’s new math for “enthused” and “youth” voters and go back to the original formula.
This kind of article drives me crazy. Lots of numbers put into graphs so they look like they mean something, but they don’t because key data points are missing.
First of all, “turnout statewide was nearly 25%” of what? Registered voters? Projections for number of voters this election cycle?
Then, if it’s 25% of some known (or semi-known) quantity like registered voters, then how do the numbers for the various demographic groups stack up to other elections, or expectations? For example, 14% of people under 30 vote this time, but if in 2004 only 8% of people in that group voted, then it is a HUGE increase, even if the group is still underrepresented. On the other hand, if it’s usually 12%, then that’s a pretty modest increase.
The most useful information is the quote from the “expert” who says he would have expected the numbers to be “a little higher.”