The Canadian election, that is. My gut tells me to expect an inconclusive result, like Germany had last year.
You try convincing people up here that the CPC doesn’t have a “hidden agenda” – which seems to consist of sending Canada back into the comparative Dark Ages to hear some talk – a belief that apparently holds up in the face of ample evidence of the Liberals’ overt cronyism, corruption and general malfeasance over the past 12 years. At this point, an inconclusive Tory win is likely better than the alternative…
TO: Stephen Green
“My gut tells me to expect an inconclusive result, like Germany had last year.” — Stephen Green
…lies one of US’s greater strengths.
With two contentious parties, we are less likely to have an inconclusive result in an election. And if we do have the legislative and executive branches divided, they’ll HAVE to compromise in order to get anything done.
This, as opposed to the wishy-washy affair known as parlimentarian government we see elsewhere.
Sure, it’s contentious, and those who snooze lose, but we tend to make better progress than those others.
P.S. Liberty is NOT for the faint of heart.
As long as the conservatives win I could care less..
From an American point of view, the results of the Canadian election can only be good or excellent. Excellent if pro-American Conservatives win an outright majority (a very good chance), marking the fourth consecutive win of a strong Bush ally on the World stage (after Blair, Howard and Merkel). And good if the Conservatives win only a minority (a result that will still be seen as a victory in Canada, where Conservatives were out of power since 1993, when they elected only 2 out of 303 members), because then they will form an alliance with Quebec’s separatists (certain to win a lot of seats and only too happy to dismantle federal social programs for nationalist rather than ideological reasons). And since Quebec separatists will never do anything to antagonize Washington (they want US to recognize an independent Quebec in the future), they will go along with Conservatives pro-American shift in foreign policy as well. In fact, the Quebec separatist party, Bloc Quebecois, was formed by former Conservatives.
Either way, the anti-American Liberals will be buried. And the equally anti-American NDP are even less popular.
Don’t be too sure, check out Capt Ed’s comments section. Seems the Atlantic papers completely ignored the election until the tories were 10 points ahead and then the fullcourt liberal press went into action.
This one’s going to be close.
Voters can talk a good game, but when those pampered sissies are in the voting booth, I think they’ll go with the moonbats they know and vote liberal.
I get the impression from Canadians that the CPC is unlikely to join the Bloc Quebecquois, for several reasons, not least of which is the CPC has no desire to watch over the dissolution of Canada.
As important, the Quebecquois are the recipients of much of the federal largesse; therefore, dismantling programs would only cut their own throats with the electorate (which, like ours, cares more about bacon than about ideology, in the main).
What is strange (for Canadian politics) is the extent to which the Liberals have been tearing at the NDP, which normally would be their bedfellows. Whether they can see past their nastiness in the election to form a coalition government (to keep the satanic conservatives out) remains to be seen.
Via Steve Janke:
CTV is calling for a minority Conservative government!
Steve Janke at 10:01
CTV is calling for a Conservative minority government.
Details as I hear them:
Potential range of Conservative seats: 120 to 150
10:47pm, 305 of 308 ridings reporting
Bloc Quebecois 50
The “nightmare scenario” now may come to pass. The Governor General has the option to choose the next PM, and if NDP and the Grits decide to work together, their total as stated above surpasses that of the Tories, and Martin could still appeal to the GovGen to retain his post as PM. That arrangement would last until the very next major vote, at which time BQ and the Tories will kick that cabinet out of office on another no-confidence motion. Call it Italy writ large.
However, the GovGen may wait for the Tories to organize with BQ – as they did on several prior confidence motions in the previous Parliament. If that occurs, then there will be a stable center-right (by Hoser standards) plurality government for probably three years or so, but will decidedly not result in the breakup of the Dominion as someone suggested above. BQ are much closer in outlook to the Tories than they are to the Grits and this has been getting more so for some time.
Big winner(besides Harper of the Tories): Gilles Duceppe of BQ – he is now the “PM”-maker.
Big loser (besides Martin of the Grits): Jack Layton of NDP – he had the levers of power in the prior Parliament, was getting Madd Jack for his constituencies and priorities, but he could not keep himself from forcing the no confidence vote with BQ and the Tories which forced this election. Now, unless the GovGen invokes the “nightmare scenario”, Layton is just another backbench shouter.
And the wisdom of our FF is once again proven.
Our very instability makes us the longest stable democracy on the planet.
Tories picked up 10 seats in Quebec, those #)$*#()$* rural voters. Probably flyover, too.
Yes we have a minority Conservative government up here.
We Tories were hoping for a landslide, but personally I think this is a major accomplishment. Ontario and Quebec have long been liberal/BQ fortresses that have shut out all Tory contenders.
By dint of some very clever campaigning and a savvy approach on the part of Harper (who now speaks accented, but proficient French) – they managed to pick up seats in both provinces exceeding any previous showings.
Considering Martin and his liberal apparatchiks tried their damndest to scare the hell out of the Canadian public – with anti-American ranting, insinuations that Harper was a closet fascist who was going to install the army in the cities etc – and other forms of hysterical over-reaching, the Tories have actually done well.
I think Canadians voted for change – yes. I also think there has been so much demonization of Harper and his Reform Party roots, it’s unreasonable to expect a sweep at this stage.
If the Tories perform well, as I fully expect they will, it will build confidence.
Alberta MP, Diane Ablonczy, came up with the rather neat analogy of test driving a new car. This is pretty much what the public is doing. Once they see that Harper isn’t close to being as far right as the Liberal hype has been suggesting, it will alter the nature of the game come the next election.
Given that this is a slim mandate, an election could happen sooner rather than later.