Time Will Tell
Ed Lambert, himself an aerospace guy, sent this story:
After more than a decade of mergers, downsizing and layoffs, the nation’s aerospace industry is bracing for another jolt as more than a fourth of its work force moves toward retirement within the next five years, creating what experts call a “demographic cliff.”
Industry leaders say the potential mass exodus could create a work force crisis since the pool of younger replacements has been steadily shrinking for more than a decade.
Aerospace workers ages 30 or younger constitute less than 7 percent of the industry’s labor pool, compared with 18 percent in 1987, according to industry data.
Ed added that he first read about a similar problem back in the late ’70s, so maybe it’s not time to worry just yet. But how are we supposed to keep designing first-rate weapons (not to mention compete with heavily-subsidized Airbus for civilian liners), when our workforce is shrinking and Washington is limiting work visas?
Interesting. One wonders how much of that is a function of ratcheting entry requirements? If you now have to have a masters or doctorate to get in the door, then you are going to be in your late 20s at the earliest. And, of course, it’s illegal to make the geezers retire just because they’re geezers.
SPACE COWBOYS II
Obviously, Stephen Green, citing Ed Lambert, warns of the graying of the aerospace industry: Aerospace workers ages 30 or younger constitute less than 7 percent…
we don’t want anyone on visa working at lockheed…
I remember when I started college in ’90 I wanted to go into Areospace Engineering but decided to go with Electrical Engineering because there were far more job opportunities. Moot point really, since 4 changes of major later I got my degree in Computer Scienece.
It’s less of a worry than perhaps it ought to be.
I’m a military engineer of long standing. Some of the young folks coming into the ranks are very good. However, mil-eng doesn’t typically pay as well as commercial engineering opportunities do. Since mil-eng depends heavily on “domain experts,” who devote themselves to mastering a rather narrowly defined field of knowledge and then acting as gurus in that area, there’s ample reason for worry: the new young engineers are very likely to develop itchy feet before they can segue into such roles.
Like it or not, mil-eng is for the sort of fellow who isn’t unhappy about staying with one employer for forty years. The military contractors are going to have to become aggressive about pay schedules and promotional opportunities if they want to hang onto the new breed of engineering graduates.
Oh, Mr Porretto, if that were only true……..
I’ll wager that mil contractors will reach into their bag of tricks and hire up a bunch of job shoppers. Pay them double (or more) compared to us regular guys. Keep em on as long as the staffing curves need em, then they bail. We spend the next few years cleaning up the broken glass.
Ed
“After more than a decade of mergers, downsizing and layoffs, the nation’s aerospace industry is bracing for another jolt . . .”
The mergers, downsizings and layoffs weren’t something that “happened to” the aerospace industry completely against its will. They were to in varying degrees conscious choices.
Could it be that the lack of job security in the field is one reason younger people are looking elsewhere?
Also, the 20-, 30- and 40-somethings would have been the ones to get RIF’ed along with way. The senior workers are the ones whose jobs have been most secure. It would be interesting to know the percentage of under-30s immediately before the most recent RIFs. I imagine they’ve laid of a bunch of young people in the last two years. Shouldn’t be too surprising that those left are in their 50s.
I don’t know, its not like the younger people comming into the industry have to start from scratch. What exists today should serve as a legacy of knowledge to build on right?
Yes, indeed Gretchen, a lot of the youngin’s were the target of RIF’s (Reduction in Force, also known as Right Sizing, Down Sizing, Improving Shareholder value, etc).
I think the scary thing is that those under-30 types left when asked to, but many did not move on to another Mil-Con. A suprising number went back to school (for another field), started their own business (one chap is now a very successful printer). They won’t be around to “call back” when the need arises.
Ed
“Heavily subsidized Airbus”??
You’re just mad jealous that Airbus planes are better looking, and more efficient than Boeing’s.
Mo, the one time I’ve flown on an AIrbus was the roughest clear weather flight I’ve ever been on while going to & from cruising altitude. Damn thing shook like an epiletic on a triple expresso.
Aviation Week has been pushing for more students going into aerospace and a lot of readers are responding that one has to be crazy to go into the field.
As a currently underemployed designer, I find myself agreeing with the readers who think that aerospace has become a dead end.
I’ve been both a direct(GE Radar/Sonar) and contract employee(NRL, Kodak, etc) who took two years out to get a degree in the expectation of getting back into the design field. No such luck, and I’m stuck delivering pizzas at sub-minmum wage(I’m allowed to accept tips, but the cheap SOBs in my town rarely do). Everyone says that they want to hire, but don’t have the money. Boeing seems to be relying on this USAF lease to boost their fortunes, rather than designing new and exciting aircraft. See the 11/03 Popular Science for a discussion on this.
Ed, I understand your attitude regarding job shoppers, but you don’t see it the way I do.
Shoppers are brought in because: management underestimated the amount of work; death or permanent incapacitation of employee; tightened deadline that it is unreasonable to expect the directs to meet; specialized expertise that the client needs only for a short(90-180 days).
Shoppers get the higher amounts but there are penalties: separation from loved ones; subject to instant layoffs(I worked for someone known as “5 minute Reif” and found out why he’s got that that nickname);
have to get up to speed extremely fast; no bennies; contempt of many directs(I’ve actually been spit on in one location).
It works both ways; I’ve been brought in to work on projects that the directs botched, and as a direct I had to “refine” a shopper design.
BTW, most shoppers don’t “bail”. Shoppers are brought in either until the project is completed or a specific time frame. Sometimes we’ll leave early if the handwriting is on the wall or under extenuating circumstances(I ran afoul of a miserable landlord in NJ and had to leave or get sued), but most of the time we prefer to stay as long as possible.
I still hope to get back into design, but consider that the store manager has a BS aerospace engineering degree, a McDonalds manager in another city has his PE license yet can’t find work, and a guy with his MS in Mech. Engr is a janitor at a Walmart in the upstate NY area where I live.
Now if we could contrive a nuclear exchange between India and China, maybe things would improve
I could see this coming while I was still in college. When I started school in ’87, aerospace engineering was listed as the most-employable degree out there. By the time I finished in ’92 (hey, I had a redshirt year), Boeing alone was laying off tens of thousands of people, and the entire industry, from space to commercial to military, was in free-fall (pun certainly intended).
Out of my graduating class of roughly 30 (Auburn, winter quarter ’92), exactly three people had jobs six months after graduation (I gave up and went to grad school). A lot of people just got out of the field before they ever really got started, and those of us who stayed in had some very lean years (you try and get a job with no experience when you’re up against guys with 20 years or more who’ll take anything to pay the bills–and I didn’t blame them a bit).
Seeing that prospect, it was hardly a surprise when the underclassmen changed their majors in droves. The AE schools still haven’t recovered from those years.
Incidentally, Steve, unless the security clearance rules change rather dramatically, nobody on a work visa is going to be “designing first-rate weapons” in the US…
I work in this industry and, IMHO, this is much ado about nothing. And that’s all I have to say about that.
Hot Damn
I gotta take up drinking vodka. Mr. Green put a lot of work into this to make it as good as it is, the least you can do is go read it. Then come back here and affirm that you've done so. It will affect your grade.