Beginning of the End?
It looks like maybe Saddam wants to come out and play:
A huge column of elite Republican Guard units streamed out of Baghdad Wednesday evening heading toward U.S. forces massed near the southern Iraqi city of Najaf, CNN television reported.
“A major column including about 1,000 Iraqi mobile units that might include tanks, might include armored personnel carriers, trucks and other things are on their way down from Baghdad toward Najaf,” CNN said, quoting one of its reporters who is traveling with the U.S. 7th Cavalry.
CNN said the Republican Guard were moving under cover of a sandstorm which has buffeted Iraq for the past day. It said U.S. troops were preparing for a possible confrontation within hours.
This is the first strategic mistake we’ve seen Saddam make since this operation began. Let me explain.
To date, the Iraqis have played well with the few week cards they hold. With the exception of Saddam’s probably-canned TV appearances, their propaganda effort has been solid — aimed at the domestic audience, the “international community,” and frightened families here in the US. I won’t bother with the details, because you already know them and they disgust me. Leaving small bands behind the lines was also well-played, since they cause a rearward drag on our logistics, and on the Brits and Marines still mostly stuck in the south. And Saddam’s illegal methods of preventing desertions are probably almost as effective as they are brutal.
Saddam isn’t a guy I’d like to play poker with, even though my full house beats his pair of shit. After all, he’d shoot himself and me just as soon as he rans out of chips. But that could take a while, since he’s been betting small and slow, hoping we’ll decide to pass out before the game is over.
If today’s report is accurate, then Saddam is betting half his chips on one hand, when we still hold most of the aces.
Maybe he’s hoping the continuing sandstorm will nullify Coalition airpower enough to give his Republican Guards a fighting chance. Maybe he thinks that the 3rd Infantry Division is at the end of its logistical tether, and lacks the wherewithal for a set-piece battle. Or perhaps it’s just a bluff he hopes Tommy Franks won’t call.
He’s wrong on all three counts.
Is our airpower less effective in today’s nasty weather? You bet it is. But airpower didn’t win the war for us in ’91, and it won’t win the war now. Besides, the sand blinds his forces even more than it blinds ours (we have better goodies), and his air force is non-existent. Really then, the lack of visibility works in our favor, not his — although I wouldn’t try telling that to some poor 7th Cav tanker caught out in it.
Besides, artillery is the real killer in ground combat, and ours can strike from miles out and with chilling accuracy, even in bad weather.
The logistical problem is something else. 3ID has moved fast and far, and fought hard. They’ve shot off a lot of rounds, burned a lot of fuel, and spent a lot of sleepless nights. And they’re dozens and dozens of miles away from the nearest friendly port. Keeping them ready and supplied should be a concern, but don’t let it become a worry. The US Armed Forces are the world’s best when it comes to maintaining logistics — and continuing to fight even when supplies are low. Examples? Normandy. Bastogne. Chosen. VII Corps’ secret move west, in the two weeks before Desert Saber was launched.
Each example given is a case where American logistics performed the near-impossible, or where American soldiers acquitted themselves even without their usual, ample supplies. If Saddam thinks his Republican Guard can do better against 3ID than Hitler’s Wehrmacht could against the Battling Bastards of Bastogne, then I say — bring it on.
And “bring it on” must be exactly what Tommy Franks is hoping for. If Saddam thinks his bluff won’t be called, he’s dead (literally, eventually) wrong. Franks wants Saddam’s thugs to come out of the cities. Franks wants them, sandstorms or not, out in the open. It’s not only easier to kill them in the deserts than it is in the cities, but it’s safer for our troops, and for Iraqi civilians, too.
Come on out and play, Saddam. It may be your field, but it
BTW, I’ve heard the weather’s clearing.
If so, it’s time for Highways of Death 2 and 3.
I agree with you on all counts, but I don’t think Saddam thinks he can win this battle, either. I think he simply intends to cause as much damage as possible with the overall aim not of breaking our troops, but of breaking our national will to carry out this fight.
I also think that he’s been terribly mislead by media reports of demonstrations in the US without the balanced reports of quiet support for the war effort. He was also mislead by nearly a decade of tepid responses to terrorist attacks. I truly believe that he thinks he can win this war not through combat, but through PR and the media.
No matter what he thinks and what he intends, though, this looks like losing strategy for him. Whereas one of our biggest worries was the danger inherent in fighting the war in the streets of Baghdad, he’s given us a gift by sending a huge force out to meet us.
I don’t know, maybe I’m mixed up, but somewhere I think I read we discovered 90 buildings full of munitions near Najuf (who knows if that is correct or not). Does Saddam think he can break through and recover these stores? Bwa ha ha ha ha
Zombyboy is right, I think. Saddam, like much of the Arab world, fails to understand the American street.
What a great twist it would be if it turned out all those protesters did our armed services one huge favor by lulling the enemy into a false sense of security.
I agree with Zombyboy, too.
Could this be when he uses his chemical weapons? That’s the only thing that makes sense. Any other strategery has to be the result of Saddam not hearing what he doesn’t want to hear.
Hitler tried something similar in December of 1945. If I remember correctly the Allies repulsed the attack and murdered exposed German tanks once the weather cleared.
Oh Saddam, how it would have helped you to study the failures of your peers.
The other possibility would be that it’s a cover for something else, probably involving WMD. JSTARS are good, but there is a limit to how much you can track, and if you see 300 vehicles coming, you may not pay attention to the lone toyota pickup truck way off to the left.
People keep forgetting how much nukes, etc. change the parameters of conflict.
All the more reason for regime change.
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The same weather that interferes with our planes seriously degrades Bio and chemical weapons… after all.. a cloud of mustard gas doesn’t do much good going THATaWAY at 40+MPH being scattered all over…
I agree that Saddam may finally be going for the gas.
Perhaps he’s trying to mass his forces in the open in order to engage and fix the 3rd ID in a confined area on ground of his choosing. A WaPo article I’ve read mentions a narrow strip of land between the Euphrates River and Lake Razzaza. He may be seeking a way to maneuver elements of the 3rd ID into that confined space, where he can gas them in a pre-planned attack. There aren’t many other good reasons to do what he’s doing.
It’s still use em or lose em for Saddam’s chemical weapons. As fast as 3rd ID has been moving, and as dispersed as the Marines and Brits are, he’s running out of chances. I’m not sure if he understands that using those weapons is the one thing he could do to turn global opinion decisively against him. I wouldn’t take him up on that that poker game either.