CORRECTION: The NRSC’s Bill Murphy contacted me to let me know that Rothenberg had moved North Carolina to “Tossup/LeansD” from “Tossup”. However, 538 has the race a tossup.
Rothenberg has moved the Iowa race to “Tossup” and the North Carolina and Colorado races to “Tossup/Leans D”. All are improvements for Republican prospects for the fall. The GOP is definitely on offense but there is still a long way to go. The Arkansas race continues to see-saw but Rothenberg believes that Cotton has a slight edge.
Many people I talked to continue to behave as if it’s 2010 all over again but this time around the margin for error is significantly smaller. Confidence to keep working is good, cockiness will keep Harry Reid in place as Majority Leader.
The bad news from Rothenberg is, as many of us feared, Mitch McConnell isn’t exactly leaving Alison Lundergan Grimes in the dust:
Kentucky, on the other hand, remains a risk for the GOP.
Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell’s strong primary victory is worth noting, but the Senate race remains tight and antipathy in the state to the Republican Senate Leader remains considerable. In a bad Republican year, McConnell’s current positioning would be extremely worrisome for the GOP, but the president’s unpopularity and the midterm dynamic should help the incumbent.
Still, until (and unless) McConnell opens up a statistically significant lead, Democrats have every reason to focus their attention and resources on this race.
My fear all along is that Grimes will keep this race so close that the NRSC will start devoting resources to saving McConnell’s hide that could be spent elsewhere to flip a seat.