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Bryan Preston


June 25, 2013 - 10:53 am

On Monday I wrote a warning to Republicans considering supporting the Schumio immigration bill: Vote for it and kiss your base good-bye. Today we get some data to back that up, from National Journal.

A sizable plurality of registered GOP voters say they will be less likely to support their incumbent lawmaker if he or she votes for immigration reform that includes a pathway to citizenship for those currently living illegally in the United States, according to the latest United Technologies/National Journal┬áCongressional Connection Poll. The findings show that even as national Republican leaders tout the Senate’s reform measure as a political necessity for the party, it remains a risky vote for individual GOP lawmakers wary of a primary challenger.

Among all adults surveyed, immigration is something of a moot issue: 42 percent of them said a vote either for or against immigration reform would not greatly affect their support for their senator or representative. Thirty-three percent said it would make them less likely to support him or her, and 21 percent said such a vote would make them more likely to back the incumbent.

But among Republicans, the issue elicits much more passion, none of it good for immigration-reform advocates within the GOP. Nearly half, 49 percent, said lawmakers who back a proposal offering a pathway to citizenship will lose their support. Only 15 percent said it would make them more likely to back their incumbent; 30 percent said it would not make a difference in their vote. (emphasis added)

Blue-collar whites — some of whom were the “Reagan Democrats” — would be hurt the most by the influx of cheap and now legalized labor, and as expected, they’re the most opposed to legalizing those workers. Pitted against them are upscale Republicans in the urban areas who tend to be embarrassed by the party’s rural base. Those upscale Republicans are more receptive to the Schumio scheme.

Republicans flirting with Schumio are hoping to keep their unhappy base while attracting more Hispanic votes. In the end, if that bill passes, they will get neither. They will have fractured the base while there is no evidence that passing the bill earns them even a single new Hispanic vote.

h/t Hot Air

Bryan Preston has been a leading conservative blogger and opinionator since founding his first blog in 2001. Bryan is a military veteran, worked for NASA, was a founding blogger and producer at Hot Air, was producer of the Laura Ingraham Show and, most recently before joining PJM, was Communications Director of the Republican Party of Texas.

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I urge all Americans who still care for our country and our children's futures to understand that this is not a single issue fight or a single election war...we cannot allow more progressives - of either party - to dominate our policies either foreign or domestic. Romney was terribly flawed, but are you (who abstained) happy with a second term of this abomination? Are you willing to surrender your children's fates to what surely awaits them in the future if these anti-American zealots are not defeated? Can you bear to look into your adult children's eyes when they are old enough to realize what we've done by giving up the fight? If you cannot vote for another establishment candidate, then at least vote AGAINST MARXISM/TYRANNY while voting more conservative representatives into the House, more conservatives into the Senate, and taking our government back from the bottom - up. This cannot be accomplished in one election for one office - it must be a process of gaining whatever seats we can when we can while also limiting the damage done by zealous ideologues such as obama, pelosi, reid, and sellouts such as mccain, graham, corker, rubio et al.

We must fight every issue and every election. We will gain tremendous victories some times, and others we may have to simply limit the damage, but the absolute worst thing we could possibly do is NOTHING. Doing nothing only allows the enemies of America to accomplish EVIL goals...sound familiar? "For evil to prevail requires only that good men do nothing..." I couldn't stand Romney either, but we must always keep the greater good - the big picture - squarely within our sights.

Remember BENGHAZI!
1 year ago
1 year ago Link To Comment
So your "big picture" includes voting for "Republicans" who do not reflect one's socio-political values or views just because they aren't Democrats? I would suggest the Republican Party would be wise to stop nominating business-as-usual RINO's who have little chance of being elected. Either that, or form a political Party dedicated to being the designated opposition.
1 year ago
1 year ago Link To Comment
Rubio, McCain, Graham and others have destroyed the Republican party. The next president will not be a Republican since the GOP RINOs will nominate a democrat-lite candidate like McCain. I guarantee they get someone like Romney or Rubio or even Ryan now to run and Hillary is assured the presidency (and I'll stay home).
1 year ago
1 year ago Link To Comment
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