The Romney campaign says it completed some internal polling Sunday night that suggests the Democrats could be in for a rough night.
Internal campaign polling completed last night by campaign pollster Neil Newhouse has Romney three points up in New Hampshire, two points up in Iowa and dead level in Wisconsin and – most startlingly – Pennsylvania.
Internal poll show Romney trailing in Nevada, reflected in a consensus among senior advisers that Obama will probably win the state. Early voting in Nevada has shown very heavy turnout in the Democratic stronghold of Clark County and union organisation in the state is strong.
Romney is to campaign in Cleveland, Ohio and Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania on election day, reflecting the tightness of the race in Ohio and the tantalising prospect of success in Pennsylvania, which has not gone Republican in a presidential campaign for 24 years.
Nearly all public polling put Obama ahead in Ohio by whisker at least. The RealClearPolitics average of polls there gives the president a 2.8 per cent advantage. But the Romney campaign insists that pollsters have their models wrong and are overestimating Democratic turnout and underestimating Republican enthusiasm.
Campaigns tend to discuss internal polls to either shore up wavering supporters, to depress the other side or to bat back at some meme that’s out there in the media. There’s probably a mix of all three reasons in this. It’s true that most of the pollsters have probably overestimated Democratic turnout this time. It’s not 2008 and Obama can’t run as the airy challenger when he has a dismal record that he’s barely bothering to defend.
It’s difficult to fight a media meme based on numbers, even if the numbers are based on erroneous assumptions about turnout. Pennsylvania and Wisconsin have changed remarkably over the past four years and certainly in the past two, but just to look at one example of how badly the media may be misreading this year’s electorate, look at the LA Times electoral map wigdet. It’s one of those online maps that allows users to war game the electoral vote count. But everything regarded as “leaning” one way or the other is locked down. WI and PA are definitely in play now, but that map was published in May at a time when they didn’t seem to be. So the Times‘ map doesn’t even let users see the effects of reallocating their electoral votes. They’re locked in Obama’s orbit, despite the fact that both states represent very winnable contests for Mitt Romney.
This saddens me. I’ve already cast my lot with Romney,but this is a losing campaigns gambit. I pray I’m wrong.
Notice that it’s margin-of-error consistent with the new Gallup and Rasmussen.
I don’t understand what this accomplishes for Romney, unless its a head fake.
Well, good luck tomorrow. I have a difficult time seeing how Romney or anyone else wins if the economic conditions were better. So if there is a win, it is merely a temporary reprieve if politics as normal is practiced. Defeat is, long term, the most likely outcome, and it will have been well-earned.
If Romney loses, we must address how we can convince Hispanics that limited government is a plausible solution to their problems. We now have in this country a majority that consists of ethnic groups who have no history of Enlightenment/self-government. We are breeding a deplorable Man.
I understand that Toby Harnden is a “friendly”, but never believe anything you read in an English newspaper about US poliitics. Anthing can happen, because all is to be determined tomorrow, but there is a very good chance that Romney/Ryan are headed to a decisive victory. Michael Barone has forgotten more about US politics and Toby Harnden can ever know, and he predicts a decisive R/R victory in the EC. Voter enthusiasm, Republican voter ID advantage, independent movement to R/R, state of the economy, Tea Party desire to work off the grid, 9% participation in polling, quartions about Sandy response, Bengazhi, etc. all lead to a murkey picture that looks good for R/R. Go vote tomorropw and take a like-minded friend.
– blue state is anger and it’s not directed at Mitt.
There’s no advantage at all for internal polling to be anything other than as accurate as possible. Polling firms who conduct internal polling for candidates and are wrong don’t get hired again, it’s that simple.
There is every reason to believe these numbers are as accurate as possible. Romney winning in Wisconsin, New Hampshire, Ohio, and Pennsylvania on the way to 330+ electoral votes, along with Florida, Virginia, Colorado, and North Carolina is not only probable but extremely likely.
And yes, I believe Obamee’s concession speech will come just after 11 PM, with Romney well over 300 EVs and Minnesota and Oregon too close to call.
The urban riots should kick into high gear almost immediately.
Be ready. Tomorrow night is going to be historic.