Refer back to my “Stay Calm and Finish Him” post for some details, but here’s the prediction: All, or nearly all, states in which the poll on Romney/Obama is even within the margin of error will go for Romney.  My reasoning is  this:

  • All these samples seem to me to still imply a greater D turnout than R. Nearly all actual reported early voting has been heavily Republican, plus we have the Washington Post polling on defectors.  So it seems very probable that the actual turnout will be favoring Republicans, possibly heavily.
  • The “Sandy” debacle isn’t making Obama’s administration look good.  This may not mean more votes for Romney (although it could), but it may well depress Democrat voters on Tuesday.
  • Romney/Ryan are drawing tens of thousands, Obama/Biden thousands or hundreds.  Again, this indicates greater enthusiasm and suggests greater Republican turnout.

If I’m right, that’s 341 R/ 197 O.