November 4, 2012 - 7:18 am
Refer back to my “Stay Calm and Finish Him” post for some details, but here’s the prediction: All, or nearly all, states in which the poll on Romney/Obama is even within the margin of error will go for Romney. My reasoning is this:
- All these samples seem to me to still imply a greater D turnout than R. Nearly all actual reported early voting has been heavily Republican, plus we have the Washington Post polling on defectors. So it seems very probable that the actual turnout will be favoring Republicans, possibly heavily.
- The “Sandy” debacle isn’t making Obama’s administration look good. This may not mean more votes for Romney (although it could), but it may well depress Democrat voters on Tuesday.
- Romney/Ryan are drawing tens of thousands, Obama/Biden thousands or hundreds. Again, this indicates greater enthusiasm and suggests greater Republican turnout.
If I’m right, that’s 341 R/ 197 O.
As I have said since July;
Obama will win, California, New York, Illinois, Vermont and the District of Columbia.
Obama May win Washington, Oregon, Maine, and Hawaii.
All other states will vote Romney.
The republicans will gain 12 in the Senate and hold the House with 7 to 11 seats gained.
I can now state what I think the Popular Vote outcome will be;
The Popular Vote Split will be – Romney 54 Obama 45
I’ve been thinking it could break along those lines, too with Illinois being uncomfortably close for Obama. Obama is an urban leftist and this is still a center-right suburban nation. Obama’s policies are a war on the suburban way of life. He will carry the big cities and little else.
Romney will win Massachusetts? Delaware, with Biden on the other ticket? Maryland? New Mexico?
Massachusetts is still unlikely but New Mexico was very close in both 2000 and 2004.
On all those (CA, WA, OR, NY, VT, IL is right; I’d bet OBambie wins RI, MA, CT, NJ MD, NM, Romney wins the rest = 341-197.
Your guesstimate of the popular vote is about right.
My assumptions:
1) Voter fraud is minimal, inconsequential (yeah, right)
2) Eleven battleground states are not “tweaked” with a few thousand in each.
Then:
1) What does outgoing Buttcrack Obama do to sabotage the US in the 74 days until the Romney Inaugural?
Obama definitely takes Hawaii. That’s as in the bag as D.C.
I hope you’re right. Actually, I hope you’re wrong and Mitt captures over 400 EVs. But 341 will do nicely.
Get out. Volunteer. Knock on doors (clean up first) make calls. If you have a specialty that can bring out votes (I don’t know. I write stuff. Maybe YOU can bribe voters with cookies, who knows?) do so.
The one thing you don’t want is to look back on Wednesday and say “if only I had.” LET YOUR CONSCIENCE BE CLEAR.
Sons of Gondor, of Rohan, my brothers!
I see in your eyes the same fear that would take the heart of me.
A day may come when the courage of Men fails
When we forsake our friends and break all bonds of fellowship
But it is not this day
An hour of wolves and shattered shields when the Age of Man comes crashing down
But it is not this day!
This day we fight!
By all that you hold dear on this good earth
I bid you stand, Men and Women of the West!
Outstanding! Best comment ever!!!!!
I agree with Buck O’Fama: I also hope you are wrong. I hope Romney wins over 500 EVs.
I think this is the most optimistic guesstimate I’ve seen, Charlie. Maybe it’s the effect of two double whoppers on the limbic system?
I know, but it’s the way the math-and-intuition works out. Remember Obama? It went that way for him in 2008 — nearly every toss-up went his way.
That may have been something other than luck. That was probably something other than luck.
AND THAT is what scares me. The fraud is still in action. GO WORK.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A-yZNMWFqvM
Two Double Whoppers, without the bread.
Romney will win Massachusetts? Maryland? New Mexico?
Delaware will vote against their favorite son?
Sorry for the duplication, I seem to have technical hitches on this blog.
There’s something about an optimistic self-described nerd to brighten the day! Keep carrying on, ChaCo.
I project Romney winning AL, AK, AZ, AR, CO, FL, GA, ID, IN, IA, KS, KY, LA, ME-02, MI, MN, MS, MO, MT, NE, NV, NH, NM, NC, ND, OH, OK, OR, PA, SC, SD, TN, TX, UT, VA, WV, WI, WY. Thirty-seven states and 1 electoral ME’s 2nd congressional district makes 360 electoral votes. With popular ranging in 51-55 percent in Romney’s favor. Biggest symbolic victory I believe will be in Minnesota seeing it has voted under the Democratic fold the longest of any state aside from District of Columbia.
I live in Minnesota. The Star Tribune’s last poll had it Obama 50 Romney 47, within the margin of error. Given how skewed the Star Tribune polls have been, that means Romney is going to win this state. Consider also that we’ve got 2 referenda that will bring out people who don’t often vote. Last time those folks turned out, Jesse Ventura beat the best two gubernatorial candidates the Reps or Dems had ever put forth.
Oh yes, GOP will win Senate in range of 50-54 seats. #Mittmentum will simply be too much for Dems in states like OH, FL, VA to overcome where they’re gonna vote BIG for Romney.
I’m thinking 52% to 48% Romney with 296 electoral votes. I don’t think Pennsylvania, Michigan, Minnesota or Nevada will fall to Romney. I do give him NC, VA, FL, OH, WI, CO, NH and 1 electoral vote from ME 2.
Admittedly Nevada may have fallen out of Romney’s hands, but did you see a recent poll out of Minnesota and also one out of MI where Romney holds a 1 point lead in each!? Also there’s a marriage amendment on the MN ballot that’ll certainly turn out the evangelical vote and thereby help carry Romney over the top. Also strong potential in Oregon where I saw a poll a few days ago where Big O was under 50 and Romney was only 6 points down. So I see a potential landslide of 340-360 electoral votes in Romney’s fold. Or in the range of 34-37 states including ME-02 in the high range.
I was aware of the Minnesota poll, of which I’m highly skeptical. It was conducted by a conservative PAC or SuperPAC, by a firm that regularly polls for GOP candidates. It also has an unusually high number of undecideds this late in the game.
The marriage amendment, I believe, will draw just as many Twin Cities liberals to vote against as Western county evangelicals to vote for.
I really hold no hope for Oregon. The Portland corridor has overwhelmed the red interior of the state. It’ll be closer this time, but will remain out of reach.
That all being said, I hope you are right about the outcome this Tuesday night.
I pretty much agree with Esau’s Message, but I give Romney PA and Obama OH. And I think it will be +3 in the Senate, resulting in 50/50, with an outside chance of +4. House will be +/- 3 influenced by local rather than national issues. Popular vote 52-48. Hope I am underestimating.
I understand your skepticism about Ohio. It has been a ripe apple throughout the campaign but has remained just out of Romney’s reach, if you believe the polls. But I believe Ohio will move to trend, as it always has, and drop on election day.
I don’t share your sanguinity re Pennsylvania. It will be close, closer than OfA ever expected, but Ed Rendell is cranking up his machine and it will cheat its way to delivering the Commonwealth to Obama. According to Jay Cost, Obama probably needs about 470,000 votes in Philly county to carry it, Ed will give him a round 500k, just for safety sake.
separated at birth?
I have only tiny disagreements. I think 2-3% is more likely, since Sandy appears to have gifted the Fraud with a percent or two, and I can’t quite see the New England state shaking off the influence of the Boston propaganda machine…so I come up with 291 electoral votes for Romny.
I just replied to your initial comment as you were replying to mine. Maybe separated at birth.
I understand your skepticism re NH. It’s well founded, over the last three decades the southern counties have begun to look more and more like Brookline than Manchester.
I’m not buying the Sandy boost for Obama.
We can either agree to disagree or fight it out the way two brothers would. Your call.
Yup, that’s a prediction alrighty!
And it would be lovely to have it 1000% accurate.
I’m just too dismayed at the idea that anybody at all would vote for Obama, as I sit here hunkered down in my bunker in Blue Kalifornistan. Well, at least we concentrate a whole herd of leftie loons out here, so the other 56 states have that many fewer to deal with.
– decrepit Jerry’s Prop. 30 is going down and Prop. 32 will pass. Let the cuts begin!
For some reason the map won’t come up on my labtop so my guess wld be is that you put AL, AK, AZ, AR, CO, FL, GA, ID, IN, IA, KS, KY, LA, MI, MN, MS, MO, MT, NE, NH, NC, ND, OH, OK, OR, PA, SC, SD, TN, TX, UT, VA, WV, WI, WY under Romney’s fold.
– Obomo couldn’t take time to visit Berlin, knew Mitt would win.
Rasmussen is too close for 341 to be likely. I’m also a bit concerned that Sandy has given the Fraud a boost; expecting Gallup to show 1 or 2% for Romney, assuming they can have something ready by Monday.
It seems to me that Virginia is in some doubt and Ohio/ Wiscsonsin/ Colorado/ Iowa / and NH have to be treated as tossups, and Pennsylvania, Nevada and Michigan as outside possibilities.
That gives Romney 235 high probability (RCP safe states plus NC and Fl), Virginia (13) with a good chance, 47 tossup electoral votes, and 42 electoral votes possible, but unlikely. That points to a real nail-biter.
If Virginia doesn’t go for Romney Tuesday night, prepare to be horrified.
But if Monday holds no surprises, I’ll guess 291 for Romney (NC, FL, VA, CO, OH, Iowa, WI in descending order of win %). 321 would make it a mandate election (all RCP Toss-ups less Michigan and Nevada which are both centers of fraud).
I want to reassure you about Virginia, where I live. Obama has long since lost the suburbs outside of NoVa. He’s also lost the small town and rural whites, including Southwestern Virginia. He will receive an overwhelming black vote, but turnout will fall short of 2012 by a small but significant margin. That leaves NoVa which I predict will be split precisely down the middle. If I’m right, Obama will have lost Virginia and its thirteen electoral votes. You should feel comfortable increasing your estimate to 248 and working from there.
Don’t celebrate yet… reload!
– shots count, Ladies and Gentlemen!
The Susquehanna Polling & Research came out with 47/47% split 11/04/2012 on a polling sample of 800 voters. I get the feeling people in PA are suffering from pollster fatigue and the results will be more like 51/47 percent in favor of Romney despite the votes of the dead in Philly. As was stated in another blog. If PA goes Romney game over.
From your keyboard to God’s ears.
Its sad that this election poll here tht im reading is based on race(color), if u want a lying scum tobe president tham vote Romney, hes a big liar, n has bn caught several times doing so. yall hv bn downing Obama, simce bfre he was elected n yall will continue. Romney is for rich, n if u not rich u WILL surely suffer, I VOTE FOR JESUS! YALL BETTER STRT PRAYING, I DO KNOW THT!!!!!! we are in our last days n the ignorance is still prevailing,,, GT A GRIP ON JESUS, N HOLD ON N ASK JOM TO FORGIVE YALL RACIST HEARTS, OH YEAH IM CAUCASION BY THE WAY
Don’t experiment with self help. Find your local AAA immediately.
I think you mean AA, unless he needs his car towed. And I’m kinda hoping he doesn’t have one, if you catch my drift.
Was away from Colorado for three weeks. Yesterday while wearing my Romney cap, I had these experiences.
1) One of my yoga instructors told me she loved my cap.
2)Went to Floyds for a haircut…home of the multiple tramp stamp barbers…young girl cutting my hair said she loved my hat. Said most the employees were voting for Romney and that they are mostly young mothers.
3) Went to the yoga clothing store. TWO employees, both blond, young, beautiful, fit, said they loved my hat and couldn’t wait to vote for Romney. That they would say that at this store was a revelation.
If Obama has lost the yoga vote, it is over.
I pray you’re right!
Spot on. Nate Silver knows nothing. Cherish your moment of insight, the next four years will forget your genius.