The headline at Talking Points Memo yesterday was an eye-opener:
Romney, GOP Groups Pull Ads From Michigan and Pennsylvania
The story was based on an article in the Detroit News.
Mitt Romney’s conservative allies are bypassing Michigan with their advertising while stepping up efforts in other battleground states — suggesting campaign strategists don’t believe his road to the White House leads through his native state.
The pro-Romney groups American Crossroads and Americans for Prosperity are pouring nearly $13 million into advertising in key states, indicating they remain eager to lend considerable financial muscle to Romney in states viewed as truly competitive.
There are no presidential campaign ads of any kind airing in Pennsylvania and Michigan, according to information provided by media trackers to the Associated Press.
One reason the Romney forces may have pulled money out of Michigan is President Barack Obama’s campaign and a political action committee supporting his re-election aren’t spending here either, said Rich Robinson, director of Michigan Campaign Finance Network.
“You don’t spend money if you know you’re going to win or you know you’re going to lose, and Obama hasn’t spent five cents” in Michigan, Robinson said.
In other battleground states, such as Ohio and Florida, the race is more fluid than in Michigan where Obama’s lead in the polls has remained “status quo,” said GOP political strategist Greg McNeilly.
A recent Detroit News/WDIV Local 4 poll showed Obama up 5.5 percentage points, while Public Policy Polling found the president leading by 7 percentage points this week.
“If the (polling) data says you’re not getting a return at present, then you move it to where you get a higher return,” McNeilly said. “That in no way means that Michigan is over.”
While the Romney campaign has spent almost no money on advertising in either state, conservative groups have spent $10.9 million this election cycle on broadcast television ads targeting Obama or touting Romney, according to new data collected by Michigan Campaign Finance Network.
The last pro-Romney TV ad in Michigan was a $528,000 spot Restore Our Future political action committee bought last month during the Olympics touting the former Massachusetts governor’s efforts to revive the fledgling 2002 Winter Olympics in Salt Lake City, Robinson said.
It should be noted that the blogger at TPM really needs to get himself into a remedial reading course. First of all, Romney didn’t pull any ads in Michigan … because he had none to pull; he hadn’t even advertised there.
Secondly, with Obama not advertising in Michigan or Pennsylvania at the moment, it makes sense to hold off investing in those states until the last few weeks. That way, if Romney remains in a competitive position, he can target either or both states (not likely) to see if he could pick them off. Michigan would appear to be the more viable target, as Pennsylvania would only fall to Romney if he wins the popular vote by a considerable margin.
Jennifer Rubin isn’t buying the Romney desertion:
When the Romney-Ryan ticket announced a major ad campaign in eight states last night, the media noted that Wisconsin and Michigan were not among them and then jumped to the conclusion that these states are no longer in play. Wrong. Romney spokeswoman Andrea Saul told Right Turn that the campaign is “definitely not” abandoning these states. She told me: “Stay tuned.”
The Romney-Ryan camp, I was told, has expensive ground games in these states, as well as in Pennsylvania. Saul provided the stats:
Michigan
* 21 offices across the state
* More than 1 million voter contacts
* Sixth most voter contacts in the country
* Knocked on more than 100,000 doors
Pennsylvania
* 23 offices across Pennsylvania
* More voter contacts last week than any other week this cycle
* More than 1.5 million voter contacts
* Fourth most voter contacts in the country
* Knocked on more than 200,000 doors
It sure sounds like Romney is in both states till the finish. The fact that the superPACS have pulled out means little. They can always jump back in if the conditions are right.
The one worrying thing about this is that it shows just how hard it will be for Romney to overcome even small leads in individual states by Obama. With so many voters having already made up their minds, catching up in any state will be hard to do.
If one has the resources, not competing in those states would be foolish. It’s called the strategy of exhaustion. It’s not about winning them.
This is a very strange election. So strange that I don’t think it would be a stretch to suggest that Romney and Obama are actually on the same team and you guys are being played. Remember, none of you people really ever liked Romney and now the chickens are coming home to roost.
Yes, you should have that sinking feeling …
yes
because the trilateralists are the real winners
and dr. claw the biggest winner of them all
Still don’t like Mitt. Will NOT vote for him. Might vote for PR.
I’m focused on the Senate right now. Get 51 Senate seats and get rid of Boner and Berry will spend the next 4 years being impeached. That will prevent any mischief on his part.
The latest fear-mongering is that the Obumbler and his clown posse will try running the government through the bureaucracies. Congress can stop that easy enough. With 51 Senators and a House Leader with a pair, the EPA can be changed from an agency with regulatory powers to a measurement unit under Interior. Do that and the other bureaucrats will remember who butters their bread.
Besides if Romney loses, it will mean the old guard Republicans need replacement, which they do. LL3 is using the Primary process to clear out RINO’s, which seems to be the way to go.
Fixing the economy is easy. 4 more years of Obama dodging impeachment will not make it harder. Plus there is the moral factor. The Socialists/Marxists/Progressives/ Libertarians/Communists/Liberals/Statists whatever they are calling themselves today think that if Obama wins, the right will quit.
As John Paul Jones said; “I have not yet begun to fight!”
Better to shower at Penn State then vote Democrat.
It takes 67 Senators to convict on an impeachment. 51 is no use at all.
And it takes 2/3 of both Houses to pass legislation over the President’s veto. If you really want the EPA reformed, or Obamacare repealed, there has to be a Republican in the White House.
Really?? If Obama wins THERE WON’T BE AN ELECTION in four years. You apparently think his open mike statement to Medvedev in March of this year, when he said he’ll have more flexibility when he said “this is my last election” was a harmless gaffe.
If you want to make a bold statement do it after this election. Because if this Socialist Obama wins your political choice will be nothing but hot air.
Oh, it’s not really about liking Romney. It’s about getting Democrats out of executive power so that I don’t have to constantly worry about what “fundamental transformation” tomfoolery is going to be unilaterally made this week. I’d like to go spend time on something else and let the fundamental nature of our federal government coast for a while.
With Romney I can expect no Iraqs and no ObamaCares. He might do amnesty, but that can be combatted via Congress. Nope, with Romney it will be the “little platoons” doing the good work of America, and some peace and quiet on the national government front. Who could want more?
Actually, no. Romney was on the tube today saying he will keep the good parts of Obamacare.
“Well, I’m not getting rid of all of health care reform,” the former Massachusetts governor said in an interview with NBC’s “Meet the Press.” “Of course there are a number of things that I like in health care reform that I’m going to put in place. One is to make sure that those with pre-existing conditions can get coverage. Two is to assure that the marketplace allows for individuals to have policies that cover their family up to whatever age they might like. I also want individuals to be able to buy insurance, health insurance, on their own as opposed to only being able to get it on a tax advantage basis through their company.”
In other words, he want to pass Romneycare at the federal level. Oops! That’s what Obamacare is!
It sounds to me that Romney would just like to repeal the Affordable Care Act. Then pass a bill identical to it, so he can have his name as the president who signed it rather than President Obama. It gets weirder and weirder …
You are such an idiot!
That article IS A CBS-AP HACK PIECE. One example IN THAT HACK PIECE:
“Of course there are a number of things that I like in health care reform that I’m going to put in place…….”One is to make sure that those with pre-existing conditions can get coverage.”
Then THE HACK WHO WROTE THAT ARTICLE SAYS: “Those provisions have been two of the more popular parts of Obama’s Affordable Care Act”
Where does Romney himself say ANYTHING specifically about keeping ANYTHING in place with respect to obamacare? Romney and Ryan have provisions in ther own plan that may be similar but they don’t contain the Stalinist bureaucratic procedures which obamacare uses to go about implementing them.
Either you’re a lying liberal troll or you’re buying into that HACK PIECE……my guess is you’re a lying left wing troll.
Lying? C. Blunder? Nooooo!!!! Way!
You People… Who are they?
Cynical Wnder
“Remember, none of you people…
September 8, 2012 – 8:33 pm
21. Obi-jonKenobi
“In the unending barrage of misinformation, disinformation, and outright lies that characterize…”
“He lied.”
“Seriously people, you don’t understand recipients??? ”
“..read the drool that pjmedia puts out, that explains it.”
“…lying about …
“He lied…”
“He lied…”
“He even dishonestly…”
“I could go on but what’s the point, you people actually seem to ENJOY being lied to.”
August 30, 2012 – 9:52 am
Obi-jonKenobi
“Um…”
September 4, 2012 – 1:17 pm
Buuuck, buck, buck, buck.
Catching up is, indeed, hard to do. But it is a matter of catching up? Polling allegedly shows Romney up by 3 in Georgia – hooray, right? Well, McCain won the State by 5…which means that Romney is weaker than McCain (anyone really want to argue that?) or it means the polling is screwed up. Given the drop in Obama support (and even dyed in the wool liberals only expect that Obama will win re-election by a narrow margin as opposed to his 53% of the vote in 2008) is it at all logical that Romney would under-performing McCain in Georgia? (true, Romney has a bit of a RINO tag about him and that might hurt him a bit in conservative Georgia…but McCain had every bit as much RINOism – if not more – than Romney does). My guess is that on average the polling is about 6 percentage points unfavorable to Romney – ie, if you see a poll, add 3 to Romney, subtract 3 from Obama and you’ll get close to reality. Time will tell, of course…but every actual bit of hard data (crowd size, donations, party registration data, party ID polls, etc, etc, etc.) indicates a looming Romney landslide, not a hard fought, tight race to a photo finish.
I agree that the polls vs. the vibe are very different- although we may just be kidding ourselves.
But there is something very odd about this election season, because Obama should simply not be polling as well as he is. There may be a much greater discrepancy than usual between who says they’re gong to show up and vote and who actually does… and who they actually vote for.
Dana,
I really should start to preface all my election comments with, “maybe I’m missing something hyper-important”…because, you’re right, there does seem to be a disconnect between the polling and the vibe. I do keep rolling it over in my mind – what am I missing? But I also keep coming back to, “look what people are doing”. That, to me, is always key – people can say whatever they want but what they actually do shows where the reality is. If Romney was really only up by 3 in Georgia both he and Obama would be in Georgia. I doubt that either of them has an office in the State…as for North Carolina, still called a “battleground State”, Obama’s first trip there since May was for the convention…and I don’t see any indication he’ll be back. Meanwhile, Romney is reported to have 21 offices in Michigan…a State Obama won by 16.5 percentage points in 2008. Supposedly, Obama is still up by 3 or so in Nevada – but it is a State he won by 12.4 percentage points in 2008; and unemployment here in Nevada is 12%. Does it really seem credible that someone who led us to 12% unemployment would be ahead in a State which is normally a complete toss up at election time?
We shall see what happens on November 6th. If the American people want four more years of Obama, they’ll get them. But the more I look at it, the more I see “Romney landslide”.
Most polls that I have been hearing about are reported to have anywhere from a 6-9 point edge in polling of democRATs and that isn’t the way the voters are, giving a very false read of what the population is thinking and feeling.
So when obozo can’t even have a lead it is really the potential for a huge loss for him.
And think about it, media has to deal with unemployment numbers and fudge with those to keep the number close to 8% and are now admitting that those that drop out would make it worse if they were counted, which they aren’t
You are just talking out of your a$$ dude. Nate Silver currently has Obama at, I believe, 315 electoral votes. The Dems had a very good convention and the republicans had an awful one. Sometimes elections are won or lost at the conventions. This may be one of those years. It is certainly too early to tell how much of a bump Obama is getting or how long it will last, but right now it isn’t looking bad.
Nate Silver? Give me a break? You mean the guy who totally missed the 2010 results? Or perhaps the guy who shared internal polling data with the 2008 Obama campaign?
Nate Silver is an intelligent man of integrity, despite being a Democrat. All respect to Nate Silver.
But he is just an aggregator of polls. He can tell us what the polls say. But the hypothesis being considered in this thread is that the polls are, for some reason, inaccurate this year. If this is so, it’s highly unlikely that Nate, whatever his skills, can successfully compensate for it.
Last time I looked at his page, Nate was giving Obama around a 78% chance of victory. Is Obama acting like someone with a 78% chance of victory? No, he’s acting desperate. Is Romney/Ryan acting like a team subject to certain defeat? No, to me he’s been acting like a winner.
The only clue we have here is that many of the polls seem to be oversampling Democrats, often by high margins. If you oversample Democrats, you are going to get a Democratic-favored result.
There is also the possibility of a lot of emotion over America’s first Black President. It’s possible voters don’t want to say they are voting against him, but will anyway. I have no idea how to poll for that possibility.
So I dunno. Based on the facts on the ground, it’s very hard for me to think Romney is headed for the certain defeat Nate Silver feels. And I don’t think Romney had that good a convention, or Obama had that good a one. In the end, the take away from the Republicans is Clint Eastwood’s bizarre but extremely effective speech. The take away from the Democrats was Clinton, with a brilliant first 20 minutes that then dissolved into the usual petty sounding laundry list. In the long run I don’t think either moved many enough to matter. The Republican convention pushed Romney up two points, the Democratic seems to have pushed him down two points, so in the end we are stuck where we were before.
Where ever that is …
D
Ohio is gone for Romney. Even his own camp is admitting it. I understand your desire to find a crumb of hope where ever you can. It keeps the spirits up and the troops rallied. However, no republican has won the WH in a very long time without Ohio. That is not to say it can’t be done, but the scenario that would need to transpire in order for that to happen is almost astronomically impossible. When Romney said he would have let the auto industry go bankrupt he put the last nail in his electoral coffin. He ceded Ohio to Obama. Romney will be lucky is he gets 220 electoral votes. he may very well do worse than McCain, which is hard to believe.
Where’s O B Bullshit One C. Blunder?
There’s another explanation:
Quietly, without much media attention, the Hispanic population in Georgia has been growing steadily. And they’re supporting Obama over Romney by about 3 to 1.
The growing Hispanic population tipped California blue years ago. It tipped New Mexico (formerly a GOP stronghold) blue. And now it threatens to make even Georgia a swing state.
The problem with that growth is that naturally part of it is illegal, and thus taints the whole as illegitimate if used to gain political power.
Glad to hear the Repubs are not giving up in Michigan and Pennsylvania. That would have been disturbing news indeed. However the many polls showing the presidential contest neck-and-neck or Obama leading are disturbing enough. Hard to believe that any American would vote for Obama today, let alone a majority. Maybe the democrats and the left entertainment/education complex have just been so successful at demonizing business people, capitalism, and white men in general. Is it just me or is anyone else bothered by those white and light blue shirts Romney and Ryan keep wearing? The other day I saw Ryan in red, much better. I’d like to see them both in darker colors, dark green, blue, etc. They may be white but their shirts don’t have to be….
I’ll tell you why my relatives will vote for Obama. Because they were ‘born and raised’ Democrats. They buy into that old reliable lie that the Democrats care about the little guy and the Republicans only care about the rich. All of them think like conservatives (hunt, own guns, are against abortion, for traditional marriage, don’t like people getting money handed to them for doing nothing, love the country and respect the military) but vote like liberals. I think if their hand ever went near a Republican lever on the voting machine it would fall off. They are all nice people who I love dearly but are so misguided when it comes to politics. They are voting for people whose political views are totally opposite theirs. I constantly ask myself how they could do this. I guess you could say ther have been ‘brainwashed’.
It’s pretty common with people who don’t watch the news or keep up with politics. If you’re a Democrat with conservative leanings, but don’t realize what your party has become because you get your news from NBC … I wouldn’t blame you for voting for Obama, and believing that everything going wrong is the fault of George Bush and the Republican congress if that’s all you hear.
I guess you can try to wake them up, but you’ll have to overcome the “normalcy bias” wherein people denounce overwhelming evidence that challenges their beliefs in an effort to avoid change.
Maybe the best you can hope to accomplish is to discourage them so that they stay home on election day.
You don’t need your relatives in Michigan to vote for a Republican…
You just need them to stay home on November 6.
Michigan has suffered so much under this President, they all know the “auto industry bail-out” was a scam.
They’re tired and cynical and pissed, in other words, they’re going to stay home.
Reminds me of an old man down here in Texas (still democrat at the time) when McGovern was running. “my Grandaddy voted Democrat, mr Daddy voted Democrat and I will always vote Democrat”. My dad talk to him and told him about McGovern and what he stood for. The man just kept shaking his head. My dad just kept talking. Finally…he said..”well, if I can’t vote Democrat…I guess I just won’t vote!”
There you go….
..you can fool some of the people all the time..
This is all BS designed to suppress Romney’s turnout. Rasmussen’s latest survey of Party ID shows a D/R/I split of 33.3/37.6/29.2 as of Sep 1. This is stark contrast to Nov 2008 when it was 41.4/33.8/24.7 and better than Nov 2010′s 34.7/36.0/29.3. This means that there has been about a +12 pt swing to the R’s since Nov 2008. Obama won in 2008 by 7 pts – how can anyone believe he is ahead by 4 or 5 with a 12 pt swing AWAY from his party, especially after Dem Carville says Romney is 16 pts AHEAD with the Ind voters which Obama won by 8 in 2008? Where the hell are these missing voters gonna come from, the graveyard? Or are a bunch of GOP voters gonna cross over and vote for Obama because they forgot to in 2008? It does not make a lot of sense. Either Rasmussen’s party ID survey is waaaaay off or the MSM polling is. BTW, it seems that when you look at their samples, they are still using the party ID breakdown of 2008. It’s utter BS.
These are all good points. When I first saw some of these stories appear yesterday, I knew they were bogus because Romney has an excellent chance of winning all of these states. Although no one expects Romney to win Massachusetts, I read something very fascinating the other day which said that if the difference between Romney and Obama in Massachusetts were in the single digits, then Obama was going to have serious difficulty winning the election. With Scott Brown polling well against Fauxcahontas, I imagine that even Massachusetts may be close for Obama. And if Massachusetts is close, then Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, and who knows what other “blue” states will definitely be in play.
Saw an interesting poll that has Obama up by 7 points in NJ. NJ? I’m not saying Romney has a real chance here, but shouldn’t Obama be up by at least 15 points ? One thing about the Garden State, the presidential polls usually have the Democrat up by 11 or 12 , and the true margin on election day is usually half that….
Once again, the strangeness of it all – Obama won Massachusetts by 25.8 percentage points and New Jersey by 14.7 percentage points. If he’s even ahead by 15 in MA and 10 in NJ then he’s still suffered a massive loss of support – which should translate all across the nation with even bigger losses of support in the “purple” and “red” States. MA and NJ are happy hunting grounds for Big Government liberals…as Obama is the biggest Big Government liberal we’ve ever had then he should at least hold his 2008 margins (or very close to them) in the liberal States.
Given some of the polling I’ve seen in Blue States, my rough calculation is that any State Obama won by 5 or less is gone. That is FL, NC, OH and IN. With these (presuming Romney holds all the McCain States – almost a foregone conclusion) Romney is at 253 EVs. Any State Obama won by 10 or less is “tossup”. That is VA, NH, IA and CO. These total 32 EVs of which, if its a narrow election, Romney will have to win 17 (so, VA and NH would do it). But add in the two States Obama barely won by more than 10 (PA and MN for a total of 30 extra EVs Romney can realistically try for in a narrow election). And then consider that Romney has 21 offices in MI…which should be out of reach in a narrow election. Put a gun to my head right now and say, “make an EV prediction or die”, and I’d have to say 347/191 in Romney’s favor.
BTW, here is the link to Rasmussen’s poll http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/archive/mood_of_america_archive/partisan_trends/summary_of_party_affiliation
You can see that the R vs D spread fluctuates but it has been pretty steadily R greater than D for most of this year. Contrast this with 2010 when the Dems had a 3-4 pt lead most of the year and 2008 when they were 7-9 pts ahead most of the year.
Make the Lefty/Dems pay — and pay dearly — for every vote they get. Spending money in PA or MI means Dems have less money to spend elsewhere.
Good news considering the GOP has the money advantage.
For what it’s worth, in regard to polling….Does anyone remember how Axelrod strongarmed Gallup last week? Now Gallup has Obama job approval at 52 percent. Coincidence? I think now. It’s a miracle, Chicago style.
It simply means that the election results will be falsified. They learned how to do that from their friends in Russia.
I know. …. I know … jumps up … waves arms. Mitt’s going all in for California. He’s gonna do it. I just know.
sarc/off
• Must See… Daylight: The Story of Obama and Israel (Video) http://shar.es/uHk2B via @gatewaypundit
This might not be exactly on the subject, but you listen to it and if doens’t make you want to spit – I don’t know what will.
The jews had better wake up!
Romney can win Pennsylvania. In 2010, we elected Republican Governor Tom Corbett and Republicans captured both the state House and Senate. I’ve noticed a steady trend to conservative values in my area of Southwestern PA over the last few years and this momentum is continuing. Also, look for a sleeper candidate in the US Senate race, that being a really good guy by the name of Tom Smith. Smith is the anti-politician, a self-made man who was a farmer and coal miner, who then started his own highly successful coal company.
Republicans won’t win Pennsylvania. They always try to make it look like a swing state but it isn’t. Romney will be lucky if he gets 220 electoral voted. You heard it here.
I’m sure everyone here is hanging on your every word. Got any hot stock tips?
Ah, how much Kool-Aid it must take.
Hmmm. Nate Silver told you so?
Obama’s already lost Western PA as well as Eastern OH for the same reason he lost WVA–his stance on coal and on fracking. He’s done here. Philadelphia is obviously O’s, but my money is that turnout will be down. That leaves Bucks county and the north Philly suburbs.
They voted their wallets in 2010, and they’ll vote their wallets now. It will be within 1-2% this year, perhaps a big surprise for Romney.
Cynical Wonder/Concern Troll,
I’ve got $100 says Romney’s the next POTUS. Want to put your money where your mouth is?
I don’t have any money. I live on Hope & (the spare) Change (I find in the couches of friends’ who let me crash with them). I am running out of couches & friends, and that makes me so angry at Conservatives I could spit. So I sprew vomit all over Conservative sites like a worthless Troll.
Dear Mac
Cynical Wonder does not need to bet you. As an Obama supporter Cynical Wonder will get your hard earned money anyway.
Rue
Ohio is gone kiddos. Not much else needs to be said. Even the Romney camp is admitting it.
Of course, even though they know they are behind in the polls this ‘admitting that they are’ could just be a strategery of sorts. They admit they are losing in the hopes it makes the Democrats complacent. Then, right at the end, they do a bum rush for the finish line. You guys should volunteer! They’re gonna need all the help they can get. The more bums the better!
Is Rick Moran trying to suppress the Republican vote in those states? Quoting polls that are heavily weighted to favor the Democrats in the sampling makes me think he’s getting paychecks from 0bama’s campaign treasury. There are 60 days to the election and I don’t think Romney is giving up these states and any other swing state.
A better question to ask with regards to the current polls is whether or not we’ve reached a tipping point as a country, where half plus of the population is voting for money from the other people.
The Democratic party is a coalition of parasites.
The Republicans just don’t know how to campaign anymore, especially not in the new reality of so much ignorance (thanks to the teacher’s unions) and dependence on government.
Honestly, I’ll be amazed if Romney even comes close to winning. And if Obama gets a second term, we’re done. Between a full bore amnesty and open door policy plus the economic devastation his policies will unleash (and all the dependence that will create) the Democrats will have a permanent lock on power such that elections won’t even matter anymore. Then things will really go to the dogs.
How could any of the coal states vote for 0bozo? He has put them out of work, and has put them out of business.
Remember when he said he was going to bankrupt anyone who wanted to open a coal mine?
Come on Pennsylvania, show him that he is not your boss!
If you want to see what kind of a man he really is to our friends / watch this and if you don’t get angry, well, I can’t help you.
• Must See… Daylight: The Story of Obama and Israel (Video) http://shar.es/uHk2B via @gatewaypundit
Perhaps the sleeping giant woke up too late and isn’t quite as large as we wish. The left has been chipping away at the core values of the nation and scoop up demographic group after demographic group (latino, black, jews, youth, etc). And he may have the FDR approach advantage re: if you get enough people dependent on the government, you can buy every election. Plus, liberal voters are used to being political active. We’re playing catch up, fighting a political machine that includes the msm, and are less used to being activists. Make very encounter between now and election day about the election. Target people based on a single issue you think might create an opening. Have a handful of talking points. Use the Socratic method. Reach out to every person you know in swing states. Get others involved. There is no time to lose.
This is a racial and gender election, a demographic election, and nobody in the MSM or most conservatives dare to talk about that. But left-wing columnists and bloggers are openly talking about how “the end of white male dominance” will give them a lock on the country.
In 1980, Reagan won 56% of the white vote–and won a landslide.
In 2008, McCain won 57% of the white vote, slightly better than Reagan–yet he lost decisively.
What changed was that the white vote is now a much smaller percentage of the electorate. In 1980, whites were 88% of all voters. In 2008, whites were only 74% of all voters, a 14 point decline. The American electorate is now a lot less white, more black, and a LOT more Hispanic. That was enough to erase Reagan’s winning margin, and then some.
This November, only 73% of voters will be white. Meanwhile, the GOP seems incapable of appealing to large numbers of nonwhite voters. Obama is beating Romney by 2 to 1 among Asians, by 3 to 1 among Hispanics, and (of course) by 20 to 1 among blacks.
That means Romney has to try to win this election with an overwhelming majority of white votes. He has to do better among whites than ANY previous Republican candidate has ever done.
That’s why he may lose.
We may wake up the day after Election Day and find that Romney did well among white voters and extremely well among married white voters–and still lost. Because he’ll get swamped by nonwhite voters and single women.
The two fastest growing voting groups in America are Hispanics and single women. And Obama is clobbering Romney among both.
The demographic future of America is going to look a lot like New York City: An affluent large minority of whites, a polyglot of different ethnicities, and a wealthy and powerful gay community.
Excuse me but your analyis is short. You don’t factor the percentage of non-whites carried by Reagaan and McCain. And I fear your numbrers are flawed too. Given that women voted foe Obams (agreed my numbers don’t isolate whiote women) I simply cannot see how McCain could get 57% of the white vote.
I can’t speak to the accuracy of his numbers but the gist of what he is saying is correct. The white vote is no longer enough to win. Recently, I heard a republican strategist say that “this will be the last time we do this” with regard to running a base election that ramps up the white vote. There simply is not enough of them anymore. They are dying off, and they are not having children to the degree that non whites are.
When Romney loses in November I anticipate a complete restructuring of the republican party. They will have to if they want to remain a viable alternative in our two party system.
Stop wasting bandwidth with your puerile drivel. You remind me of my 65 going in 15 neighbor who complains about all politicians being evil but who refuses to vote.
No, Romney is not giving up Michigan nor Pennsylvania. Romney has made many appearances here in Michigan. I have been to 2 of his events.
His last appearance had a crowd of 8 to 10 thousand in Commerce, MI It took me three hours to clear traffic when leaving.
I haven’t seen one Obama bumper sticker as of yet here. Many of my friends are rank and file members who work for GM and no – they do not support Obama I am proud to say.
I am totally convinced that between the massive dumbing down of our population thanks to radical leftist policies, as well as the fact that almost half of the population is getting some sort of entitlement, and the sickening biased media, that it IS looking bad for Romney…
I also think maybe it is for the good…
Every people get the government it deserves, A re-eelected Obama will certainly crash this nation into a depression that will make the last one look like a school picnic. Maybe this nation needs something like that to finally wise up and grow up. Especially since the filthy big liberal urban areas will get it the worst…
Let Detroit, Chicago, Los Angeles and New York go up in flames again…
Let the occupiers burn down Wall Street, let race riots begin again. Those of us in tyhe red states, armed and loaded, will wait and clear out the rubble and begin again…
Think this is absurd?
Who would have believed a slimy, unqualified, and incompetant Chicago “community organizer,” named Hussein would ever win the presidency?
It CAN happen here…
The fundamentals do not favor Obama at all in OH or PA. Eastern OH over the Marcellus is one of the biggest oil and gas fracking areas in the country. Western PA is the same.
With the exception of downtown (or dauntaun, as we like to say here) Pittsburgh, O is toast. Philly is O’s, but turnout may be low. The north Philly suburbs elected Corbett governor in 2010, and they’ll likely go for the Republican in 2012. Also remember that PA passed a stringent voter ID law. This one isn’t over yet, and I suspect ads will come shortly. If the ads go up in October, it is a sign that the election is over. Why not make Axelrod spend all his cash on VA, OH, and FL right now, then take it to him in undefended PA and MI next month? Strategery, baby. These Boston Romney guys are vicious.
Given that Hamilton county in OH and the exurbs around it will go Republican (its just like IN), and Cleveland will go O’s way (my guess is that the early voter prohibition will be reinstated on appeal), it will all come down to Columbus. However, given that O is going to tank badly in eastern OH due to his stance on coal and fracking, the margin is Columbus will have to be really high for O to win. I just don’t see it.
It is good to get a local perspective. I think the Keys are PA. OH. and Florida.
2 out of 3 and you are the keymaster.
“which means that Romney is weaker than McCain (anyone really want to argue that”
I’ll be your daisy!
Lots of retired Military in Georgia. It’s a nice place to retire to. Mild climate. Touch warm in the summer but that is why Mr. Trane invented Air Conditioning.
Bible Belt.
McCain was a war hero. Mitt isn’t. McCain was Christian. Romney isn’t. I would be surprised if Romney finished as well as McCain.
Cold hard facts are seldom a comfort. They aren’t supposed to be.
Fact #1. Statistics is a science devoted to predicting random events.
Fact #2. Elections involve humans. In ALL aspects of an election.
Fact #3. Humans are a lot of things but NEVER random. It might not look logical to you……. Which has nothing to do with how logical it looks to someone else.
Statistical Analysis does not apply to humans. ALL polls are weighted, which makes them somebodies “best Guess”, which is still a guess.
What is valid are the trend lines of polls done over time. The (t) in the equation improves the results. The trend lines are flat right now, or nearly so, Obama has been level or nearly so for months. Mitt is slowly inching up. Not sure there is enough time for him to catch up and pass.
If I had to bet right now, I would bet on a reversal of 2000, with Romney winning the popular vote and Obama the Electoral college.
I’m also predicting the losing side will get violent. Riots in the urban area if Obama loses, crop burning in the rural area if Obama wins. Farmers ALWAYS eat first. How much wheat can you grow in the gutter next to your apartment building?
Strip away the fancy dressing and America is in the classic, urban/rural civil conflict that all civilizations go through.
Haji can’t shoot.
Romney IS a CHRISTIAN, so shut your pie hole.
I’m thinking 52% to 48% victory for Romney.
There you go thinking again …
There “you people” go lying again –
Where the hell is O B Bullshit/Jaycen One C Blunder?
Jaycen
“You people don’t care…”
August 26, 2012 – 5:55 pm
Cynical Wonder
“What you people…”
August 26, 2012 – 5:01 pm
Cynical Wonder
“You people are clueless …”
Obi-jonKenobi
“Um…”
September 4, 2012 – 1:17 pm
“…and now the chickens are coming home to roost.”
Buuuck, buck, buck, buck.
We need a “wow” to round that out. Anybody?
For several weeks I have been phone banking for Mitt. We call swing voters and visit them at home. Jews are turning for Mitt as are Poles. The recent rally in Commerce Twp was electric. I say Mitt carries the state.
I still think the only thing that’s going to have a major effect on the polls are the debates. Once people all over America see that Romney is a good candidate and much smarter than Obama (let alone more experienced at dealing with economic problems), then you will start to see the polls shift, just as they shifted after the Reagan/Carter debates. Reagan was trailing Carter throughout the election, but after the debates everything started to change and go for Reagan. The same will happen here and after the debates Romney should spend every dime the Replublicans have in every state where we stand even a small chance of winning. That means holding on to a lot of money until October for states like Michigan and Pennsylvania. Romney will win, but it will take the debates to seal the deal.
Most polls are sampling 33% Dems 24% Rep 43% Ind. This does not represent the 2010 results. Rasmussen Party ID polls show it to be 33.3 D 37.6 R 29.3 I
If polls show 47% to 47% with skewed numbers and you apply the correct party ID.
The results would be Romney 50% Obama 42.3.
When ABC/WP, Gallup, NBC/WSJ CBS/NYT are unfavorable to Obama they get harassed by Axelrod & company.
The two important questions are:
HOW MANY PEOPLE WHO VOTED FOR McCAIN WILL VOTE FOR OBAMA?
HOW MANY PEOPLE WHO VOTED FOR OBAMA WILL VOTE FOR ROMNEY OR STAY HOME?
Don’t let the polls discourage us.
Never forget: Carter was trouncing Reagan right up until the polls opened.
12 hours later, he was history.
The people who made the difference don’t answer polls. They don’t even like voting very much. It took a crisis to bring them out.
Sound familiar?
If the race was held today, Romney would win 53% of the vote, Obama 44% and others 3%. Romney will win a minimum of 320 electoral votes. It’s going to be a LANDSLIDE. Doubters write it down and review Nov. 7
TPM shouldn’t be given credibility by mentioning it in anything approaching a serious vein.
Anybody who believes a single word that anybody in the msm or it’s far-left adjuncts is a blind fool
Like obama, even if a report seems to be credible (which TPM never is), the report is only setting up a subsequent lie.
They never stop, and journalistic integrity hasn’t existed in decades.
Nobody on the media left (i.e., nbccbsabccnnmsnbcpbsnprtpm etc etc etc) should even be mentioned by a conservative website in any context other than to mock them.
I do not understand how accurate polling is even possible these days. Personally, I do not even answer the phone unless I recognize the name or number of the caller. On those rare occasions when a pollster gets through, I decline to respond. This is because they always seem to call when I am doing something else.
Now perhaps I am a rare exception. Maybe others are willing to drop whatever they are doing and answer the questions.
By whatever means the pollsters sample, the sample must favor those with more time on their hands. This probably means people who spend a great deal of time watching TV, thus more easily influenced by the media.
With caller ID and with many people only using cell phones I am skeptical of accurate polling.
Yes, I’d have to agree with you there. I do the same thing, as do most people I know. The people who answer are most likely those with a lot of time on their hands or those who do not have caller ID. And then there is some subset of people who have decided to answer just to mess with the polls and give dishonest responses. I’ve toyed with that third option myself, but haven’t done so because I don’t know anything about the organizations doing the polling and would rather just not answer at all.
My husband has done that. He has told them he was an Independent and then given all sorts of strange answers. And he has been a registered Republican since his days as a Young Republican supporting Goldwater. I just don’t care to waste my time with surveys.
The dollar is gone if we reelect Obama.
Pennsylania is 53% Catholic. The Catholic Church’s independence is directly threatened by the Democrats in general and the Obama administration in particular. This is a gun-control magnitude event. Do the math.
I think Ryan will help bring in the Catholic vote all over the Midwest. I really think he will help bigtime in all the states where Santorum did well.
The NRA is gearing up its TV ads in Pennsylvania. Millions of hunters in Pennsylvania and they know the 2nd Amendment is in jeopardy with a reelection of Obama. Couple this with the shutdown of several coal-fired power plants and the continuing attack on coal mines by Obama and the EPA, this gives Romney and Ryan a platform to attack the leftist-agenda being forced upon us by Obama.
I will be giving up on Romney pretty soon if I keep hearing him tell us that he is going to keep some of Obamacare after promising to repeal all of it and start again! I also want to know Romney’s position on alleged assault weapons; he is a banner of guns even if the NRA has given him a B rating. I just do not trust the man any more that I trust the destructive Obama. Romney just frustrates my conservative roots big time.
The Obamacare contraception/abortion/gay hiring mandates on Catholic Religious and healthcare institutions are going to be in 2012 what the Brady Handgun Violence Prevention Act was in 1994.
The Knights of Columbus e-mail lists, Catholic radio and cable EWTN station are all hot with out takes from the Democratic National Convention “Abortion-paloza.”
The full extent of the Catholic Church’s intervention into American politics in 2012 won’t be clear for years, but the negative political impact of it on Obama — and Democrats in general — will be known on the second Wednesday in November 2012.
http://www.nationalreview.com/corner/316400/horsest-rich-lowry