New NBC Iowa Poll: Santorum and Perry Surge as Gingrich’s Support Collapses, Dropping Him Back to 5th
Romney drew the support of 23 percent of likely caucus-goers in Iowa – identified based on interest, chance of voting and past participation – ahead of Paul, at 21 percent.
They are followed by Santorum at 15 percent, Texas Gov. Rick Perry at 14 percent, Gingrich at 13 percent and Minnesota Rep. Michele Bachmann at 6 percent.
Most analyses of GOP presidential primary 2012 have assumed that Romney would not win Iowa. What if that isn’t the case, though? Romney was already picked to be the shoe-in to win New Hampshire. And polls there show that he’s still solid – beating Ron Paul by 15 points.
E.J. Dionne spells out what an Iowa-New Hampshire double victory would of course mean:
The key to wrapping up a nomination quickly has always been an Iowa-New Hampshire one-two punch, and the Granite State, which votes Jan. 10, seems to be a Romney fortress. Romney’s headquarters here on Elm Street was bustling with activity on Tuesday night, as if Iowa didn’t matter. Leaving nothing to chance, Romney made campaign stops that day in Londonderry and Portsmouth before he left for his final Iowa push. If Iowa is Romney’s venture capital, New Hampshire is his nest egg.
Given how rough and tumble the primary season has been so far — with new front runners rising and falling on an almost monthly basis — could the actual voting process yield less tumultuous results and a smooth victory for Romney? Or is this going to be a drawn-out fight going all the way to the convention with Gingrich, Paul, Santorum, and Perry hanging on for months? Which would be better for the country, the party, and the effort to defeat Barack Obama?
Legislatively, Romney is not a flip flopper. He is a pure leftist Progressive. His signature accomplishment as Governor was a socialized medicine program that was the model for the unpopular Obamacare. His flip flopping only pertains to the fact that he sometimes pretends to be conservative, even though he isn’t. For the good of this country, the last thing we need right now is another deceptive politician who will immediately govern from the left when elected.
In contrast, Gingrich and Perry both generally governed as conservatives. Their signature accomplishments were distinctly conservative accomplishments. The crony capitalist Republican establishment has spent tens of millions of dollars sliming everyone who polled ahead of Romney. Has anyone noticed that now Romney is ahead, no one is sliming him? Does anyone wonder why? If the Republican party is to survive, they need to nominate someone who will enact conservative legislation and not nominate Romney, who will go along to get along with the cronies and elites, regardless of the continuing destruction of the middle class.
The candidates will go all the way to the 2012 GOP convention and fight to get the nomination. The primary election is not over yet. Hope that Sarah Palin might run for President after New Year 2012. Romney is not the conservatives’ choice on the GOP ticket. If Romney does get the nominee, the GOP will lose the White House.
Momentum comes from new information. Romney winning New Hampshire wouldn’t tell usvanything we didn’t already know. Northeastern Republicans like northeastern Republicans? Who’da thunk?
Romney winning Iowa could tell us something about his breadth of support, but if he only wins with the ~25% he’s been polling nationally it won’t tell us anything good about his depth of support. I think he would need to pull at least 30% of the Iowa vote to be able to win on his own merits. Anything less and he has to keep the competition fractured to win.
What the early contests will really tell us is which of the not-Romney’s should drop out. If the roughly 65% of the Republican party want a nominee who isn’t Romney and isn’t insane we need to pick one candidate and back them. Yes, they all have flaws, there is not sand has never been such a beast as a perfect candidate, suck it up, pick whichever one doesn’t well in the early votes, and go with it.
Newt is finished, he will not win Iowa, and he certanly won’t win NH! I expect that he’ll stay in until after Florida, then drop out and endorse Perry.
Mitt will not win Iowa, but he will win NH, and probably Florida, before being destroyed on Super Tuesday.
The ”Santorum Surge” is a media invention, he’s not drawing anywhere near the crowds that Perry is drawing. He won’t finish better than 4th or 5th in Iowa, and he’s not viable anywhere else, he doesn’t have the time, organization, or money to compete.
Paul, I think, will win Iowa, then be ignored.
A strong 3rd place finish in Iowa should cement Perry’s position as the anti-Mitt, and conservatives will probably unite behind him when Bachmann, Santorum, and Newt drop out.
I keep hearing about claims of Romney’s conservatism, and I don’t yet believe them. So here’s my litmus test:
If Romney wants to prove he’s really a conservative (and not just some vote-pandering RINO) before the Iowa primary voting starts, he needs to make a clear public statement disavowing his support for federal ethanol subsidies.