Fukushima update: get a grip part 2
At this point, with the new air war in Libya to distract them, it’s possible the legacy media will calm down a bit. Until it does, be careful what you’re listening to — I’m still hearing news readers talking about “frantically pouring water on the exposed reactor core.”
Which they’re not.
For reasonably decent data, look at the IAEA Japan tsunami site, the Nuclear Energy Institute site, and the MIT Department of Nuclear Science and Engineering site.
Now, let’s get down to the status reports.
NEI: Radiation doses at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant continue to decrease. Radiation dose rates at the site boundary of the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant ranged from 1 millirem to 3 millirem per hour on March 18. Eighteen locations were monitored in a 30-kilometer to 60-kilometer radius of the plant. The highest radiation dose rate at any of those locations was 14 millirem per hour.
This is a fairly substantial drop in the dose rate from just a few days ago — which is to be expected, because many of the radionuclides released have short half lives, minutes to hours. 1 millirem means 1000 hours to get 1 rem, 10,000 hours to get to 10 rem, the occupational dose limit in the US for one year — which you couldn’t get, because 10,000 hours is a little over 13 months.
Nature: Nature has also learned that initial CTBTO data suggest that a large meltdown at the Fukushima power plant has not yet occurred, although that assessment may change as more data flow in during the coming days. Lars-Erik De Geer, research director of the Swedish Defence Research Institute in Stockholm, which has access to the CTBTO data and uses it to provide the foreign ministry and other Swedish government departments with analyses, says that the data show high amounts of volatile radioactive isotopes, such as iodine and caesium, as well the noble gas xenon. But so far, the data show no high levels of the less volatile elements such as zirconium and barium that would signal that a large meltdown had taken place — elements that were released during the 1986 reactor explosion in Chernobyl in the Ukraine.
Rather, the data sit well, he says, with a scenario wherein the main release of radioactivity has come from the release of excess pressure in the containment vessels of affected reactors, and the subsequent explosion of the evacuated hydrogen-laden steam within the reactor buildings. The radioactive plume will spread around the hemisphere within weeks, he predicts, but the levels of radioactivity outside Japan will not be dangerous. The levels in Japan itself, outside the immediate vicinity of the Fukushima power plant, “wouldn’t scare me”, he adds.
[Emphasis mine.] Note two things here: the data are not consistent with a major meltdown or release of core material, which would make it more like Chernobyl. Secondly, the data don’t indicate any zirconium, which not only is evidence against a core meltdown, but also suggests there have been no “burning fuel rods”, no “fuel rod fire.”
IAEA (19 March, 1400Z): Radiation levels in major Japanese cities have not changed significantly since yesterday.
The IAEA radiation monitoring team took measurements at seven different locations in Tokyo and in the Kanagawa and Chiba Prefectures. Dose rates were well below those which are dangerous to human health.
The monitoring team are now on their way to Aizu Wakamatsu City, which is 97 km west of the Fukushima nuclear power plant. They have just provided initial measurements from three additional locations.
Measurements made by Japan in a number of locations have shown the presence of radionuclides – ie isotopes such as Iodine-131 and Caesium-137 – on the ground.
This has implications for food and agriculture in affected areas. The IAEA and the UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) are consulting with the Japanese authorities on measures being taken in these areas related to food and agriculture.
The Japanese Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare has announced that radiation levels that exceeded legal limits had been detected in milk produced in the Fukushima area and in certain vegetables in Ibaraki. They have requested the Bureau of Sanitation at the Fukishima Prefectural Office, after conducting an investigation of the relevant information, to take necessary measures, such as identifying the provider of these samples and places where the same lots were distributed and banning sales based on the Food Hygiene Law. (Note: The text originally read out at the briefing was: “The Japanese Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare informed the Agency that radiation levels exceeding legal limits had been detected in milk produced in the Fukushima area and in certain vegetables in Ibaraki. The Ministry ordered protective measures including a ban on sales of these products.” An oral correction was made during the media briefing.)
We now have continuous online access to data from CTBTO radionuclide monitoring stations, which is being evaluated by Agency dosimetry specialists.
As far as the Fukushima Daini nuclear power plant is concerned, there is no record of any incidents or radiation releases at the site. Present elevated radiation levels at the Daini site are attributed by Japan to events at the Daiichi nuclear power plant.
[Emphasis again mine.] Presence of radioactive iodine would indicate some leakage of some sort from the reactors, as iodine is a major fission product from uranium. It’s also significant because one of the medium-scale health effects of Chernobyl was a spike in pediatric thyroid cancer, which the UN WHO associated with iodine release. But this should be taken with a grain of salt as well (iodized salt?) because the amounts are very small.
The major pathway for iodine to enter the body is from food; the biggest reason for the spike in thyroid cancer around Chernobyl was that contaminated milk continued to be sold and consumed.
Also note that they no longer believe the Fukushima Daini plant had any sort of radiation release — the two plants are close together, and they now believe any increases in radiation at Daini were caused by the Daiichi reactors.
It’s hard to imagine, but it’s now been eight days since the Honshu quake and tsunami, and evidence continues to accumulate that while it was certainly a bad industrial accident, the “doomsday” and “worst case” scenarios just haven’t happened. Every day longer makes those scenarios even less likely — the reactors are cooling, the Japanese are getting them supplied with power, and the fuel rods haven’t burned.
Good to hear. So when can we break ground for the new nuke plant on your town?
Tomorrow, far as I care.
Considering that here in PA we don’t live anywhere near the ocean, have no major fault zones, aren’t prone to tornadoes, don’t get hurricanes, I’d be more than happy with one. As a matter of fact, the last time I saw my Congressman, I told him exactly that.
We already get a good percentage of our power from nuclear where I live, which is a good thing.
If the environuts hadn’t shut down the nuclear power industry many years ago, we’d have modern, much safer reactors that can’t possibly melt down under any circumstances. I’d site one of those in my backyard without a second thought.
Instead, as with many other issues lately, we’re letting China take the lead:
China Takes Lead in Race for Clean Nuclear Power:
http://www.wired.com/wiredscience/2011/02/china-thorium-power/
Perhaps after the 2012 elections we’ll have the leadership to move forward boldly again.
if it’s safe design and reduces my electricity bill – anytime.
Well, I’m right now 50 miles downwind of the Palo Verde nuclear powerplant (west of Phoenix).
No worries.
So when can we break ground for that coal-fired plant in YOUR town, Dan? (Or should we just shut off all your power so that you miss MTV and MSNBC?)
You can take your foot and thumb out of your mouth anytime now, okay?
I spent several years living across the Rhein River from a nuclear power plant.
I have no problem with it. There’s a good site about a mile from my house.
Right away please.
I’m with Dan, the first guy who commented on this. Nuclear power is 100% safe–until there’s an accident.
I think everyone who is in favor of nuclear power should go live within 1-3 miles of a nuclear reactor–especially one in a very seismically active zone, so he/she can be absolutely sure he/she won’t lose everything he/she has in an -oops-we-messed-up nuclear accident. You folks go live next to Fukushima. That gives the rest of us time to evacuate to cleaner air and soil.
In the just more than 50 years since the first atom was split, Fukushima is at least the third major nuclear accident–not counting all the mini-accidents we don’t hear about–like the individual cases of cancer caused by radiation absorbed by nuclear workers that is kept oh so quiet. For those not so great with math–those odds are um, how do I say it clearly? They’re bad. Three in 50? C’mon people.
Stop blaming the media for the alleged “hype” and start educating yourselves better.
Nuclear power DOES NOT make your electric bills cheaper, folks! How funny! You really think it’s cheaper to clean up deadly messes and maintain these plants?
IF you are seeing a savings on your nuclear utility bill, which I would LOVE to see proof of, you are bleeding it out of your wallet in your taxes.
Oh, silly me. That’s right. I’d rather pay tax money every year to keep storing dangerous, used nuclear fuel–that we can’t even find a place to adequately house for, well, ever, away from people–than putting up some solar panels. Why would we want peace? I want some uneasiness and drama for my tax money!
For real, people. May I reiterate. Stop blaming the media for trying to do its job and get educated. You will be surprised by what you will find in just one hour of unbiasted, objective reading of what exactly our nuclear industry is doing with our money, our environment and most importantly, our kids’ future. NO mutant grandchildren, here, Please!!
This is the best piece of news so far.
@Dan-Better a nuke plant than a coal mine.
I’d be happy if someone built a Nuke plant where I live. . . . and one that’s even safer than the somewhat antiquated design in Japan that none-the-less survived both a 9.0 earthquake and Tsunami — without anyone getting radiation poisoning!
The Fukushima plant did not survive the quake and tsunami. The workers who are trying to “fix” what was damaged by both events – have been and are continuing to be poisoned with radiation. The radionuclides currently contaminating the site will continue to pollute,the worst of them owing to a half life of ~25,000 years.
And, since this contradicts IAEA, the Japanese government, and the independent measurements of the test ban monitoring organization, you know this how?
From your source IAEAhttp://www.iaea.org/newscenter/news/tsunamiupdate01.html
Under the “2. Radiation Monitoring” heading
“Measurements made by Japan in a number of locations have shown the presence of radionuclides – ie isotopes such as Iodine-131 and Caesium-137 – on the ground.
This has implications for food and agriculture in affected areas. The IAEA and the UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) are consulting with the Japanese authorities on measures being taken in these areas related to food and agriculture.”
Funny that “use arithmetic” doesn’t address any numbers with that; simply declares that badshitium-123 and ickyium-266 have half lives of 25,000 years. No mention of current concentrations, no mention of radiation levels (and these radioisotopes aren’t “radiation” like the press keeps implying).
The two isotopes actually mentioned are I-131 – 8 days, and Cs-137 – 30 years.
Well, he didn’t actually say the isotopes he mentioned have half-lives of 25,000 — which is, no doubt, because anyone could then look it up and find out the real half-lives are about 8 days and 30 years respectively.
But hell, why stop there? There’s certainly some 238U in the neighborhood, in the cores and spent fuel if nothing else, and that has a half-life of four and a half billion years.
Iron has a half life of forever!!!
You do realize that the half-life of NON nuclear toxins such as arsenic is infinite? They never go away? And that, the longer the half-life of a radioactive isotope, the LESS dangerous it is?
Ironically, a coal plant of comparable power output would actually be releasing more radiation into the environment in normal operation than this plant has released in an accident. It would just be diluted with a lot of CO2 and flyash…
brett,
“a coal plant of comparable power output would actually be releasing more radiation into the environment in normal operation than this plant has released in an accident”
this is such an unmitigated bullshit it actually hurts rather then helps your cause.
Actually, there are small amounts of radiaoactive elements imbedded within the coal that is burned in coal-fired power plants and released out the smokestack. These include uranium, thorium and radon. The total amounts released into the atmosphere far exceeds that of any normally operating nuclear power plant.
Sorry, Brett’s right about that. There’s more uranium landfilled per kWH of energy produced from coal than from nuclear. There’s that much U in the coal. A large coal-fired power plant can produce hundreds of pounds of U in its ash daily.
Radioactive waste is a difference question, however.
Gotcha, Poul! (emphasis added)
From that hotbed of conservative thought, the Oak Ridge National Laboratory.
And it took me only a few seconds of scanning a Dogpile search to come up with that article. Next time, verify before spouting off. It saves boucoup embarrassment.
hey, folks trying to gotcha me – did you miss a little “than this plant has released in an accident” detail? that’s the idiocy of his claim. “accident”.
apparently quite a few of your supporters, charlie, have ADD on top of everything else.
during normal operation, of course, coal is more radioactive than nuclear per kW produced. but this bullshitter claimed that it’s also true when the radiation is spewing from cracked reactor cores and overheated spent fuel pools.
The word “spew” should be banned from the internet.
whatever – do you concede that i am right?
Dose rates from unradiated fuel are pretty low.
We haven’t yet established the nature and extent of the damage. It’s going to be weeks or months before we know. And it’s almost certainly significantly different from what you think it is.
#1 Dan
I can’t speak for Mr. Martin, but they are holding initial hearings on a nuclear power plant about an hours drive from where I am typing. My only question is about the availability of sufficient water rights for the cooling [here in the West, water is kinda hard to come by]. If they have the water, I’m in favor of the power plant.
Subotai Bahadur
That is good to hear! It is also in line with what i expected. with a better reactor design and a reinforced reactor containment that was upgraded some time ago by GE there was very little chance of a chernobyl type event. I live 50 miles from 2 reactors and i hardly know they are there and it has less inpact than a giant pile of coal to be burned at conventional power plants with double the output.
I say start stream lining the permit process, and let the tree huggers have a wind farm in there back yard to look at every day wnd the fact is that most of the wind turbines will not even pay for themselves before the are worn out and need rebuilt. If it werent for utilities milking govt grants there wouldnt be any wind farms. truth is you could fill a whole state with wind turbines and it would be hard pressed to produce as much a one newly designed nuclear plant. think about that next time u plug in your electrical appliances.
You can do it today.
Upon reading your comment I could not figure out if it was nasty or stupid. However, seeing that you would build the nuke plant “ON” the town, I realize that my confusion stemmed from it being both.
I’ll take one of those nuclear plants in my town, too.
Preferably not General Electric, but if it’s a modern design, I’ll take that, too.
The safety record of nuclear power has never been the basis for it’s price and acceptance. Rather it’s been driven by the worst-case-scenario all along. This actual case of “unintended acceleration” (ironically by an American GE nuke!) just proves the need to pursue something like LFTRs (liquid fluoride thorium reactors) which have a much more favorable “worst-case-scenario”, but need to be proven.
Anybody notice that even if you buy the extra cancer related deaths over the next 30 years from Chernobyl, all of the nuclear accidents in the past two decades would have killed around 5000 people. All of the tsunamis will have killed around 275000 people. So which one do people chose to go apeshit over?
I still really like the thorium traveling wave scheme. “Pocket” reactors, power a small town. My eskimo cousins in the villages in AK would love one.
There are a whole slew of advanced reactors just beyond our fingertips under the umbrella term of Gen IV, and the Rubbia reactor is one of them:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Generation_IV_reactor
If the US hadn’t gone full-bore Luddite after TMI, we’d be doing many of them by now. Not only are they much intrinsically safer, they also generate orders of magnitude lest radioactive waste.
Thanks, ecoluddites.
Tsunami are “acts of God” and thus unavoidable. Chernobyl was built by humans and the disaster which continues to this day – 100% avoidable.
If I ever want to go fishing for idiots, I’ll know what to use as bait.
Because Chernobyl could have been avoided – I’d go ape$hit over that. Clear enough Chuck?
Or should we go ape$hit over building tsunami.
Vehicular accidents are 100% avoidable by banning all vehicles. Plane crashes are 100% avoidable by banning all air travel. That doesn’t mean that such bans are practical or even prudent.
Farix,
When anyone suggests banning all air travel or all automobile travel in order to save those lives, they’re generally considered fringe kooks. Why aren’t the antinuclear nuts also scorned? Because people think that there’ll always be electricity in the wall socket?
Let them have their way, and eliminate coal and nuclear, and freeze thousands of people to death in the middle of the winter when the wind stop blowing (which it frequently does when it gets extremely cold), and maybe people can put all of this into perspective.
For the foreseeable future, “green” energy is a pipe dream. Nuke is the lowest environmental impact practical base load source out there.
Lefties find our modern technological society anathema to them in many ways. They’d much prefer that we returned to a feudal level of existence… with themselves in the castles, of course, and the non-lefties on the farms as serfs.
Until their electric guitars don’t work anymore…
That’s why I said “many ways.”
I am sure lefties would love it if they could use technology to track where every person on the world was… it would increase their control.
I guess they’d call it a “Tag”. (And no, I am not the author of that book.)
Actually, I chose to live in Dallas TX precisely because I wanted to live away from the coast and hurricane related events.
The American limit is 5 rem, the Japanese limit is 10rem, both are well below any thing that could be even close to harmful.
How safe do you think the workers inside that plant feel right now? How do their friends and family feel? Exposure is Exposure, no arguments about it.
Yeah, Cindy, and how do you suppose the firemen climbing the World Trade Center felt?
These guys have just been through the worst earthquake in Japanese history, a tsunami that probably swept away their homes, they have almost certainly lost family members and pets as well as most all the property they’ve ever had in their lives and they’re still stepping up with yamatogokoro to save their homeland.
And still people in the US media talk about them “fleeing”, and stupid sows like you try to use them to score points.
Go away.
Change your name.
Hope you can someday forgive yourself.
Clear enough?
Charlie, Do you always call people reading your articles “stupid sows” and tell them to “go away and change their names”? Cindy asked to questions and stated a fact. The workers surely understand the danger, as do their families, as do all of us paying attention. They are heroically performing a technically critical and necessary task. But we all wish they didn’t need to be there at all right now, because it IS dangerous!
^ two questions
Only the ones I intend to insult.
Idiot.
“…stupid sows like you…”
Does this site have no rules against ad hominem attacks?
Look it up: that wasn’t an ad hominem attack, that was an insult.
One notices that the frequency of a person’s use of phrases like “No arguments about it” tends to be directly proportional to that person’s inability to *make* an actual argument.
“No arguments, please, because being completely unarmed with facts, I’m sure to lose.”
I live six miles from the Shearon Harris nuclear plant in North Carolina. I’ve been here for twelve years and have no plans to leave.
Progress Energy plans to build two new reactors on the site. I’m in favor of that. The new reactors will be needed to replace the power supplied by eleven coal plants that are being shut down.
How is Cary these days?
I lived in Durham for 11-12 years.
Cindy,
In the nuclear industry there is a saying, “Dose is Dose”. It is taken very seriously and minimized as much as possible.
I see on the MIT site that they were using an unmanned vehicle to spray water into Reactor 3′s fuel pool. They are obviously employing ALARA principles, whatever that is in Japanese.
Charlie, great job on tracking all of this information without going into overload.
I am also happy to see that the tales of the death of the MIT Website have been greatly exaggerated!
AP:
“As for the information site that was run by MIT graduate students (which was much-quoted by Charlie, for example)… well … MIT has apparently taken that site down … it seems that the MIT students were getting too many facts wrong … and were too slow.”
As he is so fond of saying, “Has it been 48 hours already?”
Well, as I was telling Poul earlier, I’m now convinced that AP is a purposeful scoundrel. The MIT NSE site is up, it’s not some rogue site– here’s the whois:
Registrant:
MIT Department of Nuclear Science and Engineering
77 Massachusetts Avenue
Cambridge
Cambridge, Massachusetts 02139
United States
Registered through: Automattic
Domain Name: MITNSE.COM
Created on: 13-Mar-11
Expires on: 13-Mar-12
Last Updated on: 13-Mar-11
Administrative Contact:
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
MIT Department of Nuclear Science and Engineering
77 Massachusetts Avenue
Cambridge
Cambridge, Massachusetts 02139
United States
xxx-xxx-xxxx
Technical Contact:
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
MIT Department of Nuclear Science and Engineering
77 Massachusetts Avenue
Cambridge
Cambridge, Massachusetts 02139
United States
xxx-xxx-xxxx
Domain servers in listed order:
NS1.WORDPRESS.COM
NS2.WORDPRESS.COM
… and it’s linked and mentioned on the MIT NSE department home page.
You know, the PJM management has already been urging me to “out” AP. Like everyone else, my ethics are somewhat situational. The more AP convinces me, with lies, spam and disinformation, that he really is a purposeful scoundrel, the closer I come to agreeing with them.
Can you at least confirm or deny that “UseAritmetic” is actually “A physicist” with a different sock on his/her/its hand? The posting styles seem too similar to be a coincidence.
Interesting idea, but it doesn’t work out. Another academic address, different state.
Oh, well… was worth checking out anyway.
This is classic! Are you a lefty that wants to track me? … Wasn’t this your previous post? (before – you asked for help tracking me!)
ConservativeWanderer,”I am sure lefties would love it if they could use technology to track where every person on the world was… it would increase their control.”
and as for your other statement, “They’d much prefer that we returned to a feudal level of existence… with themselves in the castles, of course, and the non-lefties on the farms as serfs.”
You can have the castle. I work in agriculture, I am the “non-lefty on the farm serf,” and thus more concerned with the radionuclides and persistent pollutants, than with acute radiation poisoning (which we seem to be sophisticated enough to avoid). Japan doesn’t have any arable land to spare. With global food prices already extremely high this year, agricultural contamination from Fukishima adds insult to injury. This plant,if they can stabilize it, will be decommissioned (a gigantic loss of investment, infrastructure, and critically needed power, and space) and the surrounding agricultural land will be out of commission indefinitely! But these long lived pollutants will continue to be active as they work their way into the food chain, long after humans have isolated themselves from the immediate threat.
Touched a nerve, I seem to have.
the mit site is real, i even contacted them, got an email, replied, they changed the article. if AP thinks it’s fake, he’s out of his mind. do you have a link to his post saying so? I cannot anymore make myself scan all the topics.
anyway, charlie, this post is a bunch of inconsequential drek. you are so out of your depth you don’t know what’s important and what’s not, let alone at which temperature fine zirconium powder will self ignite.
but do not despair! I am for the rescue, this time with some really good news of actual consequence:
http://english.kyodonews.jp/news/2011/03/79712.html
“Japanese authorities shot water into a spent-fuel pool of the reactor No. 4 of the crippled Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant Sunday for the first time since the reactor’s cooling system failed following last week’s powerful earthquake…The Ground Self-Defense Force sprayed about 80 tons of water from a vehicle into the pool for nearly one hour until 9:30 a.m., according to the Defense Ministry.”
of course, it’s only 80 tons out of needed 1000+, but that’s a good start.
everything else is unchanged:
IAEA chief Yukiya Amano… said, upon his return to Vienna from a trip to Japan, ”I hope that safety, stability will be recovered as soon as possible…But I still don’t think it is time to say that I think they are going in a good direction or not”
goodnight.
Oh, Poul, if you’re going to be a fool, don’t be a transparent fool at least. Your big news from Sunday morning in Tokyo is that the GSDF sprayed 80 tonnes of water into the Unit 4 pool after “the Tokyo Fire Department shot water into a spent-fuel storage pool of the No. 3 reactor in an overnight operation that lasted more than 13 hours until 3:40 a.m.”
The NEI article I linked said:
Your big scoop is that they continued to do during the day Sunday what they had announced they would do shortly before 9AM Sunday.
Your “everything else is unchanged” is that the gate dose rate has dropped by two or three orders of magnitude.
Seriously, can’t you do better than that?
poor charlie. your blinders are so tight you don’t even understand the difference between “planned to do” and “succeeded in doing”. they’ve been planning to pour water in #4 pool all along, but could not. #4 pool is by far the most dangerous spot in the whole factory.
instead, what do you care about? minutae radiation measures that fluctuates with wind, amount of water poured into pool, humidity, position relative to heaps of rubble, etc. etc.?
Nonsense. I just don’t think that an update that things went as planned between the time the NEI update was posted and the time Kyodo published their piece was a major bit of news.
this is why i consider you a halfwit. this is one of the very few major efforts that went as planned in the whole disaster.
That’s a rather broad assertion, poul. Anything to back it up? Particularly since it appears the initial shut-down after the earthquake went well. If the tsunami had not been above the design limits, I doubt anyone outside of Japan would have ever heard of Fukushima.
okay, you think I’m a half-wit because I didn’t think your “scoop” was particularly exciting. I can relate to that, I’ve been disappointed by editors reactions to things I thought were exciting in the past.
General Info:
80 tons of water is about 20,000 gallons.
1000 tons of water is about 240,000 gallons of water. That’s almost a quarter million gallons of water.
240 gallons of water in a ton.
This event is “guesstimated” to be somewhere between Chernobyl and Three Mile Island here in the US.
Chernobyl has beed the most severe event in the history of nuclear accidents.In 2005, the World Health Organization (in conjunction with the U.N. and the International Atomic Energy Agency) published a report on the actual and expected death toll from Chernobyl.
Briefly, they found less than 50 deaths by 2005 directly attributed to the accident. Most were 1st responders, many sucumbing within months, with a few as late as 2004.
They anticipated a total of 4,000 souls would die from direct results of Chrenobyl in their lifetimes, but as of 2005. Less than 50.
http://www.who.int/mediacentre/news/releases/2005/pr38/en/index.html
Charlie,
A friend of mine in Tokyo had to relocate because he said a facility that had a lot of chemicals in it (or was a chemical plant of some kind) went up in flames. He left his neighborhood and Tokyo not because of radiation fears, but because he said the smoke in his home smelled horrible, his wife was pregnant too — emphasis on the *was* pregnant. She had the baby as soon as they got to Osaka. So far, so good.
I think that Fukushima is big and dramatic, but that a lot of the human health consequences will come from other smaller fires/leaks. But I doubt they’ll ever really be covered.
I believe that there was a big refinery fire close in to Tokyo. I’d be a lot more worried about that if I were there. Gasoline has benzene and similar compounds in it, and black soot is bad stuff all around.
thought about how much the world is in a panic over the low doses to date (thank goodness, knock on wood) and decided that an entire blog should be posted on the hype and hysteria generated by much of the news today…
First post: http://herbegerenews.wordpress.com/2011/03/20/sunday-20-march-2011/
World News: In shocking news today the general public discover radiation can be deadly if exposed to in high amounts and much of our food supply is already highly radioactive.
B
They are over hyping the buzz words like ‘meltdown’
That said in many ways the situation is much worse than reported.
When the fuel gets too hot (about 1400F) water (H20) interacts with the zirconium cladding to produce hydrogen (H2) and zirconium oxide. (This a violent reaction and IS the ‘fires’ that have occurred in fuel pools) Because enough hydrogen has been produced to cause explosions we KNOW that the clad has been severely damaged. This alone releases all of the gaseous fission products (highly radioactive) from the core. It is probable that core geometry has changed (fuel pellets have fallen into the cooling channels) that will result in localized melting and the release of the heavier fission products like strontium without the full ‘meltdown’ of the core made popular in comic books and movies.
Radiation levels of 14 millirem at distance 30 – 60 km from the plant IS frightening. While the dose rate itself is not high. It is ALL coming from fallout or gaseous release. (at 30 km there is no direct radiation from the reactor themselves) This means there is SIGNIFICANT contamination of the surrounding area. You can stand there for days and the direct radiation will have little effect but what you get on you skin and clothes could severely damage you.Get it on your hands and rub your mouth or eat or drink something and now the radioactive material is inside you. THAT is a real problem.
At minimum we can expect at least a Chernobyl like dead zone for decades. The only question is how much of the local area will be affected. Japan has a very high population density. Much land and many building are now total write offs.
All that said, there will be very few deaths caused by this, excluding the people working in the plant, and little long term health effects as long they evacuate the people and they stop food and everything else from leaving the affected area.
The radiation effects outside the local area are essentially nothing.
The economic effects are going to be much worse than what is being covered in the press. Wall street is expecting a lot of money to be spent ‘rebuilding’. Part of it will never be rebuilt and the power shortages will limit production for the country for a long time.
Should reactors be shutdown here? Maybe – BUT! Shutdown too many, too fast, and the power shortages hear will be worse than Japan. Our grid will NOT let us transfer significant power from .. say to Texas to California. Southern California uses nuclear power for most of their electricity. Shutdown too many reactors in California and and you shutdown California. The same applies to Illinois and new York.
Good Will.
(I held a senior reactor operators at a US reactor and spent 20 years training reactor plant operators and engineers. Primary subjects: emergency procedures and reactor accidents)
Here we go again…
Something I’ve complained about repeatedly now is that there’s what I’ve been calling the “bimodal straw man” — that there are only two possible ways to evaluate this, either as an apocalyptic catastrophe, or as saying everything is all hunky-dory. Here’s an excellent counter-example, someone who is actually making realistic statements.
That said, there are a couple of points where I think the evidence right now isn’t as strong as James does. First one is kind of a quibble, but since it’s been one of Poul’s red herrings I think it’s worth mentioning: there is a difference between a hydrogen fire along with a water-zirconium reaction, and a zirconium fire.
Here’s a video of someone putting a torch to a chunk of this zirconium cladding: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x__2yWx9zGY
Two things to note: the tube doesn’t burn — which is to say, there is no self-sustaining reaction producing lots of heat which (like an aluminum or magnesium fire) would be pretty spectacular — and afterward the tubing has clearly oxidized.
Now, it’s certainly possible to get zirconium to catch fire, and that would be bad, but it’s difficult with solid bulk zirconium just like with solid bulk aluminum — or magnesium, for that matter.
The second point where I still don’t think the evidence supports a zirconium fire is that they’re not detecting zirconium outside the area: you pretty much can’t have a zirconium fire without zirconium smoke. On the other hand, iodine’s boiling point is only about 185°C, and cesium’s only something like 650°C, so they would be much more easily spread about.
I did not say there is burning zirconium. It is not a metal fire – like with magnesium. It is exothermic chemical reaction. (It would NOT occur without water) The result is Hydrogen (H2) and zirconium oxide (rust) the zirconium oxide does not burn. There is no Zirconium ‘smoke’. The chemical reaction does give off heat and light and occurs very rapidly. The resultant H2 is flammable in air at about 4% concentration and explosive at about 8%.
8% hydrogen in building as big as those is a huge amount of hydrogen. That is what caused the explosions. The ‘fire’ reported in or near the spent fuel pool was either the zirconium-water reaction or small hydrogen fires (4% H2)
Or the fire was just a mundane fire. Perhaps some electrical insulation, or who-knows-what that normally wouldn’t be there, but they just had an earthquake and tsunami.
WTF are you blithering about? That has to be the stupidest thing anybody has said on any of these threads about this. And that takes work.
Now, children, play nice — this guy’s neither a scoundrel nor a fool, and now that we’ve established he wasn’t talking about an actual zirconium metal fire, I agree with everything he’s saying down to having a different intuition about decay rates. Which could easily be wrong.
No, he’s right — the reaction he’s proposing wouldn’t produce zirconium oxide smoke, and does account for the hydrogen explosions in that outer shed thing.
Here’s the problem. He’s claiming that Zr is dissociating H2O. Now how exactly does that work? Why doesn’t that happen normally? You can’t have that both ways; either the water is corroding the Zr, in which case it would have happened years ago, or it’s the air that’s attacking the Zr directly, in which case (if it really did happen) you’d get an aerosol of ZrO2 smoke. Those are your choices. And if the rods were exposed to the atmosphere, they’d heat up and drive the moisture off the surface in a hurry, so water can’t be catalyzing a cold fire.
Oy vey.
Snork, there are some good sources on this about. At low temperatures, Zr passivates a little like Al does, but as higher temps — as he says, 1400°F or 760°C — the Zr binds more tightly to O than O does to H and the O jumps ship, leaving free hydrogen.
Here, MIT NSE has a longer explanation.
But how does that happen when there’s no H2O?
That may happen inside the reactor vessel under steam pressure. But we’re talking about the pools here. Or at least I thought that was the point. If it happens in the vessel, the “smoke” issue is moot.
Who’s on first?
Okay, I’m not getting the point here. There’s certainly H2O in the pools, or at least was. If they boiled completely dry there’d still be some just in the air.
There needs to be a significant partial pressure of water vapor for that to happen. You’re not going to get that over a pool.
Okay, then I misunderstood what you meant. Yes, I do think the zirconium and water to zirconium oxide and hydrogen reaction is going on, and accounts for the hydrogen that led to the explosions in the outer building. It doesn’t sound like that happened inside the primary containment, with the possible exception of the torus in Unit 2.
At least right now, it doesn’t sound like there’s anything much long-lived being released, especially given how rapidly dose-rates have dropped at the plant gates, so there may not be a long-term “dead zone”. It’s worth remembering that Chernobyl released ten tonnes of core in a very hot fire that took the smoke column to something like 40,000 feet.
I don’t think there’s any question that it’s an economic disaster, sadly in the middle of a sea of economic disasters.
AND, Chernobyl was loaded with graphite which burned like a bonfire.
This reaction can be obtained in a reactor vessel because that is the place you can have steam at 1400C.
Meanwhile the Hydrogen gets released to the containment when you open SRVs and dump reactor steam to the suppression poole.
The spent fuel pools will not support steam at 1400C, or at 140C. And thus will not support a “Zirconium Fire”
Now we’re getting somewhere. Why on earth would they vent into the pool, if it’s possible to have H2 in the gas? Is this just a 1960′s era design defect?
Snork:
SRVs are used to dump high energy steam to the pool and remove heat from the reactor. Steam contains more heat than water, so steam is dumped because it gets more bang per pound. Defense in depth means keeping the fuel in the reactor first, and only if that is not possible, keeping it in containment.
Meanwhile, there are Hydrogen ignitors in containment to burn off the Hydrogen. If power is available.
Like I said, bad design idea from the ’60s. Maybe a better idea is a separate deep well outside the building, huh? Normally, H2 rises pretty fast, and won’t hang around long enough to cause a problem. Refineries usually vent it without flaring it.
this is nuclear reactor, not a refinery. you cannot just went out H2, it will carry with it radioactive noble gases. to prevent that, reactor exhaust is fed into activated charcoal, which holds the noble gases long enough for them for most of the radioactive decay to happen. problem is, H2 would “poison” the activated charcoal. so it’s burned out – “oxidized”, actually, in a controlled reaction on a catalyst, charlie – and water is dropped before gases go into charcoal filters.
nothing is ever simple with nuclear power.
mark, I don’t think you’re thinking about the kinetics here. If you have a fuel rod (or for that matter, a random piece of hot iron) at 1400F and dunk it in water, at least right at the surface you will have 1400°F steam in contact with the surface.It’ll also take a lot of heat away in the phase change, but at least temporarily it’ll be the right environment for this zirconium-water reaction.
James:
Help me out here. Speaking of Zirc oxidation.
I going with you cannot have steam in the presence 1400C/F fuel in the spent fuel pool, because it is atmospheric. Unless you add water to it, but wouldn’t that brittle fracture the fuel pins releasing gas. But this doesn’t explain I with the short half life.
Meanwhile in the reactor, wouldn’t SRVs lift long before temps got that high? Would PCT get that high due to decay heat?
Isn’t the most likely source of the fission product gases some broken pins, and the most likely source of Hydrogen radiological decomposition of water?
She bungled the part about what a moderator does, but…
Zr is similar to Ti, and I have considerable experience with Ti. It can burn, but it needs a lot of oxygen. Ti is notorious for burning with Cl2, and you have to weld it under a N2 blanket because it will oxidize with an electric arc, but I’ve never seen it burst into flames under an air atmosphere.
It might have been a better demonstration if they tried to draw an electric arc on the Zr tube, though. It’s uncertain what the O2 concentration was inside that flame. If that was oxy-acetylene, it might have been even higher than 21%.
“Now, it’s certainly possible to get zirconium to catch fire, and that would be bad, but it’s difficult with solid bulk zirconium” – oh, i see you finally hit the handbooks. glad we’re in agreement now. if you were a man, you would also apologize.
“The second point where I still don’t think the evidence supports a zirconium fire is that they’re not detecting zirconium outside the area” – nobody said there is already zirconium fire. there was a *fear* that zirconium fire will start if the fuel is not cooled. i am surprised you didn’t understand it after my repeated explanations. oh, wait – i am not. but i am glad we are in agreement again.
but you really descended to the depths of truther stupidity here:
“Here’s a video of someone putting a torch to a chunk of this zirconium cladding: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x__2yWx9zGY”
this is as dumb as the (in)famous video 9/11 truthers spread a while ago where they “prove” that buildings couldn’t melt from fire. remember that one? congatulations, this site reached a new low.
quite sad, really, and absolutely unnecessary, given that you concede the point in the next sentence.
What, specifically, are you objecting to in the video? I see one thing that I’m not completely comfortable with, but I don’t think it’s a smoking gun. Or rod, if you will.
Poul, is it as dumb as confounding oxidation and burning?
Really, you’re just trying to cover up at this point, a little like a cat on a linoleum floor.
(BTW, you did notice that James, in his reply, makes it clear he’s not talking about a bulk zirconium fire — “I did not say there is burning zirconium. It is not a metal fire – like with magnesium.”)
charlie, you are projecting. once again, burning in oxygen is, by definition, a rapid exothermic oxidation – agree? yes or no, enough with sleazy evasiveness.
and BTW, i didn’t say there’s burning zirconium either – this may come later if the rods heat up more.
the danger of the reaction with water is that released hydrogen, besides burning and exploding, also diffuses into zirconium, and makes it brittle and blistery. the resulting cracked sponge is consequently much easier to ignite (later, when water evaporated and rods are surrounded by air) than solid zirconium alloy surface.
another tidbit for you – fine zirconium powder ignites at room temperature, and almost impossible to extinguish.
Oh, poul, yes you did say the zirconium was burning; you defended the idea at some length, with videos.
Have ssome self-respect.
charlie, now you are opently slandering me.
prove it or retract it.
but we already know that you will do neither.
James Torguson:
“Radiation levels of 14 millirem at distance 30 – 60 km from the plant IS frightening. While the dose rate itself is not high.”
What do you suppose the direct source of this radiation is, Mr. SRO? And where did it come from?
Once again, I think you’ve been over-conditioned by Poul and AP. He’s right, adding 14 mrem/hr to the background is a little frightening — what’s making it? If it’s something short-lived, like iodine, it’s one thing. If it were, oh, cobalt-60 (it’s not!) it would be a lot more troublesome. A constant 14 mrem/hr for a year is 122 rem, which is a no-joke unhealthy dose.
You are correct, Charlie. Sorry James.
Good thing SROs are a thick skinned lot.
My point was that the radiation is temporary. Not that I wouldn’t be pissed if dose rates in my back yard were that high.
what’s important here is the distance, as me and him tried to explain to you repeatedly. what do we have to do so you understand, draw pictures? invite a mime to illustrate it with interpretive dance? force you repeat every word after us?
seriously, it’s exasperating.
Actually, I’d love you to draw me a picture — that cat on your site was particularly nice.
This dose is coming from airborne gaseous fission products that have settled 20 miles from the plant. They are not from “Zirconium Fire” in the spent fuel pool, they are from a nuclear reactor being vented at pressure to the suppression pool. And then vented from the containment manually.
Distance.
Airborne Gas.
Distance is significant, in point/line/plane radiation equations.
Exactly how is distance relevant?
stop weaseling out, charlie, and maybe i will.
reply to ALL! as in ALL! (not the last post on thread)
SCR__ IT. Believe what you want….
Zirconium metal fire and short half life???
Did you ever consider what the product of short life elements like Iodine just might be radioactive ..Iodine decays to Xenon which decays to …)
Like I said, SR__W IT!
You folks obviously know more than I do.
But, Thanks to all. I now realize that I should have posted to the Democratic Underground.
It is always valuable to learn something.
Remember to thank your teachers!
Good will!
James, cool down, just ignore the idiots and keep up the good work.
i knew something was bugging me…I131 beta-decays into Xe131, which is stable and doesn’t decay into anything.
It’s airborne. Unless a majority of readings are trending, it’s probably clouds in your coffee. Rain and snow cleaning the atomosphere, etc. Isn’t there a good measure of release at the site?
@Snork. Yes there was an oil refinery or something in Chiba about 40 minutes away from Tokyo which was one of the dramatic images seen on the news on the first day of the earthquake. The flames finally died down a couple days ago though the fire did not stay as large as the first two days since most of the fuel had burnt up.
reason #7464645636363 why i love america: here’s the radiation measurements along the west coast:
http://www.epa.gov/japan2011/rert/radnet-data.html
yup. “Typical fluctuations.” Anything from Fukushima is in the noise on these instruments.
Good site, Poul, thanks.
and this is how it will continue unless something goes significantly worse.
But it’s enough to make the proggies wet their pants.
if they don’t manage to cool down pool 4, there will be enough radiation for everyone.
the hydrogen suggests the rods in reactor and/or pools heated upwards of 1400F and that’s in contact with water, the (parts of) rods not in contact with water presumably got a lot hotter.
presume most of the hydrogen drifted off and only some (small) part was responsible for explosions.
so what if the entire plant area is 1 rem/hour? that’s a question. they could probably clean and pave it down to a tenth of that, but would that be good enough to keep the area in production? and is there enough still working in reactors 1-4 to bother with?
well, perhaps we will find out.
I’m pretty certain that 1-3 are done for. Whether they’re buried on site or hauled of to Siberia, they’re not every going to run again. 5 and 6 will run again. The difficult one will be 4. Depending on just how bad the pool was damaged, it may not be possible to rebuild the plant. Only time will tell.
I have a pretty good hunch that whatever survives will be built better, even though another big quake in the area is extremely unlikely for the remainder of the life of the plant.
50 years from now, there’ll be a park and a monument on the site.
Part of the thing here is that it’s not going to stay at 1 mrem an hour. A lot of the hottest stuff is (necessarily) going to have a short half-life. But I think it’s pretty certain that 1-3 won’t come back and I’d be surprised at 4. Units 5 and 6 might well.
oops – millirem.
Purple Dick’d Journalists should be held accountable.
Where did AP sneak off to, anyway?
Just as another point of comparison, the Union Carbide pesticide plant in Bhopal, India released about 41 metric tons of methyl isocyanate (MIC) on December 3, 1984. The gas spread slowly southward from the plant site during the early morning hours with very stable weather conditions. Of the city’s population of 900,000, over 200,000 people were exposed to MIC-tainted air. Documented death counts were listed at 3,787. Estimates of the number of undocumented deaths are over 10,000.
The Accident in Bhopal: Observations 20 Years Later (http://www.aiche.org/uploadedFiles/CCPS/About/Bhopal20YearsLater.pdf)
Notice there’s no more Union Carbide Corporation? That one didn’t go unpunished.
Actually, Union Carbide continued in business for another 15 years or so, until it was acquired by Dow Chemical.
Point being that we didn’t freak out and close down every chemical plant in response to the Bhopal disaster.
The remnant was bought up by Dow, after being slowly dismantled over that period. Little pieces of UC are now owned by everybody from Rhone Poulenc to Linde. The Institute, WV plant, which was Bhopal’s sister, became a white elephant, and Dow eventually took that turkey as part of the deal. RP bought the rest of the Institute plant sometime in the ’80s, but made sure they didn’t get stuck with that.
In hindsight, essentially 100% of contemporary reporting on Three Mile Island was wrong and alarmist. The same is true today, but now we have people getting out real facts and data. Like you. Thank you.
Thanks.
I’ve been away camping for two day … while Charlie’s been busy freely spreading calumny like “stupid sow.”
Charlie’s subsequent posts make it clear that his abuse was deliberate, and that he regards such abuse as acceptable.
So I have a question: it is common and accepted practice for Tatler’s editors to engage in personal abuse? Or is this a rare aberration?
I’m asking everyone *except* Charlie.
They call ‘em like the see ‘em.
You were out camping while what you claim is a world-shaking disaster is happening? Why haven’t you flown to Japan to add your brilliance to their efforts?!
The only personal abuse I’ve seen is your buddy Poul, going off half-cocked after I pointed out that the NRC thinks your buddy Alvarez is a lightweight.
He tried repeated denials, but when that didn’t work he just started calling me, then everyone else, stupid.
Funny, when your ignorance is pointed out, it’s back to the rules. Because when somebody thinks you are wrong, it is an ad hominem attack.
It couldn’t possibly be that you are overreacting, but that was your whole purpose for being here.
you are deluded. the only claim that you made was that chemical reactions proceed differently during a terrorist attack.
Poul, look up “straw man’, there’s a good boy. It takes a certain amount of sophistication to use one really well, and you’re not managing.
this is *exactly* what he said, charlie. perhaps he’s your sock puppet? the clarity of his thinking is definitely something i’d expect from you as well…
It’s not about the chemistry, it’s about the logistics. It’s a lot easier to stabilize the situation when you don’t have Mohammad with an AK-47 standing in the way.
but we are discussing chemistry, not logistics.
Actually, it’s more common for the editors to do thinks like change links of annoying commenters without notice. You might want to check some of yours.
And the term of art is “contributor”. I used to be an editor but I’m not now.
well, charlie takes it stoically when commenters insult him, so it’s only fair if he is allowed to insult commenters. if it was one-sided, then i’d have a problem.
I have now checked today’s daily report Japan Atomic Industrial Forum.
To says ago, nineteen critical systems were judged by the JAIF to as having status< "SEVERE-(NEED IMMEDIATE ACTION)".
The sobering news: In the last 48 hours, none improved.
The enouraging news: In the last 48 hours, no new “SEVERE-(NEED IMMEDIATE ACTION)” items have been identified.
It was very disappointing that the AC power (electric) reactor cooling systems have not been brought back on-line — two days ago there was great hope these power-restoration efforts would rapidly succeed.
Thankfully, winds have remained largely offshore. This has been the sole “lucky break” in this accident … pray that it continues.
SOURCE: http://www.jaif.or.jp/english/
The disappointment is that things don’t seem to be getting better as quickly as expected, but I don’t see any new developments there to be alarmed about. They’re just going sideways when we were expecting improvement by now. That, and some bookkeeping issues.
Snork, do you see any *OLD* developments to be alarmed about … nineteen such developments (to be precise)?
All nineteen failures are labeled in bright red … all nineteen failures are tagged as “SEVERE-(NEED IMMEDIATE ACTION)” …
… but the number of failures in the “SEVERE” category hasn’t diminished.
Ain’t it cause for substantial concern that (according to the JAIF) these systems failures ainn’t getting fixed?
Purely on the facts … ain’t the above entirely correct?
And why is it that moderators abuse posters on this forum … purely for posting the facts?
My own opinion is … America’s Founders would not approve.
Because the Founders commonly spoke inconvenient truths.
SOURCE: http://www.jaif.or.jp/english/
Most of the “severe” items aren’t going to be “fixed”, ever. It’s class 5 incident, and that’s forever. The reactor cores have been damaged, and that’s forever. The exploded buildings may or may not ever be rebuilt (my guess is #4 will, #1-3 won’t). So the sheet will never be all green. Ever. That doesn’t imply instability or imminent harm.
At this point, getting AC power and circulation is the big item, and otherwise stabilizing pools 3 and 4 is the other big items. Nothing else will be done until they develop and execute a final plan for stabilization.
Snork, the above is a well-reasoned, fact-driven, respectfully expressed post.
Well done … and much appreciated … I say that sincerely … the more such posts, the better IMHO … `cuz that’s how American-style democracy works.
I think I heard on NHK this afternoon that they’re not going to rebuild any of the units. Maybe too much damage from all the seawater.
while they are going sideways, it’s important to remember the time factor. the time is on their side concerning the reactors, and against them concerning pools.
More censorship:
Hmmm … wasn’t it Tom Jefferson who said the following?
It appears that neither TEPCO, nor Japan’s Government, not the editors of Tatler, approve much of Tom Jefferson’s values.
Come to think of it, through many centuries, it has always been true that far-left, far-right, dictatorial, oligarchical, and dogmatically religious governments … have distrusted too much public knowledge.
As for mathematicians, scientists, and engineers … well … we think public information is a public good.
Think about it.
SOURCE: Small Unmanned Aerial Systems (SUAS) News
http://www.suasnews.com/2011/03/4703/japan-reluctant-to-disclose-footage-of-power-plant-taken-by-u-s-drone/
Classification is not censorship.
And given your behavior, I don’t think it matters to you what they release or don’t; you’ll assume they’re covering up the Apocalypse.
Did anyone else notice this in the NEI update as of 10 a.m. EDT Sunday:
“The ministry also reported conducting surface temperature measurements of reactors 1 through 4 from a helicopter to evaluate the effect of the water discharge operations. The surface temperature of each unit is below 100 degrees Celsius.”
Hmmm … so Japan’s Ministry is continuing to act its own reporter.
This is bad news … because no government in recorded history has ever been able to resist the temptation to lie as needed to hide bad news.
That’s the common-sense reason why the Founders were so protective of a Free Press and Free Speech.
URL:
And have somehow convinced everyone, including U Cal Berkeley, MIT (by the way, that is an offical site and it hasn’t been brought down) and the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Organization to co-operate.
But Alex Jones says they’re fudging the data:
http://www.prisonplanet.com/reports-of-harmless-radiation-reaching-california-are-a-whitewash.html
In other news, Alex Jones says there’s an army or robots getting ready to storm the plant:
http://www.prisonplanet.com/army-of-robots-that-climb-walls-sent-in-to-prevent-disaster-at-nuclear-plant.html
Snork, Alex Jones says a lot of things. He also says the US blew up the WTC, no?
Google “Alex Jones is a consummate ass”.
That was kind of my point. When you find Alex Jones agreeing with you, it’s probably a good idea to reconsider your position. Or at least reexamine it.
snork, do you like puppies? you know who esle liked puppies? adolf hitler, that’s who.
see the folly of this logic yet?
Poul gets the Godwin award for the thread. Congrats, that took creativity to work ol’ ‘Dolf into this.
that’s anti-godwin, not godwin. you’re not up on the meme.
“Ministry of Defense announced that the Self-Defense Force helicopter measured the surface temperatures of Fukushima Daiichi from the air and found that the temperature of each units are below 100 degrees C. Unit 1:58 degrees C; Unit 2: 35 degrees C; Unit 3: 62 degrees C; Unit 4: 42 degrees C; Unit 5: 24 degrees C; Unit 6: 25 degrees C. (as of the afternoon on March 20)”
question: how can they measure temperature of water surface in unit 4? earlier they said that holes in the roof do not coincide with location of the pool, which was the reason why they couldn’t start spraying it with water…
The Japanese Ministry of Defense is deliberately falsifying data.
At least that which that does not fit your narrative.
Conspiracy?
Maybe you just don’t understand what they said. You do that a lot. Any more updates on the “fail-safe” systems “failing”?
Oops. Strike the failsafe failure.
But let me add, did they claim to have measured a pool temperature?
::plonk::
There must be a hole. Weren’t you the one who posted that the SDF finally sprayed water into #4′s pool?
it’s unclear whether they’re spraying it into pool or just into general vicinity. it is also unclear why did they stop short of 100 tons of water…
With the right kind of infrared imaging equipment, they should be able to get pretty accurate pictures of temperature, including any local hot spots. This is pretty straightforward stuff.
However, the reactors themselves are probably insulated. You don’t know how to interpret those temperature numbers without knowing exactly what you’re looking at. The surface temperature of the insulation doesn’t tell you much about what’s going on inside. If they’re lucky, some of the insulation (probably asbestos) was blown off in the explosions, so there’s some bare metal to look at.
The pool numbers are probably pretty good.
NHK just reported that the temps were taken by the SDF. Building 3 was 42 degrees (C).
Still high levels of radiation somewhere near Reactor 3 (2500-3000 microsieverts). So TEPCO is planning to go around and through Reactor 4 to hook up power.
Apparently lots of components damaged by seawater in Buildings 1 & 2. That’s what’s slowing down restoration of power. This is all from the NHK noon (Japan time) broadcast.
poul, just read your post. The NHK translation might have been a little rough. I was wondering why they didn’t give the temp for Unit 4 … must have been a little mix-up in the numbers for #3 and #4.
It’s not clear what these temperatures mean. In some cases you have reactor issues, and in other cases they have pool issues. My guess is that they took an infrared picture of each unit, and the published temperature is the hottest pixel, whatever than may be. And if the roof is in the way of something really hot, it’s going to miss that.
But it’s also possible that they have a few functioning thermocouples too, especially in 5 and 6.
yeah, every time they say “mSv” and don’t add “per hour”, i want to strangle somebody…
Yeah, I spent all day Sunday writing about that, trying to explain these measurements.
Science Ministry’s environmental radiation reports available here: http://www.mext.go.jp/english/radioactivity_level/detail/1303962.htm
James Torguson,
Hey pal, as a licensed SRO you have a obligation to protect the public. Could part of that be protecting them from misinformation about Nuclear Power?
You weighed in, now you have a duty to set the record straight. Two questions, in your opinion:
What most likely caused the offsite release?
What is going on in spent fuel pool #4?
Listen, I’ve fielded most of the Cold Water Accident, nuclear explosion, dose rate vs. dose stuff. I’ve straightened out the twisting of standard terms and explained the use of procedures and the eplan. I’ve been called ignorant and worse for my efforts.
AP thinks the governments lying to him, and poul thinks the NRC is run by fools. Good luck, my SRPD just went off scale high.
I’m turning this mess over to you.
bad news: the pressure in #3 is rising, but they are hesitant to depressurise it due to isotope content:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/japan/8393805/Japan-nuclear-crisis-Fukushima-50-face-new-setback.html
It occurred in a holding vessel around reactor three at the stricken Fukushima Daiichi plant, and forced engineers to consider releasing more radioactive material into the atmosphere. A similar tactic produced explosions during the early days of the crisis.
Officials warned that a release of radiation this time would be larger than in previous releases because more nuclear fuel had degraded.
They said the process could involve the emission of a cloud dense with iodine, as well as the radioactive elements [or rather "isotopes of" - poul] krypton and xenon.
lame…
http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/some-progress-reported-in-japans-efforts-to-ease-crisis-at-stricken-nuclear-plant/2011/03/20/AB9Zqq2_story_1.html
Another nuclear safety official acknowledged that the government only belatedly realized the need to give potassium iodide to those living within 12 miles (20 kilometers) of the nuclear complex.
The pills help reduce chances of thyroid cancer, one of the diseases that may develop from radiation exposure, by preventing the body from absorbing radioactive iodine. The official, Kazuma Yokota, said the explosion that occurred while venting the plant’s Unit 3 reactor a week ago should have triggered the distribution. But the order came only three days later.
“We should have made this decision and announced it sooner,” Yokota told reporters at the emergency command center in Fukushima. “It is true that we had not foreseen a disaster of these proportions. We had not practiced or trained for something this bad. We must admit that we were not fully prepared.”
Good post.
Yes … TEPCO, Japan’s Ministries, and their ideological defenders have begun their dance of non-apology apologies.
Now TEPCO officials and Japan’s Ministries are very much in the same boat.
History shows plainly that cultures and institutions that embrace policies willful ignorance, obfuscation, and ideology-driven lying …
… seldom ever again show a liking for inconvenient truths.
Source: http://books.google.com/books?id=E1XreRBrXxMC&pg=PA1
You know, sometimes in a crisis, people just make bad decisions. It doesn’t mean they had nefarious motives.
But that admission is more significant that you think. In Japan, face is a big deal. Admitting that you weren’t prepared is painful. That took a lot to get someone to publicly admit that. Maybe this incident might help them get over that particular cultural blinder, which I suspect is at the root of a lot of errors made here.
no, it means that every bureaucracy is an inept and malevolent entity, dedicated only to its own survival, and if one wants to survive radiation outbreak unscathed, one should better have his own iodide pills and monitor the news, instead of relying on authorities.
and he wept
An important lesson of history, that applies directly to Japan’s disaster at Fukushima, is discussed at-length in H. R. McMaster’s Dereliction of Duty: Lyndon Johnson, Robert McNamara, the Joint Chiefs of Staff, and the Lies that Led to Vietnam.
These lessons-learned are is summarized by McMaster in this terrific quote by Hans Morgenthau:
It is sumamrized too in McMaster’s own conclusion:
Hmmmm … does that sound like TEPCO?
• Multiple reinforcing failings: check.
• Arrogance and weakness: check.
• Lying in pursuit of self-interest: check.
• Abdication of responsibility: check.
Before this forum’s ideology-driven drones come swarming out … better check the credentials of the author H. R. McMaster.
The above writings have been on the Marine Corps Commandant’s Professional Reading list for many years. Every serving officer in the Corps is intimately familiar with them.
So prhaps Tatler readers should reflect upon these ideas too.
SOURCE: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/H._R._McMaster
This was simply a response to an inquiry, “So which one do people chose to go apeshit over?” to illustrate why people go ape$hit over nuclear accidents disproportionately to tsunami (regardless of number killed) – namely someone to blame.
This was not a suggestion to “Ban” any risky behavior. Instead a psychological observation and guess at what spurs ape$hitiness.
oops. Response to Farix #10
The professionals at the Japan Atomic Industrial Forum (JAIF) have released their daily report for March 21.
The number of conditions rated by the JAIF “SEVERE (NEED IMMEDIATE ACTION)” has increased by three, from seventeen on March 17 to twenty on March 21; the new three SEVERE conditions are the evacuations ordered in consequence of meltdowns at Reactors 1, 2, and 3.
At least seven more conditions presently rated by the JAIF as having “HIGH SIGNIFICANCE” may potentially be rated “SEVERE” as information becomes available: these are
There’s a lot of ideology-first fog being released … the above status report is from a source that (so far) has proven reasonably accurate.
In consequence of America’s Global Hawk drone flights, American analysts presumably have a good idea of the status of the above in-question systems.
For whatever reason (and no such reason is good IMHO) this information is not being publicly released.
SOURCE: http://www.jaif.or.jp/english/
Just because the information you seek to support your hypotheses isn’t available, doesn’t mean the Japanese government is withholding it. Could be that it’s not available because it doesn’t exist.
UPDATE: Trouble. Workers evacuated in consequence of “gray smoke billowing from Reactor 3.”
Reactor 3 is the plutonium-fueled reactor. And the only known combustable material in Building 3 is the zirconium reactor cladding.
Thank god the wind is presently blowing this radioactive smoke out-to-see.
All Japan must pray these winds continue — because defense-in-depth has failed utterly at Fukushima.
UPDAE: no radiation detected, workers go back. Somehow AP never mentions those things.
AP:
”
And the only known combustable material in Building 3 is the zirconium reactor cladding.
”
I thought it took 250,000 gallons ( several days to pump that) of saltwater to put out a zirconium fire.
Couldn’t be an electrical fire from all the salt water they have been pouring in while trying to restore electrical equipment, could it?
Way to go, thinking man.
I see you finally figured out what defense in depth means. For now. Until it means something else.
Maybe some fuel pellets fell out during the zirconium fire and the resulting “nuclear explosion” that you told us about occurred and blew out the fire.
Hey, you did make the call that the solution was a nuclear strike, didn’t you?
Of course the Japanese authorities are covering this all up, and we will see a steadily decreasing trend of activity levels around the plant continue.
Could the smoke be coming from an electrical fire?
No. Reactors 3 and 4 have had zero electrical power since the tsunami.
That is why we know so little about their status.
The smoke could be coming from bursts of zirconium fires … or from melted-down fuel rods burning their way through steel and concrete … or from re-criticality events. Or even from all three — no one knows.
According to unconfirmed reports, 3 and 4 got power about the time that the “smoke” appeared. Most likely explanation: when the pumps came on, and submerged the exposed portions of the rods in the pools, a big puff of steam came off.
Or from six bags of laundry that got washed into the fuel storage pool by all the water that got sprayed in.
But nope, facts-on-the-ground tells us that this is a zirconium fire. A short lived one with, a radioactive release that was blowing the other way. And then out to sea.
Thanks for the Pu comment Myth Buster. I usually don’t bring that up, cause it makes the greenies cry so.
“no radiation detected, workers go back.”
you must be reading some different news than I do:
http://english.kyodonews.jp/news/2011/03/80015.html
“Radiation levels at the plant briefly increased after white smoke was detected from the No. 2 reactor, but later fell.”
it is not electric fire either:
“Hidehiko Nishiyama, a spokesman for the nuclear safety agency, said the causes of the smoke billowing from the No. 2 and No. 3 reactor buildings remain unknown and that the originally scheduled work to revive power and cooling systems at the troubled reactors will be delayed by one day. As the No. 3 reactor remains without power, smoke was not apparently triggered by an electricity leak or short-circuiting, Nishiyama said.”
the polyanna troll brigade is wrong, as usual.
All commercial reactors burn plutonium; it’s just a matter of degree.
Get a Grip, Part III: Smoke plume also rising from Reactor II. Reason unknown.
Favorable Weather on Monday: Today’s winds are offshore, and are carrying these radiation plumes out directly to sea.
That is why radiation levels mean little … no-one is reporting the downwind radiation levels out-to-sea.
Sobering Weather Forecast for Tuesday: The winds Tuesday are predicted to blow south and east … carrying the radiation plume toward major metropolitan areas.
Somehow TEPCO corporate management never mentions these things.
Isn’t that right, Charlie?
That is why Charlie and I together … along with all the citizens of Japan, and around the globe … must pray that (1) the fires at Reactor 2 and Reactor 3 subside as mysteriously as they started, and (2) the winds at Fukushima continue to blow offshore.
The Austrians are showing us how complex past winds have been … and how fortunate Japan has been, that winds have blown uniformly out-to-sea.
Pray that these favorable winds continues … because “the worst-case outcomes don’t bear thinking about.”
——-
Unfall in Fukushima: Ausbreitung von Radioaktivität
Animated GIF: http://www.zamg.ac.at/pict/aktuell/20110318_fuku_I-131_logo.gif
Those liberal wimps, the US Navy, are taking extreme precautions:
US Naval ships evacuating from *south* of Tokyo? Yikes. Kinda makes a person wonder what that Global Hawk intel is showing, eh?
Charlie’s recent posts have shockingly abused this forum’s female posters for over-reacting … so perhaps now Charlie would like to shockingly abuse the US Navy … for taking concrete measures to mitigate the same risks?
Here’s the full quote, from the Navy Times (http://www.navytimes.com/news/2011/03/navy-george-washington-radiation-yokosuka-032111w/):
SAN DIEGO — The aircraft carrier George Washington on Monday got underway from its berth at Yokosuka Naval Base, Japan, as a “precaution,” Navy officials said.
George Washington, which has been undergoing maintenance at its forward-deployed homeport south of Tokyo when Japan was hit March 11 by a devastating earthquake and tsunami, left port “to assure she can sustain a state of readiness in the long term for the defense of Japan,” U.S. 7th Fleet officials said in a statement.
The carrier “is scheduled to remain in the local waters off Japan,” officials said. Moving the ship “is a precaution given the capabilities of the vessel and the complex nature of this disaster.”
So some Admiral decided to shove off for a while. This proves what?
I hope you understand the company you’re in with this conspiracy mongering. Alex Jones agrees that there’s a big hairy conspiracy.
Oh, I’m not buying into the conspiracy theory. And apparently neither is the U.S. Navy, since their plan is to stay in the local waters off Japan. You know, right where all the really bad stuff is blowing, according to some.
The Washington’s mission was not to pull up to this particular site and drop shore power cables to feed the plant.
The mission was to render aid to Japan as needed. First off the carrier is much more valuable to the Japanese as a mobile medical center, and a base for search and rescue operations.
The nukes on board are not the best people to use to work at the site for a number of reasons. One is they don’t speak Japanese, two they are not familiar with the BWR technology, and Three, the Navy needs them to drive the ship around.
I would not recommend a career in the nuclear navy, AP. They have pretty high expectations about personal integrity. You should stay in college until you get degree. You lack intellectual maturity too, but that will come with time and experience.
Mark_B, what part of the Tatler’s policy “avoid ad hominem attacks” is mysterious to folks around here?
Folks can draw their own (sobering) conclusions from facts-on-the-ground easily enough, right?
Pointing out your inconsistencies and their likely cause is distressing enough that you have to call “teacher! teacher!”, every time you and your pal poul are called on your juvenile antics.
I mean, c’mon. You hold the ramblings of a anti-nuke busybody in higher esteem than the author of the sources of his work, the United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission, who criticizes him for storytelling in what is supposed to be a serious endeavor. No, they must be lying. Everything they didn’t call out as false must be true. “Do you have proof that it is not true?”, you ask.
Dose rates trending down? It’s a coverup. Vietnam has exactly what to do with Japan?
The PJM rules are ground rules, butthead. They are tools our host has in place to remove adolescents. My guess is if you are contributing to the discussion, you stay. If you want to hide behind speech codes, stay on campus.
charlie, here’s an example why minutae readings of radiation here and there are not as important as the condition of the reactors – it changes with wind and rain.
http://english.kyodonews.jp/news/2011/03/80010.html
Far greater amounts of radioactive iodine and cesium were found in rain, dust and particles in the air in some areas over a 24-hour period from Sunday morning due to rainfall, the science ministry said Monday.
They are certainly tracking Curies released at the site.
That is why the call snow “natures vacuum”, it cleans the air.
Oh, and don’t eat the snow, yellow or not.
Recent readings from MEXT doubled since 20th at Ibaraki. Similar trends nearby and Tokyo.
http://www.mext.go.jp/component/english/__icsFiles/afieldfile/2011/03/22/1303971_2213.pdf
One ounce of plutonium is enough to kill every man, woman, and child on the planet.
You would think instead of a media blackout, Fukishima would be in the spot light with all of mankind lending support to divert total disaster.
Instead, I read of rumors about the oligarchs in the world cozy in a deep underground bunker in India.
Something is wrong, and it’s not with the victims if this thing goes critical with plutonium oxide circling the world.