Did Iran Test a Nuclear Bomb in North Korea in 2010?
The Sunday morning edition of Germany’s Die Welt reports that Western intelligence agencies detected two nuclear weapons tests in North Korea in 2010, and that one or both of them might have been conducted for Iran. Die Welt sets the reported nuclear tests in the context of new documentation showing that the Iranian regime began its drive for nuclear weapons as early as 1984, under the direct orders of the late Ayatollah Khomeini. The author is the respected German analyst Hans Rühle, whose evaluation of Israel’s capacity to cripple the Iranian nuclear program created a stir last month.
The Die Welt report reads like a line-by-line refutation of the reported U.S. intelligence evaluation that there is no “hard evidence” that Iran is building nuclear weapons. That is a noteworthy reversal: the Obama administration’s intelligence chiefs claim that Iran is not an imminent threat, while a former top German official warns of immediate danger to the Jewish state. The fact is that there are some Germans who do not want to be responsible for a second Holocaust.
Rühle, who headed the German Defense Ministry’s policy planning staff during the peak of the Cold War in the 1980s, deplores the “credulousness of Western experts” who accept Iran’s protests that its nuclear program is peaceful.
Many Western experts still give credence to these representations. Despite numerous indications to the contrary, they give Iran the presumption of innocence, arguing that a nation’s intent to weaponize nuclear power is not proven until it has carried out a nuclear test. But what if Iran had already tested a nuclear weapon, and not on Iranian territory, but in a place where nuclear tests are conducted without regard for world opinion, and where nuclear expertise and technology have long been exported in exchange for hard currency payments–in North Korea?
Evidence of the 2010 nuclear tests in North Korea was published Feb. 3 in Nature magazine, citing the work of the Swedish nuclear physicist Lars-Erik de Geer. The Swedish scientist analyzed data showing the presence of radioisotopes that betrayed a uranium bomb explosion. De Geer took the radioisotope data and compared them with the South Korean reports, as well as meteorological records. Nature reports, “After a year of work, he has concluded that North Korea carried out two small nuclear tests in April and May 2010 that caused explosions in the range of 50–200 tonnes of TNT equivalent. The types and ratios of isotopes detected, he says, suggest that North Korea was testing materials and techniques intended to boost the yield of its weapons.”
Evasive nuclear testing will be increasingly difficult in future, because new, sensitive instrumentation will soon be available.
David,
From what I hear, a lot of the AIPAC attendees seem to be swallowing the administration’s line.
Did you catch this lullaby at AIPAC by “(f)ormer Rep. Jane Harman (D-Calif.) … the intelligence community ha(s) been significantly reformed since Iraq (and thus can be relied on to give suitable advance warning of Iranian acquisition of nuclear weapons) – http://pjmedia.com/tatler/2012/03/04/cheney-dont-count-on-u-s-intel-assessments-on-iran/”?
U.S. pro-Israel groups have not even gotten behind the relatively modest proposal of former Sen. Robb (D) and retired USAF General Wald to supply Israel w/long range tankers and more advanced “bunker-busting” munitions (http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204573704577184730977390006.html).
Alan Dershowitz hailed Obama as a friend of Israel after the Goldberg interview appeared. There’s a lot of wishful thinking out there, especially b Democrats who backed Obama originally, were made to look like idiots when Obama came out with the 1967 borders demand, and now feel justified. They can go to cocktail parties now and say, “You see, I wasn’t a complete idiot after all, and we were right to keep working inside the Democratic party.” But I did not hear a lot of applause for Obama when he said that now is the time to let the impact of sanctions sink in . It was also bizarrely self-serving to claim that “war talk” had raised the price of oil and benefited the Iranians — hadn’t he just engaged in war talk himself?
The one thing Obama had right is that the Bush administration dropped the ball on Iran. I complained about that for years: they had made American occupation troops in Iraq hostage to Iran.
Can’t you hear it coming? The Jooos are responsible for the world economic crisis. If only they had not attacked Iran and waited like President Obama said they should. Jooos hold our fate in their hands and have no mercy. We suffer for their perceived need to survive at all costs!
David,
Thanks for your reply.
“The one thing Obama had right is that the Bush administration dropped the ball on Iran” – Agree that GWB was a ultimately a great disappointment on Iran. But, GWB began by labeling Iran as part of the “Axis of Evil”. Circa 2003/04 the mullahs (along w/Libya and Syria) all seemed fairly concerned that they were next and modified their behavior somewhat. The direction of change between GWB 1st term and 2d term was a tragedy.
I think BHO is also rather disingenuous (what’s new?) in accusing GWB of dropping the Iran ball. It would be just as accurate to say that BHO and his cohorts knocked the Iran ball out of GWB’s hands and profited thereby in 2006 and 2008. I had a minor role as a low level surrogate debater for McCain in 2008. BHO’s surrogates routinely used the meme that the “Bush/McCain” administration and “neo-cons” planned an “Iraq II” in Iran. Even modest, straight-forward measures to counter Iran such as Kyl-Lieberman were described as propaganda to drag us into war. I have no idea what GWB ultimately would have done in Iran, but BHO and the D’s eroded the political support which would have given him options.
Regarding US troops in Iraq as “hostages” to Iran, shame on U.S. leaders for viewing four crack U.S. Army/USMC combat divisions, allied formations from the UK, Poland, etc., SOF assets, and many squadrons of land-based (in Iraq, Kuwait and Diego Garcia) and naval air as hostages rather than as a tool to punish our enemies and inspire our friends. You’ve indicated that that was the assessment from ADM Mullen’s office. If that was the case, to quote the shade of Cardinal R., “Such fools would not have lasted a week in my service”.
I enjoyed and agree with your description of the milquetoast American Jewish establishment. Are you at AIPAC? Hopefully you’ll write a longer piece on it.
Thanks much, MarcH. I do hope Spengler has more to add.
I saw Iraq and Afghanistan as encirclement of Iran, and was hoping that Bush could keep going. This would force the Saudis to reconsider their 2002 threat to collapse our currency; a quick mop-up of the Levant for dessert, and then on to save Africa to finally finish off the 1400 year-old Threat.
I had suspected that domestic opportunists had repeated the 1974-5 Vietnam years of pulling defeat from victory. These are the good folks who still hate Pinochet for killing the 3000 communists (who themselves had killed 300,000).
Can anyone here speculate as to why Bush couldn’t make a hard turn thataway and nail the IRGC?
Thank you alzaebo.
I agree with you that it is a tremendously puzzling and frustrating that the West has twiddled its thumbs as the mullahs of Iran have gone forward with nukes and terrorism. This has been an ongoing problem since the 1990s. If future historians ever unpack this issue it will tell us much about our times. I could write more about this but have other commitments this AM.
Your comparison to Indochina 1974-75 is well done. Whatever merits of our entry into Iraq and Afghanistan (I think I can make a decent case for a continuing presence in Iraq) we enlisted local leaders and individuals to make common cause with us in various capacities. In many, many cases they fought at our side honorably and courageously. We then left or are leaving them to the tender mercies of the IRGC, ISI, TB, HQN, etc. I saw the beginning of this process in Iraq in 2009 and in Afghanistan in 2011 and it was not pretty. More than incitement or religious fanaticism (although those are factors) I think this explains a lot of the koran-buring violence.
We may have a disagreement about the nature of Islam and Muslims (hey, it’s a big topic, 1300 years of history and geography from Morocco to the Philippines). IMHO, it is a very troubled culture and is exceptionally challenged by modernity (see our host’s book). Nevertheless, I agree with Daniel Pipes in broadly dividing Islam and Muslim into radical, traditional and moderate/progressive. I believe that the radicals are a great threat and that they multiply in inverse proportion to the West’s demonstrations of cowardice and fecklessness. For example, regarding KSA, I think her main establishment is made up of mostly traditionalists who act as a conservative force internationally. As the Wikileaks analysis indicates, they are dismayed by our cowardly and feckless policy towards Iran.
So? What is your point?
In the words of a very famous Russian, “What Is To Be Done”? What Can be Done? What Should Be Done?
Do you want to bomb Iran & start World War 3 & Armageddon?
America is bankrupt & tired of all these never-ending “wars” in the Middle East. What has America gained from all these wars? Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya — none has turned out as was predicted when we plunged in. What has America gained from all this war? And now you want a war with Iran?
Israel needs to do whatever they think is necessary in order to defend themselves. Stop kvetching & trying to drag America into a war with Iran. If Israel wants to attack Iran — then go for it. But stop kvetching already. Israel: Do Whatever You Have To Do. Why is Israel not doing its own job? It’s certainly not our job to save them. They have been given a military, they’ve been given billions of dollars for 60 years now.
Israel is like a dependent child. How much can we give a country that refuses to defend itself? Unless Israel defends itself, it will become for America what Cuba was to the Soviet Union.
It’s not our job to save Israel. Israel has been given billions of dollars a year by the US for the last 60 years. God bless em. They have the strongest military in the Middle East by a great measure. Why can’t Israel defend itself? Why must we be the big brother in the schoolyard? I’m sick of Israel crying. I’m sick of it already – crying wolf. Go do something about it! You have the most powerful military in the Middle East – go use it!
I don’t want to hear about it anymore. I don’t want to hear about “the boy who cried wolf.”
Since Ronald Reagan went home, the United States has attacked or invaded Panama, Iraq, Somalia, Haiti, Bosnia, Serbia, Afghanistan, Iraq again, and Libya.
How have Americans benefited from all this war? How have the Chinese suffered these 20 years by not having been in on the action?
Who wants war?
Who does not want a war?
So? What is your point?
In the words of a very famous Russian, “What Is To Be Done”? What Can be Done? What Should Be Done?
Do you want to bomb Iran & start World War 3 & Armageddon?
America is bankrupt & tired of all these never-ending “wars” in the Middle East. What has America gained from all these wars? Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya — none has turned out as was predicted when we plunged in. What has America gained from all this war? And now you want a war with Iran?
Israel needs to do whatever they think is necessary in order to defend themselves. Stop kvetching & trying to drag America into a war with Iran. If Israel wants to attack Iran — then go for it. But stop kvetching already. Israel: Do Whatever You Have To Do. Why is Israel not doing its own job? It’s certainly not our job to save them. They have been given a military, they’ve been given billions of dollars for 60 years now.
Israel is like a dependent child. How much can we give a country that refuses to defend itself? Unless Israel defends itself, it will become for America what Cuba was to the Soviet Union.
It’s not our job to save Israel. Israel has been given billions of dollars a year by the US for the last 60 years. God bless em. They have the strongest military in the Middle East by a great measure. Why can’t Israel defend itself? Why must we be the big brother in the schoolyard? I’m sick of Israel crying. I’m sick of it already – crying wolf. Go do something about it! You have the most powerful military in the Middle East – go use it! I don’t want to hear about it anymore. I don’t want to hear about “the boy who cried wolf.”
Since Ronald Reagan went home, the United States has attacked or invaded Panama, Iraq, Somalia, Haiti, Bosnia, Serbia, Afghanistan, Iraq again, and Libya.
How have Americans benefited from all this war? How have the Chinese suffered these 20 years by not having been in on the action?
Who wants war?
Who does not want a war?
How much do you want to bet that the first place Iran uses the nuclear weapons will be the US and not Israel? Do you really think those “Death to America” rallies over the last 20 years were all just talk?
I don’t want war either. I want diplomacy to work. But the fact that Iran has been pursuing nuclear weapons is not news. And from what we known now, they’ve been at it since the mid 1980s at least. They’re not paying any attention to diplomacy.
If you think this is just Israel’s problem you are deluding yourself.
I agree that the US is the most likely target of an Iranian first strike. As I wrote before (and before) destroying Israel for the Mullahs would be a pleasure, destroying the US is a necessity. As long as the US exist no dictatorship will ever be safe from its own people.
Destroying the US with a few nukes would be easy. Just sail some very low weight nukes into NYC and our coastal refineries, maybe up the Potomac to DC and the US is the Republic of Chad. Not only would it be convenient it could be safe. If the Mullahs release a video claiming Al-Qaeda credit for the attack and if Obama is still President they can be reasonably sure there will be no retaliation.
It would take a lot more than “a few” nukes to take out our coastal refineries, which stretch from at least New Jersey to Texas (not counting the West coast system which I gather is not connected to the rest of the system).
Obama might not retaliate but if so I doubt he’d say President for long (impeachment), we’d know from their isotope fingerprints where they were built and … well, you saw what we did when jihadists killed a “mere” 3,000 of us. Trashing one or more of our cities and killing 10s to 100s of thousands of us would result in a similarly disproportionate response.
One freighter on each coast, Gulf, Atlantic and Pacific.
One short range missile each capable of only 130,000 feet altitude.
EMPs. The U.S. goes into the stone age. Only 10% alive one year later.
I would hope we’d do better than 10%, but yes, of course, modulo launching rockets who’s guidance systems were originally designed for solid, not tilting back and forth etc. ground. And see below.
But that’s not what Bob From Virginia was talking about. It’s also a risky gambit that could go horribly wrong (e.g. not all of them work, they overestimate the effectiveness and the knockout isn’t total) … and the military’s revenge on the originating county, if not religion, would total. That might even be a bit too much chaos for many of the extreme Twelvers.
I forgot to mention that lighting them off at ground level significantly reduces the reach of their thermal and blast effects (while increasing the downwind fallout; do this in the Gulf Coast and millions could die).
If the US had been hands off from the first place Israel would have already acted. Instead the US policy from Bush to Obama has been to keep Israel from attacking while pursuing our own policy.
Right now the drama is acting out again as the POTUS doubles down publicly declaring that the US will use military force if neccessary.
All this time Israel’s more limited capabilities become less effective as the Iranians dig in. Eventually they will not be able to defend themselves as a direct result of US policy.
The US is not going to back out now. The certainty of a nuclear arms race in the mideast is a strategic threat. That is the policy of the people we elected and will be after November given the way elections are shaping up.
David/Spengler, Please ELIMINATE #3 & #4.
Comment #5 is the one I want.
It would be much easier to comment with a “Preview” button…
Spengler: The quick answer to your question is no. There would be no point in an unannounced test. The reason to build the bomb i to have it. Folks won’t know you have it, and therefor won’t treat you with the respect you want to achieve by having a bomb, unless you test it in a way that demonstrates you have it.
If and when Iran gets a bomb, they will test it in the open so that everyone will know they have it.
There would be no point in an unannounced test.
Well, if you’re not sure it’s going to go BOOM (as opposed to fizzle) it avoids embarrassment. Based on what I know (what a well educated in science citizen can learn) it sounds like either a couple of very pathetic fizzles of DPRK, or Iran, or who ever’s devices, or tests designed for a specific thing like the suggested boosting. In the latter case, probably not by Iran.
Unless Iran wanted to do a couple of subcritical tests away from the close observation they’re under. Sniffing these isotopes coming from Iran would be … bad for them right now.
Also, unannounced tests seemed to work for both the US and Israel.
Wow, you would have to be entirely ignorant of history in this area to swallow this: Pretty much everyone of the ‘emerging’ nuclear club (i.e., Pakistan, India, etc.) conducted unannounced tests before revealing (or having revealed) their nuclear capacity.
Actually, the probability has increased that the first “evidence” anyone has of an Iranian bomb is when they detonate it over an enemy city.
Wretchard: What is the administration’s real endgame in the region it it doesn’t seriously intend to challenge the Iranians, and if it is oblivious to the growing chaos in Egypt? What is the administration’s actual goal in Southwest Asia, besides preventing the burning of more Korans?
What is the game? That’s the question. Is the Obama administration playing a game with us? Or are they playing with their own delusions?
“Who you gonna believe, me or your lying eyes?”
(Excellent question, by the way. So well said.)
America placed an oil embargo on Japan, and they attacked. What would a 12th Imam worshiping country do if America as the Great Satan, Iran does Lucifer’s bidding too, and places embargos on it’s Holy country for the god of the Kabba?
A. 100 Belsons?
B. Dirty bomb?
c. Give in to the Global government of Satan?
D. A, and B only
E. Bomb Israel?
D. A,B, and E only?
“And tommorrow, in Jerusalem!”
If NoKo already, why not a Bomb exchange program with Pakistan while they’re at it? Both are quite possible, and unlike North Korea, transferring the material across a land border draws far less attention than via sea or air for all Israeli and Western spooks. All you need to roll a bomb from Pakistan to Iran is a few trucks — one for the Bomb, and a few for the bars of Iranian bulleon to pay off the Pakistani generals. But hey, let’s just bomb em’ anyway, that’ll lead to regime change…or will it?
@ 3 and 4 ask some very good questions. I watched your CNBC appearance David and too be honest I was disappointed. Sure, the end of the world is not a trade, as Moscow oligarch fund manager Eric Kraus says, save for buying firearms, canned foods, and good ag land in New Zealand. Nonetheless…gold is manipulated like hell. Try buying some real physical in Hong Kong for the price the CME and Bloomberg quotes for paper gold and see what I mean.
Pretty nice feather in the cap if Iran can take over the Saudi-funded bomb project in Pakistan. I doubt many Pakistanis want to die for the glory of the Royals.
Plus David, the Establishment has already spoken that resisting an Iranian nuke even with lots of U.S. and/or Israeli bombing is futile. The cover of the latest issue of The Economist says so! And you can’t argue with them — they’ve been right about Gasputin’s once and future Evil Empire since Ed Lucas was telling Eric Kraus in the 1990s that the Russian Federation would collapse into four mutually hostile states.
http://cdn.theatlanticwire.com/img/upload/2012/02/24/cover_ww_2.jpg
If this isn’t a ‘don’t even think about it Obama/Bibi, we were just shadowboxing/MIC pumping with Iran all along’ signal, I don’t know what is.
Sorry I’m having trouble containing my snark today. At least the teary eyed Putin probably got a congratulatory phone call from Israel’s Avigdor Lieberman (sp?) on his reelection today. I only wish all these Golos and Demintern operatives like Alexey Navalny could be turned loose on the ballot boxes in Cook County and in every major Blue city in the U.S. to detect all the ‘carousel voting’ allegedly going on there. And oh yeah, to wire every U.S. polling place with live webcams like Putin ordered in Russia would cost $30 billion here instead of the $300 million it cost in Russia. Say what you will about Putin, all he wants is high oil prices and to be left the hell alone. But they won’t leave him
How dare you differ with your Anglo-American Russophobic elitist betters at The Economist David!
Nice article. Thanks
> “…Khomeini himself who decided in 1984 to resume the nuclear weapons program….”
And that would perhaps explain why in 1985 the regime pleaded in the pages of Keyhan for its 3,000+ refugee nuclear scientists to return to their former home … all relocation expenses to be paid by the regime.
Keyhan, however, is an open source, and CIA doesn’t do open source.
Actually, for the monoglot CIA, it would be a closed, open source, wouldn’t it.
I am guessing the recent detonations were relatively small, if the Swede is right.
But even so, how do you get a decent size hunk of highly enriched uranium from Iran to North Korea without being detected?
Maybe the Instapundit could get Frank Munger to comment.
The John Batchelor show reported in 2004? that the brand-new, billion-dollar airport in Tehran had closed. The very first shipment landing was a cargo of highly-enriched uranium from North Korea; unfortunately, they spilled it on the runway. The airport remained closed for a year. No hazmat handling equiptment.
Do you recall how intelligence leaks during the Bush years implied that Iran ceased to pursue nuclear weapons development and all the media picked up on it? I remember at the time thinking that this, along with not finding any WMD in Iraq severely limited any action Bush could take.
Why is it that leaks from the intelligence community only come out to harm/sabotage republican presidents?
Because stupid Republicans at all levels of government don’t fire everybody in government that they have an arguable right to fire the instant their hand comes off The Bible. In two terms, GWB only placed a thin veneer of Republican appointees, many of dubious competence, over Clinton’s government. Then the Bushies wondered whey they were leaked, thwarted, and sabotaged at every turn. My state had its Republican Legislature rendered impotent and its senior US Senator replaced by a Democrat hack as the result of holdover Democrats left in the USDOJ.
Somewhat in their defense, most governments mirror the US government’s structure, which was designed to employ the maximum number of Democrats and cronies; a Republican couldn’t find loyal, competent Republicans to fill all the appointee positions if his/her life depended on it. But then, it would take actually knowing something about running a government to think out restructuring a government so it could actually be run by a Republican.
Because stupid Republicans at all levels of government don’t fire everybody in government that they have an arguable right to fire the instant their hand comes off The Bible.
Like how Clinton fired every US Attorney? Strange how the rules changed when George W. Bush was the President….
The problem is the turbulent guys you are talking about are officially non-partisan civil servants, like the ones who got off scot-free after their bogus prosecution of Ted Stevens (who lost his Senate seat, AKA Mission Accomplished (in theory Holder might indict them for obstruction of justice; I’m not holding my breath, pun intended)). I don’t exactly want a return to the spoils system but we’ve either got to make big changes here, severely shrink the size and scope of the Federal Government, or likely watch it all go down in flames (after which one or both of the these option will likely happen anyway).
There’s a reason practically every sane government treats its attornies as political appointees; there is no such thing as a trustworthy attorney in government. The worst government managers are attornies. That assessment really isn’t a criticism of their character; some are fine people, but an attorney has to believe he can win any argument. Consequently, once they decide on a course of action, they’ll go right over the cliff with it.
I spent most of my career as a labor relations advocate and negotiator, as often as not across the table from attornies, often hot shot attornies. I learned to think like they did and I learned to defeat them pretty regularly. When I moved on to policy and management levels, I’ll be the first to admit that I was dangerous. I was an arrogant SOB who believed he could do anything and had done enough things that nobody thought could be done that I had some credibility with it. Fortunately, I had a couple of pretty good bosses.
As to the rest of the government, ANY Republican elected to ANY office should fire every political appointee in his/her government while his/her hand is coming off The Bible. Some of them are just apolitical SMEs, so you let them miss a check or two just to show them you’re the boss and call them in to kiss the ring and hire them back. The rest you cast to the outer darkness. Anybody who got a half-million dollar mortgage while a political appointee deserves to lose their house, their Lexus, and their bimbo. Of course the media will bleat and wail about how the uncaring, partisan, and mean-spirited Republicans are doing in these selfless public servants and they’ll have a mommy with cancer who just lost her health insurance on the news the day you do it, but the news cycle is 24 hours and it only lasts a little longer than a root canal. Fire them all!
Thank the gods somebody finally said it.
The staffers are the danger because they run everything.
The problem with government or legal metasticization is NO RISK.
I’d like to see the judge, lawyer, bureaucrat, or politician lose THEIR children if their judgement is bad or their decision causes harm!
“Obama’s speech to AIPAC contained the bizarre assertion that “war talk” had pushed up the price of oil and therefore helped the government of Iran.” Perhaps Obama failed to notice that his *real* war activities against Libya also drove up oil prices. Why didn’t it bother him then?
Bullseye. Wish I’d of thought of that one. You’re the first I’ve heard say it!
Obama is betting he can spin his way out of disaster. For those who think Iran’s nukes pose no threat to the US, think on how FDR onward all Presidents but this one have insisted on US military dominance of the Gulf to keep the world oil price low and thus serve American interests.
Imagine oil at say, $200 a barrel (it is around $121 or so for Brent last week); and gas at $8 a gallon. Overnight the social peace that America bought internally with cheap oil (Whites can avoid non-White violence directed at them by living far away in exurbs built on cheap oil/gas) collapses.
Just on that issue alone, Iranian nukes translates into burning American cities.
Iran wants to nuke Israel because it shows their power, gets rid of their urban Green Revolution dissidents in an Israeli response, and intimidates the Gulf into surrender.
Obama thinks he can either kick the can down the road as: Carter, Reagan, Bush, Clinton, Bush, and himself have done since 1979, or spin disaster.
Obama has reason for thinking he can spin disaster — he is scandal proof. As a Black man he is immune to any scandal. He’s the Alpha Male, and women/the media (but I repeat myself) will forgive an Alpha male any scandal. See Clinton. BUT … everyone wants performance. Ask any “first Black” Football coach who was eventually fired for not producing wins. Performance and results matter. Mostly in the won-loss column of people’s wallets. THAT is the looming disaster threatening to tear America apart.
What? You thought all the goodies of globalization, those cheap sneakers, ability to ethnically cleanse Whites (80% of California in 1960, less than 40% today), and absorb basically half of Mexico plus subsidize fertility thereof (16 year old girls cannot support their babies — White middle class taxpayers paying for their own do) would not have a cost? That all THAT would not require LARGE and PERMANENT investments in military dominance to protect resources?
I like Israel. I like their nationalism. I like the enemies they make. But even if you don’t, if you like the relatively good life now (it can ALWAYS get a LOT worse) it costs. You just don’t want to see it. Iran’s nukes = American strife, the equivalent of the Detroit and LA Rodney King Riots that never stop. Or Crown Heights if you prefer. Cheap oil buys a lot of social peace. And that cheap oil (like cheap Mexican labor) costs.
exactly
I’ve never heard it put that way, a very interesting view.
Having been raised in an Elijah Muhummed neighborhood, I find I must absolutely agree. In California, I’m still the minority. (Even so the neighbors are old-fashioned familia and quite nice.)
The anti-White whites could be called collabos, or just plain dupes. It was their party bosses who directed the 160 year war against Negroes, and then blamed us for it.
I was just thinking this morning that the white Obama voters voted as they did so they could prove, once and for all, Just How Wrong We Neanderthals Are. “That’ll show ‘em, those racist b*stards!”
Some more confirmation on Stratfor’s ‘Yury Chaika’ connection here:
http://johnhelmer.net/?p=6879
Chaika also had very real heart problems, and the last thing a Russian procurator who has made lotsa enemies already needs is talking to a ‘private intel agency’ to make those heart problems worse.
Keystone clowns, all. At least you can get some of Debka’s stuff and fellow Austinite Alex Jones’ rants for free.
Bush completely botched the North Korean threat.
The final tripwire for any rogue state is when they successfully test a nuclear weapon.
On October 6, 2006, North Korea announced it had conducted a successful nuclear test.
Bush did NOTHING. Absolutely NOTHING.
And North Korea went ahead and built a small nuclear arsenal.
If Kerry had been President instead of Bush, the GOP would have demanded his impeachment over this.
North Korea wouldn’t be conducting nuclear tests today for Iran’s benefit or its own benefit, if Bush had put their nuclear capability out of business in 2006.
Now it’s too late.
North Korea could blast South Korea to pieces without nuclear weapons, just due to population density. The nuclear weapons are a source of national pride, intended to hold together a dubious regime. Just like Iran. Bush played the right move in NOT intervening. It would not have ended well.
Israel vs Iran is strategically most similar to the Korean standoff, except with the dangerous difference of culture/language/religion thrown into the mix. This time, war might actually happen, and nukes or no nukes would not matter. Population density would guarantee massive destruction just from conventional weapons. In much of the world, nukes are already de facto obsolete weapons.
To refresh your hazy memory…
It was Bill Clinton who tried to do something — back in 1994. (!)
The Peanut intervened…
And, with less than sixty days to live, Kim got Jimmy to cut a deal for him that the WH choked on.
Ever since Clinton hates Carter. It’s a major event to have them on stage together. Check out their eyeball English when they do.
—–
It was suppressed by the MSM (D) at the time, but Clinton was mobilizing America for war against North Korea in 1994. That’s why the Peanut flew to North Korea in a panic. ( Ex-presidents are kept in the loop WRT foreign policies. Clinton was running this gambit past Nixon, Ford, Carter, Reagan, and Bush 41.
I was an eyewitness to the stunning sky-train that the USAF ran through Hawaii and off towards Korea.
What is a sky-train? It’s NON-STOP C-141 and C-5 cargo planes flowing in one direction only landing for fuel no more than five minutes apart for hour upon hour upon hour. So many planes that It’d take a Presidential order. The entire American air lift fleet was tasked. (!)
After Carter blew tactical and strategic surprise — the entire gambit was re-characterized as merely an ‘exercise.’
—–
The above reality is why to this day North Korea is rabidly paranoid about American military intervention. With the USSR gone the Kim family business is entirely at the mercy of Red China and home-made nukes.
“Do you want to bomb Iran & start World War 3 & Armageddon?”
No.
Do you want to bomb Iran and be swallowed by a black hole? Nah me neither. I don’t want to bomb Iran and start a zombie outbreak, nor do I want to bomb Iran and be eaten alive by slimy worms. I just want to bomb Iran and prevent it from obtaining nuclear weapons. I think the Israelis would want that too.
There is no reason to fear either zombie outbreaks or world war 3. None of those thinks are related to bombing Iran.
Just breathe deeply, you’llbe ok.
outstanding
Not so fast! I saw a big Humvee in the Oregon mountains jammed with antennas and biohazard markers. Big letters on the doors and rear – “Zombie Outbreak Response Vehicle”. Didn’t know if they were referring to Obama or Khanamei voters, though.
Very interesting.
Rühle’s thesis of possible 2010 Iranian test in North Korea is obviously speculative.
Still, if it was true, it would fit very well the global picture of Iranian nuclear program, and in fact make it more coherent:
- Iran is supposed to have had several thousands of centrifugating units operational for a few years now: 1,600 in activity by 2002 / 4,000 or 7,000 by 2009 according to various reports
- Even assuming complete failure at mastering the “P2″ advanced design of centrifuges (performance = 5 SWU / year) and Iran having sticked with “P1″ basic design (performance = 2 SWU /year), this would still amount to about 20 to 50 thousands SWU performed in Iranian enrichment plants (SWU is “separative work unit”, the unit of work in uranium enrichment)
- Enriching 1 kg of uranium to military-grade level costs 227 SWU, and a nuclear bomb can be made with 7 to 21 kg of military-grade uranium, depending on the builder’s technical proficiency. Meaning that material for an uranium bomb needs 1,600 to 4,800 SWU
- Even assuming large losses in productivity as a result of “Stuxnet” Israeli computer virus, even allowing for a fair amount of uranium enrichment devoted to preparing fuel for nuclear power stations, even assuming that Iranian bomb builders need 21 kg enriched uranium per bomb, the conclusion seems unescapable that Iran has already enriched uranium for at least one, probably several, possibly a fair number of nuclear bombs
Look up also: http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-4184286,00.html (Israeli MI chief: “Iran can produce 4 bombs”)
>>>>> Which leaves only two possible interpretations:
- Either Iranian government is fully sincere that their one and only goal is to produce fuel for nuclear power… and they have produced a heck of a lot low enriched uranium
- Or Iranian government is less than fully sincere, they pursue both civilian and military nuclear aims… and they already have material for probably several bombs
Which obviously makes it a very real possibility that they would have wanted to perform an unpublished nuclear test. North Korea has been a partner of Iran for a long time: Shahab-3, the bulk of Iranian medium-range ballistic missiles, are locally produced versions of No-Dong 1 North Korean design.
The fact that this test would have been less than 1 kt TNT does not necessarily mean it was a fizzle: it could have been small by design, so as to make it harder to detect and yet get useful information to confirm engineering assumptions.
Incidentally, secret cooperation between aspiring / recent nuclear powers is nothing new:
- It’s De Gaulle’s 1958 return to power in France that stopped German nuclear weapon program, until then conducted under “European” disguise in secret cooperation with France and Italy (De Gaulle is supposed to have privately explained: “The bodies are not yet cold”, and also: “It’s a casus belli for the Russians”)
- Israeli observers are said to have been present at the first French nuclear test, while France was building Dimona the Israeli nuclear weapons factory
- The Vela incident (1979) was very probably the accidental detection by US satellite of a clandestine Israeli-South African nuclear test
- Pakistan is generally assumed to have had a Chinese design as first design for a nuclear bomb
- etc…
Of course the logic of nuclear deterrence is universal, and Iran would be highly vulnerable to Israeli nuclear reprisal, if nuclear-tipped Iranian missiles struck Israeli cities. That being said, Iranian government rhetoric about puting an end to the State of Israel branded a “cancerous tumor” is understandably getting on the nerves of many an Israeli.
The short version being: “Israelis don’t want to run a 10% risk to be 100% destroyed”
HOW not to run that risk, when a potential opponent already has produced fissile material for several bombs, is the relevant question.
Israelis might choose to run the (many) risks of an attack uncoordinated with America, in the hope of destroying for many years the possibility for Iran to add on its arsenal, calculating that a country with a couple operational warheads would need to stand much quieter than a country with several dozens of them.
If Iran already had the Bomb, that would explain all the tiptoeing around.
John Loftus reported a far higher number of centrifuges
some years ago; our satellites can hear their supersonic whine.
Plus, Iran has been buying bits of the old Soviet nuclear arsenal, for years, from Belarus, Ukraine, and Khazakstan. I imagine they’ve had a deal worked out with the bad half of the Pakistani ISI for some time now. Lest we forget, Afghanistan is rich in uranium. And lots of Soviet scientists were pretty hungry after the wall fell.
We don’t detect a ‘supersonic whine’…
What REALLY happens is that uranium stays radioactive even while its being spun at fantastic speed.
Even with its tremendously long half-life a trickle of atoms decay… even at the exact moment they are spinning AWAY and TOWARDS our detectors.
This causes their (radio-nuclide unique) emissions to be RED-SHIFTED or BLUE-SHIFTED — just a tad.
The exact same method has been employed to detect the mass at the center of the Andromeda Galaxy.
( Estimated to be 30,000,000 solar masses ! )
Since the Iranians must use arrays of parallel centrifuges the signal is proportional. It’s also quite directional — after a fashion. ( Here we’re talking about the red-shifting. )
The emissions of interest pass straight through solid rock, air and space. They also are feebly detected for the exact same reason. However, the longer and longer you can aim your detector at such an emitter — the better your signal becomes. It’s like a long exposure for a Hubble image.
While such detectors can be space-based, nothing stops one from using other platforms.
The contention that North Korea assisted with a nuclear test is valid considering reporting as far back as 2007. Con Coughlin reported on Iranina / North Korean cooperation in 2007, reporting that Iranians were present for North Korean testing.
Reporting has also placed North Koreans at both the Iranian and Syrian nuclear facilities.
While the author is correct it is difficult to nail down the “evidence” the trend line is absolutly clear.
Sorry kinda busy but I just wanted to know if David had any comment about this article from Wikileaks:
http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-4196367,00.html
I said this back when u did the “What Bugs Iran” essay over a year ago! David, do u honestly believe the Russian Emperor would let the Mullahs have nuclear weapons on his border? He doesnt want Israel to attack til they fulfill the latest nuclear technology orders which Iran has no doubt payed to dollar for! Look for a suspicious explosion, computer virus or attack AFTER the russian nuclear contracts r filled! I know u said u dont like to speculate on the different forces in Russia. But can u think of ANY reason or circumstance where Vlad the (Muslim) Impaler would allow such a thing.
BTW, Im not saying the Iranians dont want a bomb or that they r not working on it. Im sure they are. And im sure the Russians will PRETEND to help them in their aspirations. But I dont see it.
Viva La Putin!
There’s a saying here in Alaska where bear attacks are all too real that if two people are attacked by a bear, you don’t have to outrun the bear, you just have to outrun the other person. The crazy mullahs don’t much like the Russians and vice versa, going back a long way, but the mullahs dislike the US and Israel a WHOLE LOT more. The Russians can just sit back and watch the Iranians work their mischief with the US and Israel and then dispatch the Iranians at their convenience.
“Just a warning: if bears chase us, I’m tripping you”
> “do u honestly believe the Russian Emperor would let the Mullahs have nuclear weapons on his border”
The Russians, beginning the day after Putin was crowned, have been pleased to sell the Mullahs loads of their best conventional weapons. We’re not talking monkey versions as in the 1960s, but the real stuff. And the sales have increased dramatically in the last five+ years.
(i) I’d not assume that Evil Putin et al. look on Russia as anything more than a money making enterprise. Would national interest even apply in such cases?
(ii) There’s money to be made from the M.E. The trick is to keep things hot, but not to the point of boiling over. The more regional instability the more weapons the Iranian regime buys from Russia for itself, and for Syria and the Hezbis. And even better, regional instability in the M.E. means that Russian gas and oil can be sold more dearly. Russia profits from instability, while the U.S. profits from stability.
(iii) Would Russia also supply CBR? Remember how close Iraq’s nuke program was when their reactor was turned off by the U.S. Airforce in GW I? Russians worked with them step by step. And if one can believe what one reads, the Russians supplied Iraq with its chemical and biological technology as well. I’m inclined to think that it’s likely they continued to do so, too, perhaps even to the run up to GW II. At the very least, all Iraq needed to do was flip the switch on the Russian-designed and Russian-built factories to begin production. At any rate, and in general, probability increases to the extent that Russia and Iran share regional goals, in re which….
(iv) Russia was there at the birth of the Iranian regime, with massive assistance to the Leftist elements active to subvert the Shah. And even after the suppression of those leftist elements, relations remained fairly cordial. First gen IRGC trained in PFLP and PLO camps funded by Russia, and Khomeini himself stepped off the plane on return to Teheran with Andropov’s old friend, Yasir, right there at his side. Since 1979, have Iranians ever passed a Friday shouting Death to Russia? Iran hasn’t interfered in Russia’s bloodsports in the Caucasus, and only very rarely elsewhere. They sent men and arms to Bosnia and they funded some Shiite fronts in the Afghan war (or was that after the Soviet withdrawal?). Russia’s Islam problems are otherwise all Saudi funded.
(v) If Putin does have a grand strategy for the region, it’s at least keeping the U.S. out of his backyard. So if you’re Putin, and weighing the options, it might well make sense to work closely with Iran, even to help it acquire enough adult weapons to be a real threat to U.S. interests. Along the same lines, there’s what the Reds and their regional Green allies used to like to call the American imperialist colony in the Levant. The Soviets deliberately fomented regional war against it in the late 1960s, and even actively participated and was ready to do far more, as now seems likely. Is it possible that Putin wants a do-over of the ’67 war. Or would that be a do-do-over? Russian planning and Russian arms didn’t do so well in 1973, either.
At any rate, while the U.S. likes to thinks of Islamic revolutionaries as Islamo-fascists, some of those revolutionaries were and are leftists (Khomeini, Hekmatyar, and even elements in the MB). If we still had Kremlin watchers we might understand such matters better. Unfortunately, they retired when the U.S. unilaterally declared victory in the Cold War.
I wish more would wake up to your understanding: Islamism = Islam + Communism.
As in Yasir and the rest of the feral breed.
As for belief systems — Islamism = Shintoism — an almost perfect match.
When you reflect upon Shintoism, then Islamism; you’ll fall back in your chair.
Interesting. But, if I was an enterprising, Machiavellian, chess playing Iranian Mullah in charge who could no longer sell his oil while loosing geopolitical clout and desperately seeking nukes, I’d have my minions going long on the oil futures market, and then covertly mine the straight of Hormuz just to do a few big tankers. I understand the US Navy has sold all of its mine sweepers, but, regardless, I suspect Brent would go to 400 dollars and the Dow to 5000 on the oil spike. And then there is that fragile economy thing with an election coming up and nine dollar gasoline–which didn’t work out to well for Ford back in ’76. And of course, the insolvent Euro banks surely wouldn’t have to honor those CDS contracts over “voluntary” haircuts for the Greeks and the rest of the pigs? Apparently they must mean the army sense of “voluntary.” I wonder what that makes the value of a worthless insurance contract, and how would that zero value impact bond prices to cover the default risk? Historically after every oil spike the oil prices go back to fifty dollars or less, coincidentally screwing over those wonderful Saudis of whom the Iranians just love to hate over theological principles. Interesting times.
Nice overview of the Financial war campaign.
The communists (American included) have added Tier 1 finance to their arseal of government unions, law, education, and media- and foreign allies.
Thanks for helping Thenachash and Art Chance flesh out the meaning of “useful idots”. Suckers!
You’re wrong, wrong, wrong in so many ways.
First: the USN uses minesweeping helicopters and drones — ships were abandoned decades ago. Expect robotic helicopters to entirely ruin Iran’s naval mining ‘option.’
Second: Iran is staggeringly dependent upon the Strait for its own food supply. Start thinking just-in-time food distribution. Yeah, they’re ALL bluster.
Third: actually mining the Strait would cause the USN to lose it’s chains and go for regime-kill ASAP. Tehran would alienate all of her customers — to especially include India, Japan, Korea and Red China. They’d all be furious.
Fourth: Iran wants THE PRIZE. Namely, the Shi’ite lands dominated by Sunnis just across the Gulf. Her gambit is to go Danzig on them — using al Quds wet operations to stand up ‘rebel forces’ that topple Sunni emirs — establishing new links in the Shi’ite Crescent. In the fulness of time, al Quds seizes the oil provinces of KSA, which are ancient Shi’ite lands going all the way back to the split.
Fifth: with the Prize in hand, Tehran figures to sit pretty and collect jizra of global proportions.
Sixth: with such funding Tehran figures to replicate the ICBM power of Moscow. The need to march tank armies is gone. Al Quds + atomics + oil solves all problems.
Seventh: Take out America. The anti-Israeli oratory was always a mis-direction. The mullahs are playing for global stakes — just like any Bond villain.
Iran is staggeringly dependent upon the Strait for its own food supply.
And half their distillate supply (gasoline, diesel, etc.); I’ve read the other half is produced at one refinery complex in Iran….
When Israel ‘apparently’ destroyed the Korean-Syrian nuclear facility in northeastern Syria in 2007 (?), one state commented. That was North Korea, which took personal offense and called Israel several names (can’t recall them specifically, maybe because we get called a lot of names).
As a commenter wrote above, the trend line is clear. So too is the inevitable action on our part.
And as someone else wrote further up in the Talkback, the effect of US policy has been to be a drag on Israeli attack options and to help the Iranians consolidate as much as possible. Both Bush and Obama bear responsibility for this, though with Obama it’s obvious that all of his instincts go towards neutering Israel, worse.
Whst worries me is an American response- against Israel.
That makes two of us. Or as others have noted, our carrier task forces seem well situated to spoil an Israeli attack on Iran.
Well, I am cynical but I find that scenario a bit implausible for two reasons – one, huge political earthquake in the US, two, unpredictable Israeli response.
If our existence is threatened in such a way – again, I find that unrealistic – you just never know.
Indeed, but Team Obama doesn’t have to use the carriers, just threaten to use them, and Israel’s problem becomes that much more complicated and risky.
Spengler, Great stuff as always. Here is in my opinion the bombshell (no pun intended), should this story be correct: is it remotely possible that U.S. intelligence agencies, and of course the president, didn’t know about this? And if they did know, or suspect, have they been sitting on this for political reasons, i.e. to prevent the need for some sort of “response” prior to November elections?
I doubt the US knew about this. The beauty of Ruehl’s conjecture is that it doesn’t have to be true, but only possible, to show Obama up as an imbecile. There is no way for the US to know the precise stage of development of an Iranian bomb.
I am iranian and do not like my religious Monarchy system in my country,
,as Iran has been sanctioned and isolated for such a long Time Americans and western people have the least data on the pessimisem side about Iranians.In the region of middle easterns who likes the TYrant Israel?!! ah,USA Yes ,which is faraway from this region,and like any other country only shave his own benefit in the region,USA should think about his own benefit in the long term!!ok u attacked Iran and every thing is solved for short term ,then after a while the same hatred and even more will be aroused toward Usa and israel,they always consider others people brains’ size as peanut,This is what a real dictator is.USA and israel hold Nuclear Heads and others should not have it,Ok ,this is not good for all peoples on earth to have the destructive side of the Atomic Energy,but with or without Atomic Bomb ,First Usa should use his power to settle ISrael and palestinian conflict over captured areas by pressing on Israel.But USA prefers to have Issrael an untamed kid of her own in the region.
Obama seems to be positioning the White House to say that the only hard evidence or proof is either an actual test or a nuclear attack. And even a test, they seem to be leaving some space for in that they really don’t accept anyone’s evidence or statements but their own. To me this only says one thing. Obama fully accepts that Iran will have a nuclear weapon in his second term. He fully accepts that Iran will become another Eurasian nuclear power and the regional superpower in West Asia with dominance from the Mediterranean cost of Syria to the Afghan border. And that he’s quietly reached a detente with Iran not to test a weapon, make a statement about a weapon or attack anyone with a weapon until his second term. The carrot and the stick are obvious. Use a bomb now before November and the US will attack. Use a bomb after January 2013 and you can do more or less whatever you like.
The upshot is Obama will walk away from the region in 2013 and leave it to local players to resolve or not. Since Turkey is obsessed with its own whining about the NATO radar base and how the Evil Jewish Menace ™ might get their hands on its data, Obama will likely punt and turn the entire operations over to them w.o. oversight. This guarantees that Iran won’t be allowed to lob nukes into the Balkans or eastern Europe since it would be hard for Turkey to admit they intentionally failed at the one stated purpose of the installation. Israel, Saudi Arabia or anywhere else Turkey isn’t interested in, all bets are off.
My impression is that there are no grownups in this administration. Leon Panetta at DOD? An accountant whose job is to cut the budget. Hillary at State? And what is David Petraeus doing at CIA? Meanwhile McBama’s Three Witches (Susan Rice, Samantha Power, Valerie Jarrett) continue to beguile him. This is junior high school student government running the United States.
Petraeus’ appointment as DCI suggests to me that BHO wants them to focus on drone counter-terrorism operations and similar activity. Apparently many CIA intelligence officers will now have job descriptions which could be filled by competent Army warrant officers and noncoms.
Seems like BHO is just not that into strategic intelligence involving China, Russia, India, Iran, etc.
Maybe we could place the intelligence officers with drones, too.
The policy is to contain Islamic ‘extremism.’ There is no plan to contain Islam per se. Obama is the classic moral relativist – or he is indeed masking (barely) a deep affinity with Islam itself (the ‘beautiful’ religion).
The denial is deep and extends well beyond the man himself. The Media is reflexively and successfully predatory and efficient in stopping any discussion of policies that might lead to something like victory. But they can’t plan for victory when they don’t believe there is war – whereas the Islamic thinkers and theologians are committed to global war as indispensable to bring ‘peace’ to mankind.
CSG – I suspect a few cubicles in suburban DC may already contain one or two donut sensing drones.
“David P. Goldman
I doubt the US knew about this. The beauty of Ruehl’s conjecture is that it doesn’t have to be true, but only possible, to show Obama up as an imbecile. There is no way for the US to know the precise stage of development of an Iranian bomb.”
And the beauty of the ‘Pakistan transfers a bomb’ theory is that the mere possibility suggests massive bombing of Iran to stop a nuke being developed would be, from a threshold point of view, largely in vain…unless one is foolish enough to believe the propaganda that bombs falling on Iranians will prompt them to spontaneously overthrow their rulers. It didn’t help Iraqis overthrow Saddam in 91′.
And I’d like to see John’s sources for the massive conventional arms transfer from Russia to Iran.
At least there’s one forum left at PJM, ironically perhaps the most outspoken on hitting Iran, that nonetheless still doesn’t censor voices of foreign policy sanity. Ledeen, Preston? Forget it.
David,
I had in mind Trofimo and Nemetz, “Russia: Tipping the Balance in the Middle East,” Journal of Slavic Military Studies, 22:367–382, 2009. The article can be accessed for free at fmso.leavenworth.army.mil/documents/Tipping-the-balance.pdf
One thing I’d never seen before is the extent to which Iran is now paying for Syria’s purchases. No doubt the Syrians are reciprocating with more than just free passage of freight from the Damascus airport to Lebanon. Assad will not be hanging from a lamppost anytime soon.
Contrary to the authors, I’m just not convinced that the scale of Russia’s sales and tech transfers (including nuclear) can be explained by profit motive, or a desire to keep oil and gas prices high. The added cost of a strong — and traditionally implacable — rival on Russia’s southern border is too grave. If there are other motives, they’d be what? It’s hard not to think of the Soviets and 1967. And then, well … Ginor and Remez’s Foxbats over Dimona (Yale, 2007) is pretty dang compelling. The Cold War’s over, right?!
Apples and oranges. The first addresses our ability to know when Iran might get a bomb; the second presumes that we have no leverage to discourage Pakistan from handing a bomb to Iran. There is no reason they should. Why should Pakistan want to give up its nuclear monopoly in the region? The solidarity of Islamic radicals against the Great Satan? This belongs at a fan fiction site, not here.
Which of the following atomic nations admitted that they were seeking the bomb — or had been well detected by others?
America
USSR
UK
France
Red China
India
Pakistan
Israel
South Africa
Nationalist China
The answer is none.
AFAIK only South Africa has dismantled her atomic bomb program.
Nationalist China gets no ink – but why would any nation build at great expense IRBMs in limited numbers?
It answers itself.
And so it goes with Iran.
——
As for testing. It must be the world’s worst kept secret: Iran already has a perfect set of blue prints for a weapon far more advanced than Little Boy or Fat Man.
She’s building to a late 1950s design — which was revealed to the West years ago.
So Iran, like Israel, doesn’t need to proof test her designs.
The only technical issues she’s concerned about are atomic triggers. Those are pretty touchy. We already know that Iran has built the specialized facilities for testing such triggers. Again, Iran is using established methods. So when she builds a given facility its use is fulsomely obvious to those expert in the art.
The upshot is that our king spends more time lying to us than he ever could to our enemies.
> “She’s building to a late 1950s design — which was revealed to the West years ago.”
The A.Q. Khan Complete Kit for building the Bomb in your mum’s kitchen?
If so, is the main evidence for this the Libyan papers?
Well, “the Libyan papers” were reported to include a PRC uranium implosion device with a design yield of 44kT, with details going down to the factory floor level on how much torque to apply to each bolt and what type of thread locker (AKA Loctite in the US) to use.
I disagree however on the need to test: until you do it for real, you just don’t know for sure (e.g. was the DPRK’s first test in 2006 a fizzle or something else?). An untested device wouldn’t satisfy the requirements of either being able to credibly threaten using them or a sneak attack on well armed nuclear states like the Little or Great Satan (Israel or the US).
Thank you. I’d always imagined that Libya had something other than Pakistan’s Chinese files.
So, in sum, our good friends in Saudi finance our good friends in PK’s bomb program, PK uses that money to buy Chinese help and supplies (transported with gifted American C-130s), and then PK distributes the same to the two regimes that most enjoy killing Americans. Both regimes are old Soviet satellites, too, and Russia continues to assisting the sole survivor, in their nuclear effort.
Meanwhile, back in PK, the father of the Islamic Bomb belongs to the same infernal sect that was hiding KSM, and from which the ISI (at a minimum) sprang, the ISI being the same as created the Taliban and version 1.0 of AQ. And while all this was taking place, no one in the U.S. whose job it is to worry about such things cared to notice what was happening, or if they did, cared to stop it.
I sometimes wish I was a drinking man. Might make it easier to discern allies and enemies.
The ‘awakening’ — the realization as to just how far along Iran was towards an atomic bomb — came SOLEY because of Iranian leakers.
The CIA/ Mossad, et. al. were entirely blindsided.
In the modern era micro-dots are out. Thumbdrives and laptops are in.
And then there are those high-ranking defectors with very big mouths who’ve bailed on the mullahs.
For some reason these ex-generals get no ink when Iranian intentions come up for discussion.
And then there’s the tale of the Clenis feeding Iran a doctored design for atomics. The story is that it was so ham-handed that Russian talent on staff corrected the blue prints straight off. ( The mullahs wanted their prints peer reviewed. )
——
I’ve stated for years that Iran has atomic devices. These are in the manner of ‘Mike’ our first super bomb — detonated at Bikini — and whose proximity in time caused the two-piece bathing suit to gain a moniker.
I once posited an American course of action to topple the mullahs quite some years ago. It was a six-point bullet list, kind of quirky. So you can imagine my surprise when 30 months later I read that Iran is purportedly countering American plans to topple their regime — listing my bullet list in rank order — nothing added nothing omitted. Now what are the odds for such coincidence?
And on that list I noted that Iran is vulnerable to amphibious moves against Baluchistan. It’s one of the most vacant stretches of desert on this planet. It vies with the Atacama as the driest place on Earth.
The obvious counter-move would be to place immobile atomic mines there.
Indeed, defensive atomics could be well placed all over Iran, in those places any invader might contemplate staging his forces before a bold ground campaign. It’s not as if Iran is short of suicide troops. They’ll always have some warm bodies to throw the switch like any decent Bond villain.
Throwing in some atomic dummies would cause pause.
——
Worries of such a gambit must have taken the ground game off the table during the Bush years.
——
And we all know that Little Boy detonations are so straight forward that prior testing is unnecessary.
Such devices are wasteful of atomic explosive. It is understood that Iran is already proving up single-point safe implosion designs. They’ve already built a custom facility in exactly the same manner as established powers to de-bug their trigger — THE tricky thing about the whole design.
( FYI: the bulk of the early atomic tests revolved entirely around triggers. They demand super-precision working with metals that have far from ideal machining properties.
When America established atomic bomb technology the digital computer was newly born. Today Iran has access to endless computational power for a pittance and bread crumbs to follow.
It’s now all too easy to get to the Bomb. )
And we all know that Little Boy detonations are so straight forward that prior testing is unnecessary.
Or rather, after much much more complicated Gadget proved to work (the first plutonium implosion device we lit off in the Trinity test), we were quite sure Little Boy would work. And if it hadn’t, it wouldn’t have been the end of the world, so to speak, we still had the 2nd weaponized plutonium device and at least third on the way if needed (we know the Demon Core was at Los Alamos no later than August 21st, 1945 so fissionables were available).
It’s now all too easy to get to the Bomb.
Sort of. It requires at least 3 things: knowing critical masses (something that can only be determined empirically), some very serious engineering which can be reduced with procured plans (much less for gun assembly, though, but that requires a lot more fissionables), and the big stumbling block, which requires the resources of a nation state, obtaining the fissionables in sufficient quantity.
We’re lucky there; enriching uranium is large scale undertaking, breeding plutonium requires a reactor where fuel can be quickly harvested (if it’s in for very long the plutonium isotope mix makes it worthless) and then some very nasty chemical engineering because the materials are so radioactive.
Thanks for the reference to the Trofino/Nemets paper on Russian arms deliveries to Iran. From the footnotes it seems overly dependent on Debka.
I was surprised at the Debka cites, too. On the other hand, they’re only for the discussion of the capabilities of the Pantsyr-S1E and Khrizantema systems, at pp. 377-78 — and the authors’ main sources for those purchases are Jane’s and Haaretz. The article’s main sources are otherwise news and industry standards, including Persian, Chinese, and Russian ones.
I’d note, too, that the article, itself peer reviewed and from a reputable publisher, was thought significant enough to be purchased and reprinted by the U.S. Army’s Foreign Military Studies Office (formerly, Soviet Army Studies Office) — and they’re pretty selective with the reprint of contributions not originally published in U.S. military venues, especially when it comes to Russia.
As usual when reading your work I am now better informed, and for that I think you. What I’d love to read now from you is an analysis of the after-effects of an Israeli attack on Iranian nuclear sites. It can be done, and perhaps it must be done; so what can we expect when the next shoe drops?
There are lots of studies available. I’m not going to get into the scenarios just now.
At a conceptual level then, are you convinced that Iran would in fact seek to attack American cities (as they have so often threatened to do)? Given that America is not seeking a geo-political advantage over either country in supporting Israel in diminishing the Iranian threat, would China and Russia react militarily to an Israeli strike? Or would they be satisfied in UN cage rattling?
No-one who is not suffering from hallucinations thinks that China and Russia would do anything but blabber about a US military strike on Iran.
And should we expect only blabbering from Iran as well? After all, their economy seemingly won’t support a military response of any size greater than some asymetric attacks. They’ve threatened attacks on shipping in the straits, and so is that what you would expect? Or, is your view we should expect those attacks in Tel Aviv or in Washington/New York?
Things are about as bad today as they have been since the beginning of the nuclear age. The White House treats lethal danger to the world as a political football. Obama seems to live in a wishful fantasy world. Within 24 hours of telling AIPAC how serious he was, and “I don’t bluff,” the White House had dropped six contradictory stories to appeal to all their constituencies. There is no moral clarity, and no moral seriousness from this White House. In a sane world this would be considered pathological. But it is totally amazing how many “world leaders” today are unfit for their responsibilities.
In all those ways Obama is unquestionably the worst US president in history. Now it’s always possible that behind the scenes they are doing something effective. I seriously doubt it. Instead, Obama was directly responsible for demanding that Hosni Mubarak resign, which set off the “Arab Spring,” which is benefiting only the Muslim Brotherhood and the Salafi extremists. The whole Arab world is in turmoil. Turkey is back to “neo-Ottomanism.” Iran was allowed to slip back into the Dark Ages by Jimmy Carter and his dreadfully blind NSC Advisor.
The defense of civilization now rests on the Israelis. Everybody else has copped out, including the president of the United States, who is always ready to blame others for his gross incompetence and lack of seriousness.
Well, something is going to blow soon. We have no idea what will happen then, EXCEPT that Obama and the butt-licking media will blame George W. Bush. Or Rush Limbaugh. Or oil, SUV’s, capitalism, and other moronic scapegoats.
When WWII broke out FDR essentially chopped the top off US military ranks. It was tough and unfair, but it brought up a new generation of military and intelligence leaders who were not stuck in the past. When 9/11 happened nobody got fired. That’s the difference between serious leadership and stuck-in-the-mud CYA bureaucrats. That failure to clean house will come back to haunt us.
You must be referring to the super-promotion of George C. Marshall to the top. ( From one-star to four in a single presidential bound.)
For those unaware: General Marshall proved to FDRs satisfaction that he was the only man who could absolutely charm the heck out of Congress — particularly the appropriations committees.
Since that was the PRIMARY duty, literally beyond all others, of the US Army’s top man it was an easy promotion to make.
The fact that other, more senior commanders took the hint was entirely secondary.
It didn’t hurt that General Pershing’s recommendation would’ve been stellar: Col. Marshall was his Chief of Staff during WWI. He surely told FDR about Marshall’s prodigious paperwork skills.
( A trait he held in common with DD Eisenhower. Ike kept teams of secretaries busy. His output is so huge it’s a library in itself.)
Marshall never lost his touch. Congress ultimately gave him an open checkbook — which is how the Manhattan Project was funded.
—–
Col. Kenneth Nichols ran Oak Ridge. He recalled with great amusement the complete puzzlement of the massive labor force. Because everything was on a need to know basis — and work proceeded around the clock — straight through the holidays — everyone involved thought it was the ultimate FDR boondoggle. For nothing ever came out the other end! ( The actual deliveries were top, top, top secret — right down to using briefcases with chained handcuffs. )
Senator Truman received news of this staggering folly, and started to work up an investigation. So he gets a short phone call from General Marshall: “Just drop it. End your investigation immediately.” ( on my authority )
So when the Bomb leveled Hiroshima the Col. Nichols went on the intercom to announce that the Oak Ridge crowd had just won the war against Japan.
Later, he picked up two stars — and eventually established the PWR division of Westinghouse — and the nuclear navy. (Rickover didn’t do it alone.)
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