It’s true that we almost always see what we want or expect to see, but my recent trip to Geneva (I have a piece on it in today’s Washington Times) certainly more than ratified my view on Iran: The mullahs have as much interest in an outreach to America as I do in spending the rest of my life in Ulan Bator. Otherwise they wouldn’t have allowed Ahmadinejad to make his recent racist rant and rave at the UN, which no doubt contributes to increased doubts about rapprochement with Iran even from the Democrats.
Here’s something else I observed, which is a bit scarier: Consciously or unconsciously, Ahmadinejad knows that if he doesn’t have nukes (or continue to develop them) no one will pay attention to him. He’ll just be another tinhorn semi-dictator from a marginal state. His narcissism couldn’t tolerate that. So the chances of his abandoning the pursuit of nuclear weapons from a personal psychological point of view alone is virtually null. But I suppose we all know that.
“But I suppose we all know that.”
Only some us, alas, know that. Unfortunately, we are seeing a repeat of the Hitler phenomenon. Many people during the thirties so desperately wanted to avoid war they easily allowed themselves to be deluded that the Fuhrer wasn’t really dangerous. Adolph Hitler should have easily been marginalized. He could have been pushed out of power, with little difficulty, by no later than 1936. Iran should not even be remotely a threat to the modern world. There is no logical reason to allow it to possess nuclear weapons.
Russia encourages Iran, to make trouble for us now. When Iran has nuclear weapons and starts exporting its Islamic Revolution to the borders of the former USSR, then Russia will want help.
Roger…
love you posts, but what’s wrong with Ulan Bator?
Actually, my daughter and I want to visit Ulan Bator and see the Genghis Khan memorial. His portrait is on their money. There are lots of tourists but I wouldn’t want to reside there permanently, either.
Ulaanbaatar is makes many fine tourist destination, not to be pissed off on by cosmopolitan urban city man like Simon Roger L. You must come see for self reduce rate at Temuujun’s Guesthouse. Great feast of yak waiting on you and all the many pleasures of Great Mongolia.
Well, Roger, you will have to take your family to Ulan Bator now… I would go too if they actually find Genghis Khan’s tomb.
Anyway, back in the 30s, the opinion of our society’s leaders were that ‘there would be no more war’ because (a) the last one was so horrible and (b)air power would kill everyone.
My parents sat through movies with ‘news items’ showing marching Germans and slaughter in China by more marching Japanese, all in lock step, and, when the war finally came, my father was on an armed merchant cruiser, loaded up with a wooden gun (so it would terrify Japanese subs then lurking on Canada’s west coast).
Anyway, I don’t think much will be done about the Persians until they bomb Vienna. We all hope, of course, that Israel will do the dirty job for us (and then we can descry Israeli militarism if Israel succeeds; and have long sensitive self-criticism sessions if it fails and we are ‘forced’ to take in Israeli refugees) and make Teheran into glass, but..
Garunda Zhombre Kahn: As a place to visit and meet the people would be interesting, however, I agree with Mr. Simon, spending the rest of my life their would not be an easy way of life to adapt too for anyone brought up in cosmopolitan surroundings. Looking at all the beautiful artistic buildings more than likely built by the Mongols through history, I wonder about the Russian buildings that seem to lack the beauty, would be nice if some of todays natives in Ulan Bator were allowed to do some art work on them, or would this be regarded on as an insult, which I would not want to do.Blessed Wishes
To live long fruitful healthfull life of joy is to live in Ulaanbaator like to live in Naples Italy only without sea.
I applaud your efforts to keep this story alive Roger. I notice that it’s pretty much disappeared from view. Embarrassing news about the UN might sell newspapers but that’s not the business the press is in anymore. Durban and Geneva certainly proved that old chestnut “first time tragedy, second time farce”. At least nobody got killed which is a change from most UN endeavors Thanks for being there and reporting on it, that took guts.
Like dumpy urban schools with pseudo Greek columns, or new rich with gaudy displays of fairly common luxury items, so the forms of being a power are, for the mentally weak, the thing it self.
We are still animals, with animal signaling culture. Nuclear weapons make people take you seriously. If not, North Korea would just be a rock pile Darfur.
Now, Roger, once the Iranians realize the full impact of Obama’s offer to let them join the community of responsible nations, they’ll drop their weapons program like a hot potato. And if they don’t, well, he’ll hate to do it but he will unleash the full might of UN resolutions. Who could withstand that?
Why do Democrats (the McGovernite New Democratic Party, that is) so regularly beat up on our allies (Hillary Clinton getting tough with Israel), while turning on all their considerable charm towards the regimes that despise us the most (Ahmadinejad, Chavez, Castro)?
Could it be that their post-nationalist sense of America as a global sinner makes them suspicious of anyone that would take our side? Do they naturally find themselves simpatico only with those who feel contempt for America?
Is this some bizarre version of the Marxian (Groucho) joke about not joining any club that would have us as a member?
Your theory is that the Iranian president is such a pathological narcissist that he has no concern for anything besides getting the attention of as many people as possible, and he views increasing his political power as the best path to that goal.
It’s too bad we don’t have anyone in government who could understand someone like that.
bgates, it is so difficult to focus through hubris-tinted glasses.
“It’s true that we almost always see what we want or expect to see”
This is highly tangential, but did you know that there is a specific Event-Related brain Potential (ERP/ERBP) that occurs when you sense something unexpected? In other words, seeing the unexpected has a common, detectable electrical response in all healthy brains. I remember the surprise wave occurs 220ms after the stimulus is presented. Recognition I recall is quicker, at like 180ms.
One could easily imagine that we see what we expect to see because recognition processes faster than surprise and usually beats it to making the first impression.