What always interests me about stories like this one in the London Timesonline, detailing alleged Israeli plans to take out the uranium enrichment plant in Natanz, Iran, is who told the reporter and why. Almost always, this is not revealed. Of course it is common sense that the Israelis and the Americans have such plans, quite possibly other countries as well, but who reminded the Times’ Uzi Mahnaimi of this truism in the last few days and why did the Timesonline decide to publish just now? It’s interesting that this is all hot on the heels of the Americans finally “acquiescing” to the European plan, which is essentially to bribe the Iranians into staying away from nukes – a plan which took an almost immediate nose dive when the Mullahs rejected it. Perhaps the intention of this article was to get the attention of those same mullahs. Or perhaps some other game is being played. When you read an article like this, you don’t know what or whom to believe.
It’s kind of the opposite of reading Omar and Mohammed, men who write with an extraordinary concern for humanity. Now they are telling us how many Iraqis are getting fed up with the Assad clique in Syria and acting upon it themselves. This is heartening news indeed if you think it through.
UPDATE: Here’s another article filled with unnamed “officials” and “diplomats”. Is it truth or fiction? Beats me. But if it’s fiction, they should write better.
AND: Soxblog has more on the latest Pulp… excuse me… Times Fiction.
It’s really astounding how much one’s worldview changes when you aren’t dependent on the professional press for a lot of your information, isn’t it?
OK, we made our multilateral gesture. Now let’s start staging the B-1′s to Diego Garcia…
Well, it’s so timely. And, Debka is reporting that the USA and Israel are holding a “specialized” war game that’s going to last one month. And, it’s designed to test the Arrow Missile Defense system against the “Shaheeeeeeeb 3″ … which is Iran’s operational missile.
By the way, while Iran is first threatening to “get” a functioning A-Bomb, the USA has tested itself well beyond this. And, I’d guess, so has Israel.
Iran, to save what it’s got so far, has also gone deep, deep underground. As if you can survive down their with out oxygen.
I’ve heard the big bombs we used in Afhanistan where not A-bombs. But they were detonated very high up, sucking the oxygen out of the air. Which is why everyone believed Osama got creamed while he was living in those caves. Who knows?
But I’m not sure Iran knows what could come. Especially if we’re talking stuff that explodes in the stratosphere. All the radar gets is the noise of the KA-BOOM. And, the sucking sound you hear could deplete the oxygen; even of their generators are working overtime.
Not that I know,anything. This is purely conjecture.
As to Sharon’s government, it still needs to pass the 2005 budget. By March 31st. Or there’s a need of a down and dirty quick election within 90 days. “Ma-hair, Ma-hair,” as they say in Hebrew. And, I can’t wait to see if Arik Sharon would fart in the general direction of LIkud. ANd, pull a unity list out of his pants; where he combines ministers HE WANTS. While the Likud Central Committee chokes on the list of extremists they try to run with …
Shinui loses his second in command to Sharon’s new party. ANd, Peres, Foad, and Chaim Ramon,leaving Dahlia Itzik at Labor (in labor?) to fend for herself. What makes you think this can’t happen? Oh. I know. The budget passes at the last minute. Okay. Whatever.
Debka has been hinting as this scenario for quite a while. It makes a lot of sense, but would certainly complicate the middle east even more.
As far as bombs that suck up oxygen, that’s a myth. Fuel Air weapons, which is what Carol is referring to, kill people up close by hitting them with overpressure which destroys, among other things, their lungs. Hence they may act as if there is no oxygen in the atmosphere, but that really isn’t the case.
Caves are a different issue, but tunnels can be relatively easily protected against this stuff.
I doubt we have the ability to destroy the Iranian effort by air attack alone (although a long term campaign to tke out all tunnel entrances could be amusing – if we had the intelligence).
This is why this other plan makes sense – you blow up the area of underground facilities (basically, you take out the AAA and any guard and garrison troops using air power, then fly in commandos and technical specialists to sort out what’s left.
I have a friend who was once dropped into Northern Ireland (as a technician – what a way to first meet a parachute) in order to help SOF types (SAS) identify suspected parts of a high capability missile.
Roger,
It always amuses me when the “High ranking Official” or “Unimpeachable Source” is used to carry the weight of the article. And it seems it is always an article criticle of the Bush Adminstration.
Also, in the NY Times article you linked to, I love this paragraph:
Dr. Araji said he had no evidence regarding where the equipment had gone. But his account raises the possibility that the specialized machinery from the arms establishment that the war was aimed at neutralizing had made its way to the black market or was in the hands of foreign governments.
So the NY Times can take the liberty of assuming these materials had traveled to foriegn governments, but the thought of WMD’s making the same trip is totally discounted.
Gotta love the Times.
Let’s see – the looters were highly organized and knew just what they wanted and how to get it. Doesn’t sound like “looters” to me – more like the people who ran these facilities in the first place. Also, I wonder how they know that all this “looting” took place after the invasion? How much of it took place while the U.S. forces were forced to stand around in Kuwait waiting for the U.N. to act? The NY Times seems to have no interest in asking such questions.
I’m hoping that the Iranians will take the threat of military action seriously and will back down.
During the American hostage crisis the Iranians held onto the hostages for many months while Jimmy Carter dithered. However, as soon as Reagan was elected president, they released the hostages, fearing military action.
If there has to be military action, I hope that it’s the US that takes it. Israeli action could be catastrophic this time, both for Arab perceptions and for the polarising effect that it would undoubtably have on a hypocritical Europe.
Having seen what children can do to an empty house and what an unofficial wrecking crew can do to an old factory,I’m surprised anything is left standing.
The first suspects are those that installed the equipment,local scrap dealers ,casual thieves and vandals.
There are plenty of thieves who specialise in plant and machinery who wouldn’t think twice about stealing a full grown bulldozer,cranes etc.Some specialise in non-ferrous metals,others in high grade steel,even burning the rubber off tyres and crushing concrete to get at it.
It is just surprising, that people find it surprising that this stuff has been stolen,they must lead very sheltered lives.
Outside the elite, Iraq was a dirt poor country,what did they think was going to happen to anything valuable?
I’ve heard the big bombs we used in Afhanistan where not A-bombs. But they were detonated very high up, sucking the oxygen out of the air. Which is why everyone believed Osama got creamed while he was living in those caves. Who knows?
Eh? The US didn’t use any A-bombs in Afghanistan. The cave-busters were a new type called a Thermobaric bomb. The Beeb has an article on them here- no garuntees that they got all the details right, but they’re right that it’s not an A-bomb.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/south_asia/1854371.stm
Roger,
Do you think for one moment the Mad Mullahs of Iran would seriously negotiate on the nuke issue?
See my comment over at Dr. Zin’s, Regime Change Iran:
Link Here
Bush has said time and again that Iran is not going to get nuclear weapons. As general rule he does not make idle threats. Maybe he will have to back off on this one but I think the point of going along with the Eruopeans is just away of proving to them that they are full of crap.
They always say that if the US would play ball, nations like Iran would bend to diplomatic pressure. So far I do not see a whole lot of bending going on.
The Iranians may want this weapon, even the reformers might want this weapon, but when the mullahs have said they will destroy Israel once they have the means to do so…it should not come as a surprise to anyone that Israel might want to prevent that.
I heard Mort Kondracke say on Beltway Boys that the Iranians import half their gasoline and the Bush adminstration might cut them off and break their economy. [It would make a lot more sense for them to build refineries than nukes.] This is the only kind of “diplomacy” that might work with the mullahs.
I read the NYT article and this is just weird. If the cops are at the door, what does the drug dealer do? He flushes the stuff. How hard is that to grasp?
If there was anything all that damned important at those sites, why had the UN not removed and secured it? And looting is about busting windows and stealing air conditioners. This sounds like sophisticated removal of equipment by people who knew what they were looking for and where to find it.
Remember the socalled “looting” of the National Museum?
I remember hearing stories about trucks going from Iraq to the Bekaa Valley in the weeks leading up to the invasion and immediately after it began. However, to attack the military for incompetence when they obviously could not be everywhere at once is just the usual Monday morning quarter backing we have been hearing for two long years.
Besides, Saddam had no weapons or anything else dangerous…Bush lied and people died. Everyone knows that.
European plan, which is essentially to bribe the Iranians into staying away from nukes
It was, in my opinion, stupid to try this with the North Koreans. It’s insane to try it again.
The Israeli’s bombed Saddam’s nuclear facilities that’s why we were able to go in there and finish him off knowing full well he couldn’t nuke anybody.
Bush said Iran would not have nukes. That’s good enough for me. The mullahs and their nukes are history and it doesn’t matter who gets the credit.
The left can just add one more outrage to their list and then learn to live with it.
…but I think the point of going along with the Eruopeans is just away of proving to them that they are full of crap.
That, too. But he’s also said that Iran will not become a nuclear power, and how often does Bush bluff?
From what I’ve heard, the Israelis don’t have the range to hit targets in Iran without in-flight refueling, and after seeing the Osirak raid, the Iranians will have dispersed and hardened the targets, making the logistics even trickier.
The Israelis are unlikely to do anything without US approval, if not covert logistical assistance (in-air-refueling, at a minimum). They’re not going to go through US-controlled airspace if the US doesn’t want them to.
That means there is a likely scenario, a less likely scenario, and a least likely scenario.
The least likely scenario is that nothing happens. The Iranians call Bush’s bluff, and he folds. Anyone want to put money on this? Thought so.
The likely scenario is that the Israelis pull another Osirak-style strike, with very quiet US assistance (overflight, refueling & intel). They take the blame, the US wags it’s finger, the Europeans freak, and the Iranians take a hard look at their options. Diplomatically, it’s sub-optimal, operationally, it may not work. But it’s better than doing nothing.
The less likely scenario is that the US carries out the operation and lets Israel take the ‘blame’. Barring the Iranians getting really lucky and shooting down a B-2, see ‘likely scenario’ for political consequences.
Thoughts?
I think Bush is pulling another fast one, like he did with Tony. He owed Tony a favor and Tony wanted the road map started again. Bush said nope.
Bush ‘gave in’ to Europe in exchange for the EU naming Hizbollah a terrorist organization.
I think that’s huge.
That’ll help get Lebanon.
And will give us time to prove the Mullah’s ain’t going to honor their side of the bargain.
Bush wins.
Heh.
What else is new.